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Anderlecht vs PAOK Prediction: Key Stats, Team News, and Betting Tips

Anderlecht welcome PAOK to Lotto Park in Anderlecht on 13 August 2026 for the second leg of their UEFA Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round tie. The Belgians hold a slender advantage after a disciplined 1-0 away win in Thessaloniki on 6 August 2026, and now have the chance to finish the job in front of their own fans.

With a place in the UEFA Europa League play-off round on the line, the stakes are huge for both clubs. Anderlecht are unbeaten in the competition so far, combining solid defensive numbers with efficient attacking output. PAOK, meanwhile, have already shown they can score freely on the road in Europe and will need at least one goal in Belgium to keep their continental campaign alive.

The first leg was tight, but Anderlecht’s away victory shifts the pressure firmly onto PAOK. Expect a more open contest here as the Greek side chase the game, while the hosts look to exploit space on the counter and lean on their strong recent form in this Europa League qualifying campaign.

Anderlecht vs PAOK Key Stats

  • Anderlecht are unbeaten in Europa League 2026 qualifying so far, with 2 wins and 1 draw across 3 matches.
  • The only previous meeting between these sides came on 6 August 2026, when Anderlecht beat PAOK 1-0 away in Thessaloniki in the first leg.
  • Across their Europa League 2026 fixtures, Anderlecht average 1.7 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per match, while PAOK also average 1.7 scored but 1.0 conceded.

Anderlecht vs PAOK — Tale of the Tape

  • Position: Not available vs Not available
  • Points: Not available vs Not available
  • Goals For: Not available vs Not available
  • Goals Against: Not available vs Not available
  • Clean Sheets: Anderlecht 1 (tournament statistics), PAOK 1 (tournament statistics)

Formal group or league standings are not yet in play at this qualifying stage, but the underlying Europa League statistics give a clear picture of where both teams stand. Anderlecht have played 3 qualifying matches, winning 2 and drawing 1, scoring 5 and conceding just 2. That blend of control and resilience has underpinned their unbeaten start.

PAOK’s record is similar in attack, with 5 goals scored in 3 matches, but they have conceded 3 and already suffered one defeat — the first leg against Anderlecht. They have shown they can keep a clean sheet at home (2-0 in a previous tie) but also that they can be opened up, particularly when chasing games. With Anderlecht already holding a one-goal aggregate lead, the Belgians enter this second leg with the slightly stronger statistical platform.

Anderlecht vs PAOK Key Matchups

Anderlecht attack vs PAOK defence

Without individual scorer data, the duel is best framed in unit terms. Anderlecht’s attack has produced 5 goals in 3 Europa League matches, including 3 in their single home outing (a 3-1 win). An average of 3.0 goals scored at home in this run highlights how dangerous they can be in front of their own fans. PAOK’s defence, by contrast, concedes an average of 1.0 goal per game overall and 2.0 away from home in this campaign, suggesting they are more vulnerable on their travels. If Anderlecht maintain their current attacking tempo, PAOK will be under sustained pressure.

PAOK forwards vs Anderlecht back line

PAOK have also scored 5 goals in 3 Europa League matches, with a particularly impressive 3 goals in their single away fixture so far (an away win by 2-3). That 3.0 goals-per-game away average shows they can be explosive when given space. Anderlecht’s defence, however, has been tight: just 2 goals conceded in 3 games, and they have yet to lose. With an average of only 0.7 goals conceded per match, Anderlecht have shown they can manage games effectively. The battle between PAOK’s need to attack and Anderlecht’s organised back line is likely to define the tie.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

This is a relatively fresh European matchup, with only one recent encounter between the sides in this qualifying campaign. That first leg in Greece gives us the clearest reference point heading into the return fixture in Belgium.

  • 06 August 2026: PAOK 0-1 Anderlecht (UEFA Europa League)

Anderlecht vs PAOK Prediction

Stats suggest a finely balanced second leg. The prediction model gives Anderlecht a 45% chance of winning on the night, with a 45% chance of a draw and only a 10% probability for a PAOK victory. That aligns with the first-leg pattern: Anderlecht are hard to beat and have shown an ability to manage tight European ties, while PAOK must open up to overturn the deficit.

Both sides average 1.7 goals scored per game in this Europa League run, and both have hit at least 5 goals across their 3 fixtures. Anderlecht’s home scoring rate (3.0 per game) and PAOK’s away scoring rate (3.0 per game) both point toward goals, especially with the Greeks forced to chase. At the same time, Anderlecht’s defensive numbers and their away clean sheet in Thessaloniki hint at a team comfortable in controlling game states.

Given the high draw probability and Anderlecht’s “win or draw” edge, a cautious expectation is that the hosts avoid defeat again, with PAOK possibly finding the net this time as they push forward. A tight, competitive match with both teams scoring looks plausible, but Anderlecht’s aggregate advantage and defensive structure should see them through.

Predicted Score: Anderlecht 1-1 PAOK

Anderlecht Recent Form

Anderlecht’s recent Europa League form reads as unbeaten, with 2 wins and 1 draw from 3 matches. They have scored 5 goals and conceded only 2, keeping 1 clean sheet. At home in this campaign, they have been particularly strong, winning their sole match 3-1. Their form profile is that of a side that rarely looks in trouble, combining efficient attacking play with a solid defensive base.

PAOK Recent Form

PAOK come into this second leg with 2 wins and 1 defeat from their 3 Europa League qualifiers so far. They have scored 5 and conceded 3, with 1 clean sheet and one game in which they failed to score — the 0-1 home loss to Anderlecht. Their away form is a positive: 1 win from 1 away match, scoring 3 goals in that fixture. However, the first-leg defeat has put them under pressure, and they now need to reproduce that away attacking spark against a more robust defensive opponent.

Anderlecht Possible Starting Lineup

With no official lineup data for this fixture, only key squad options can be highlighted. Anderlecht’s goalkeeping options include C. Coosemans, J. Heekeren, and young M. Seghers. In defence, they can call on L. Augustinsson, G. Biancone, L. Hey, Z. Keita, M. N’Diaye, L. Pétrot, K. Sardella, B. Vroninks, A. de Ridder, and M. Kana. Midfield choices feature L. Ambros, I. Camara, N. Kalonji Kafumpata, E. Llansana, K. Nga, N. Saliba, M. Stroeykens, O. Antman, T. Degreef, C. Huerta, and Jayden Onia Seke, while attacking options include N. Cobiella, A. Bertaccini, M. Cvetkovic, E. Dao, and D. Sikan.

Recent Europa League statistics show Anderlecht have mainly used 4-4-2 (twice) and 4-3-3 (once), suggesting a preference for balanced, flexible shapes. With no reported absences, the coach has scope to rotate within those systems, using full-backs like Augustinsson and Biancone to provide width and midfielders such as Stroeykens and Antman to link play. The depth in attacking positions should allow Anderlecht to counter-attack effectively while protecting their aggregate lead.

PAOK Possible Starting Lineup

PAOK’s goalkeeping department is deep, with D. Monastirlis, Vasileios Nikolakoulis, J. Pavlenka, and A. Tsiftsis all available. In defence, options include A. Baba, D. Bataoulas, Elustondo, P. Hatzidiakos, J. Gómez, J. Kenny, G. Kosidis, D. Kottas, L. Lyratzis, G. Michailidis, G. Sideras, G. Taylor, and K. Thymianis. Midfield is well stocked with M. Camara, K. Despodov, G. Konstantelias, S. Meïté, D. Pelkas, B. Santamaría, Taison, D. Tsopouroglou, C. Zafeiris, A. Živković, and D. Chatsidis. Up front, attacking options include T. Ali, M. Balde, D. Berdos, B. Dunga, A. Jeremejeff, and A. Mythou.

PAOK have consistently lined up in a 4-2-3-1 across their 3 Europa League qualifiers, indicating a clear tactical identity. That shape allows them to field creative midfielders like Despodov, Pelkas, Taison, or Živković behind a central striker such as Ali or Jeremejeff. With the need to overturn a deficit, expect PAOK to lean into that attacking midfield depth, pushing full-backs like Baba or Kenny high to overload the flanks, while still relying on experienced centre-backs such as Hatzidiakos or Elustondo to hold the line.

Anderlecht Team News

No significant absences reported.

PAOK Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Anderlecht:

  • None reported.

PAOK:

  • None reported.

Betting Tips: Anderlecht vs PAOK

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

  • Result Tip: Double chance Anderlecht or Draw. The prediction model gives Anderlecht a 45% chance to win and the draw also at 45%, leaving just 10% for a PAOK victory. Anderlecht are unbeaten in 3 Europa League matches and have already won 1-0 away in Thessaloniki. Market odds for the match winner show Anderlecht as a slight underdog (home odds between 2.80 and 2.94, implying roughly 34.0%–35.7% chance), but the underlying form suggests they are more resilient than the prices indicate. Taking them on the double chance covers both a home win and a draw while aligning with the “win or draw” edge.
  • Goals Tip: Over 1.5 total goals. Both sides average 1.7 goals scored per match in this Europa League run, and PAOK’s only away game finished 2-3, while Anderlecht’s only home game ended 3-1. With PAOK needing to attack to overturn the deficit, a more open encounter is likely. The main odds set (home 2.80–2.94, draw 3.00–3.15, away 2.55–2.68) reflect a relatively balanced contest rather than a cagey one, and the advice around “+1.5 goals” supports a goals-based angle above the very low lines.
  • Value Tip: Draw in the Match Winner market. The draw is priced between 3.00 and 3.15 across bookmakers, implying an approximate probability range of 31.7%–33.3%, while the prediction model assigns the stalemate a 45% likelihood. That gap between model probability and market pricing suggests potential value on the draw, especially given Anderlecht’s ability to manage a lead and PAOK’s attacking threat. A 1-1 outcome would fit both the statistical profiles and the tactical scenario.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.

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