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AS Roma vs Cagliari Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

AS Roma welcome Cagliari to Stadio Olimpico in Rome on 27 October 2026 for a Serie A Regular Season - 9 clash that could further underline the hosts’ title credentials. Roma arrive in outstanding domestic shape, unbeaten after eight league games and sitting third with 18 points, while Cagliari have made a solid if unspectacular start and occupy eighth with 13 points.

With Roma already boasting one of the division’s most potent attacks and tightest defences, this fixture looks like a key test of their consistency at home, where they have taken 10 points from a possible 12. Cagliari, meanwhile, have travelled well so far and will lean on their away resilience to disrupt the favourites and stay in touch with the European-chasing pack.

For bettors and neutral fans alike, this AS Roma vs Cagliari matchup offers an intriguing blend of historical dominance from Roma at the Olimpico and a Cagliari side that has recently shown they can spring surprises, as they did in December 2025. The context, numbers and head-to-head record all point to a high‑stakes evening in the capital.

AS Roma vs Cagliari Key Stats

  • Roma are 3rd in Serie A with 18 points from 8 matches, unbeaten with 5 wins and 3 draws, scoring 19 and conceding just 6.
  • At Stadio Olimpico, Roma have beaten Cagliari 2-0 (09 February 2026), 1-0 (16 March 2025) and 4-0 (05 February 2024) in their last three home Serie A meetings.
  • In 2026 Serie A statistics, Roma average 2.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game across 8 matches, with 5 clean sheets.

AS Roma vs Cagliari — Tale of the Tape

  • Position: 3 vs 8
  • Points: 18 vs 13
  • Goals For: 19 vs 6
  • Goals Against: 6 vs 9
  • Clean Sheets: Roma 5, Cagliari 3 (2026 Serie A statistics)

Standings underline Roma’s status as clear favourites. After 8 league games, they have collected 18 points with a +13 goal difference (19 scored, 6 conceded). They are strong both home and away, with 3 wins and 1 draw in 4 home fixtures (10 goals for, 3 against) and similarly solid numbers on the road. Their form line of DWDDW in the standings disguises an underlying run of 5 wins and 3 draws in 8 according to their broader statistics, with no defeats.

Cagliari sit 8th with 13 points from 8 games and a -3 goal difference (6 scored, 9 conceded). They have been better away than at home: 3 wins and 1 defeat in 4 away matches, scoring 4 and conceding 5. At home they have struggled for goals (2 scored in 4), but defensively they have generally remained competitive. The table suggests a clear gap in attacking output, with Roma more than tripling Cagliari’s goals so far.

AS Roma vs Cagliari Key Matchups

Donyell Malen vs Daniel Maldini

Donyell Malen has been Roma’s headline attacking force in this Serie A campaign. In 6 appearances (all starts, 398 minutes), he has scored 6 goals, averaging a goal every 66 minutes. He has taken 17 shots with 10 on target, underlining his efficiency, and contributed 8 key passes from 73 total passes at 84% accuracy. His dribbling (19 attempts, 12 successful) and duels (36 contested, 20 won) show how often he engages and beats defenders in the final third, even if his aggression has also brought 1 yellow and 1 red card.

Daniel Maldini is Cagliari’s main attacking threat from midfield. He has 4 goals in 7 starts (505 minutes), a strong return for a midfielder, with 9 shots (5 on target) and 170 passes at 81% accuracy. He also offers defensive work: 5 tackles, 1 block and 8 interceptions, plus 52 duels (22 won). While Malen is more of a pure finisher and dribbler, Maldini’s all‑round contribution and late runs from midfield will be vital if Cagliari are to hurt Roma’s otherwise stingy back line.

Paulo Dybala vs Michel Ndary Adopo

Paulo Dybala has been Roma’s creative hub. In 6 appearances (all starts, 496 minutes), he has delivered 4 assists and taken 19 shots (6 on target), with 25 key passes from 269 total passes at 81% accuracy. His rating of 7.88 reflects his influence as a playmaker, while 16 duels won and 16 dribble attempts (4 successful) show he still carries the ball into dangerous areas regularly.

Michel Ndary Adopo is a key link-man in Cagliari’s midfield. Across 7 full‑match appearances (630 minutes), he has provided 2 assists, taken 2 shots (both on target) and completed 259 passes with 9 key passes at an impressive 84% accuracy. Defensively, he contributes 7 tackles and 5 interceptions, plus 45 duels with 20 won. His ability to resist Roma’s press and progress the ball will be crucial in limiting Dybala’s time on the ball and in launching counters for Maldini and the forwards.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

Recent head-to-head history strongly favours Roma, especially at Stadio Olimpico, although Cagliari have occasionally sprung a surprise in Sardinia. The last ten Serie A meetings show Roma generally finding ways to score, with several multi-goal wins at home.

  • 09 February 2026: AS Roma 2-0 Cagliari (Serie A)
  • 07 December 2025: Cagliari 1-0 AS Roma (Serie A)
  • 16 March 2025: AS Roma 1-0 Cagliari (Serie A)
  • 18 August 2024: Cagliari 0-0 AS Roma (Serie A)
  • 05 February 2024: AS Roma 4-0 Cagliari (Serie A)

AS Roma vs Cagliari Prediction

All indicators point towards Roma controlling this contest. Their recent form in league play is excellent: unbeaten with strong attacking numbers (2.4 goals scored per game and only 0.8 conceded across 8 matches) and 5 clean sheets. Cagliari’s recent run is more mixed but respectable, with their broader 2026 statistics showing 4 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in 7, averaging 0.9 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match.

Head-to-head trends, particularly in Rome, are heavily tilted towards Roma, who have beaten Cagliari 2-0, 1-0 and 4-0 in their last three home Serie A meetings. The prediction model gives Roma a 45% chance of victory, the draw also 45%, and Cagliari just 10%. That aligns with the market, where Roma are a short‑priced favourite. Cagliari’s away record suggests they can be competitive, but their limited scoring output and Roma’s defensive solidity make it difficult to see them creating enough chances, especially if Dybala and Malen continue their current form.

Predicted Score: AS Roma 2-0 Cagliari

AS Roma Recent Form

Roma’s standings form reads DWDDW, reflecting a side that is very hard to beat. Across 8 league games they have 5 wins and 3 draws, with 19 goals scored and 6 conceded. At home they have taken 3 wins and 1 draw from 4, scoring 10 and conceding 3. In their broader recent run (8-match statistics string WWWWDDWD), they have put together a four‑game winning streak and a six‑game unbeaten sequence, underlining both consistency and resilience.

Cagliari Recent Form

Cagliari’s standings form of LLDWW shows a team that has recovered well after a poor patch. Overall in 8 league matches they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats, with 6 goals scored and 9 conceded. Their away form is a clear strength: 3 wins and 1 defeat in 4 away games, scoring 4 and conceding 5. The broader 2026 statistics form string WLWWWDL highlights a three‑match winning streak earlier in the campaign, but also suggests some volatility compared to Roma’s steadiness.

AS Roma Possible Starting Lineup

Key available players (by position):
Goalkeepers: M. Svilar, P. Gollini, G. De Marzi, Devis Vasquez
Defenders: Hermoso, G. Mancini, E. Ndicka, L. Balerdi, D. Ghilardi, K. Koulierakis, D. Rensch, M. Seck
Midfielders: B. Cristante, L. Pellegrini, P. Dybala, M. Koné, N. Molina, Wesley, N. Pisilli, G. Giammattei, E. Lulli, M. Bah (listed but missing this fixture), Rodrigo Mora
Forwards: D. Malen, M. Soulé, S. Castro, A. Arena, M. Camara

Roma have primarily used a back three this season, with formations such as 3-4-2-1 and 3-4-1-2 appearing most often. That suggests a structure built around a solid defensive trio (with Hermoso and Mancini key figures), wing‑backs providing width, and creative support from Dybala and Soulé behind Malen as the central striker. With 5 clean sheets and only 1 match without scoring in their 2026 statistics, the balance between attack and defence looks well calibrated, even allowing for the absence of young midfielder M. Bah.

Cagliari Possible Starting Lineup

Key available players (by position):
Goalkeepers: E. Caprile, B. Radunović, A. Sherri
Defenders: Y. Mina, Zé Pedro, A. Obert, G. Aurelio, Y. Sugawara, J. Rodríguez
Midfielders: D. Maldini, M. Adopo, A. Deiola, H. Winks, J. Fazzini, M. Felici, R. Gagliardini, A. Akarakiri, N. Grandu, R. Kofler, J. Liteta, Y. Massolin, A. Romano, Ivan Stoyanov Sulev
Forwards: Kevin Carlos, A. Fadera, R. Ciervo, M'Bala Nzola, P. Mendy, A. Sugamele, Y. Trepy

Cagliari have experimented tactically, using systems such as 4-2-3-1, 4-3-2-1, 4-4-1-1, 5-3-2 and 4-3-1-2. That flexibility allows them to add an extra defender or midfielder depending on the opponent. With 3 clean sheets from 7 matches in their 2026 statistics, they can be organised at the back, particularly when deploying a back five. Offensively, they rely heavily on Maldini’s goals from midfield and Adopo’s distribution, with forwards like Kevin Carlos and M'Bala Nzola offering physical presence but relatively modest scoring numbers so far.

AS Roma Team News

Roma have one confirmed absentee for this fixture: young midfielder M. Bah is ruled out with a Jumpers Knee problem. Otherwise, no significant absences are reported, leaving the core of their in‑form attack and defence available.

Cagliari Team News

Cagliari will be without Riyad Idrissi, who is also sidelined with a Jumpers Knee injury. Beyond that, there are no other confirmed missing players listed, giving the visitors reasonable depth to choose from in midfield and attack.

Injuries & Suspensions

AS Roma:

  • M. Bah — Reason: Jumpers Knee

Cagliari:

  • Riyad Idrissi — Reason: Jumpers Knee

Betting Tips: AS Roma vs Cagliari

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

  • Result Tip: Back AS Roma to win. Roma have superior attacking and defensive numbers (19 scored, 6 conceded vs Cagliari’s 6 and 9), a dominant home H2H record, and a 45% win probability against only 10% for Cagliari. The market strongly agrees: home odds range from 1.33 to 1.40, implying an approximate winning probability between about 71.4% (1 ÷ 1.40 × 100) and 75.2% (1 ÷ 1.33 × 100). Those odds reflect Roma as clear favourites.
  • Goals Tip: Roma to win to nil or under 3.5 total goals is attractive. Roma concede just 0.8 goals per game across 8 matches and have 5 clean sheets, while Cagliari average only 0.9 goals scored. Recent Olimpico meetings ended 2-0, 1-0 and 4-0 to Roma. With the draw priced between 4.60 and 5.20 (implied roughly 19.2% to 21.7%) and Cagliari between 8.00 and 9.84 (about 10.2% to 12.5%), the market expects a controlled Roma win rather than a goal-fest.
  • Value Tip: Consider Roma -1 handicap or a Roma win combined with Malen to score (where available). Malen has 6 goals in 6 league appearances and leads Roma’s scoring charts, while comparison indices heavily favour Roma in attack and goals. With away odds as long as 9.84 for Cagliari and Roma’s dominance in H2H and current form, backing Roma to win by at least two goals offers a potentially better risk‑reward profile than the short straight home price.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.

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