AS Roma vs Fiorentina Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Serie A returns to the Stadio Olimpico on 24 August 2026 as AS Roma host Fiorentina in the opening round of the new campaign. Under the lights in Rome, two sides with European ambitions meet in a fixture that has produced drama and goals in recent years.

Roma start the season listed 16th and Fiorentina 5th in the provisional standings, both on 0 points with no games played yet. That ranking mainly reflects last season’s finish, but it underlines the expectation that Fiorentina should again be in the mix for Europa League places, while Roma are under pressure to reassert themselves as top‑four contenders. With bookmakers strongly siding with a home win but prediction models giving Fiorentina a real chance of taking something, this shapes up as one of the standout early fixtures on the Serie A calendar.

AS Roma vs Fiorentina Key Stats

• Both teams start the 2026 Serie A season on 0 points and 0 goals scored or conceded, with Roma provisionally 16th and Fiorentina 5th.
• In their last three meetings at the Stadio Olimpico in Serie A (2023–2025), Roma have beaten Fiorentina 4-0, 1-0 and 2-0.
• Across their 2026 Serie A statistics to date, both Roma and Fiorentina are yet to play a match, with 0 clean sheets and 0 goals scored or conceded for each side.

AS Roma vs Fiorentina — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 16 vs 5
• Points: 0 vs 0
• Goals For: 0 vs 0
• Goals Against: 0 vs 0
• Clean Sheets: 0 vs 0

With the 2026 Serie A season yet to kick off, the raw numbers do not separate these sides: 0 games played, 0 goals scored, 0 conceded and no clean sheets for either team in the new campaign. The early ranking of Fiorentina in 5th and Roma in 16th is effectively a carry-over of last season’s performance levels rather than a reflection of current form.

Historically, Roma enjoy a strong home advantage in this fixture, and that is baked into both the odds and prediction models. However, Fiorentina’s higher provisional rank and Europa League description underline that they arrive with European-level expectations and a squad built to compete at the top half of the table. This opener will be an early barometer of whether Roma can close that perceived gap or whether Fiorentina will again set the pace between the two.

AS Roma vs Fiorentina Key Matchups

Paulo Dybala vs Moise Kean

Player-specific scoring and assist data for the new Serie A season is not yet available, but the squad lists highlight Paulo Dybala as one of Roma’s primary attacking threats and Moise Kean as a key forward option for Fiorentina. Dybala, now 32 and wearing the number 21 shirt, remains Roma’s most technically gifted attacker, capable of operating between the lines and deciding games with moments of quality. Kean, 25 and wearing number 9, offers Fiorentina pace and physical presence up front, ideal for exploiting space on transitions.

With both teams yet to play in 2026, this matchup is more about profiles than current numbers: Dybala’s creativity and link play against Kean’s direct running and penalty-box movement. If Roma dominate possession at home as expected, Dybala’s influence in tight spaces around the box could be decisive, while Kean’s threat will likely come from fewer but high-value chances on the break.

Lorenzo Pellegrini vs Nicolò Fagioli

In midfield, Roma captain Lorenzo Pellegrini (29, number 7) and Fiorentina’s Nicolò Fagioli (24, number 44) are set to be central figures. Pellegrini brings leadership, set-piece quality and late runs into the box, making him crucial to Roma’s attacking patterns. Fagioli, a technically adept midfielder, offers Fiorentina control in possession and the ability to progress the ball through midfield.

Without fresh statistical lines for the new season, the battle here is framed by roles: Pellegrini as Roma’s creative heartbeat and Fagioli as Fiorentina’s tempo-setter. Whichever of these two can impose their style — Pellegrini pushing Roma higher and creating chances, or Fagioli helping Fiorentina bypass Roma’s press — will go a long way to deciding the rhythm of the game.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

Recent clashes between Roma and Fiorentina have been tight but often high-stakes encounters, with momentum swinging between the Olimpico and the Artemio Franchi. The last five Serie A meetings paint a picture of a fixture where home advantage has frequently mattered.

• 4 May 2026: AS Roma 4-0 Fiorentina (Serie A)
• 5 October 2025: Fiorentina 1-2 AS Roma (Serie A)
• 4 May 2025: AS Roma 1-0 Fiorentina (Serie A)
• 27 October 2024: Fiorentina 5-1 AS Roma (Serie A)
• 10 March 2024: Fiorentina 2-2 AS Roma (Serie A)

AS Roma vs Fiorentina Prediction

Stats suggest a strong Roma tilt at the Olimpico. The comparison model leans clearly towards the Giallorossi, with Roma leading the overall index 63.5 to 36.5 and the head-to-head index 71 to 29. The prediction block gives Roma a 45% chance of winning, a 45% chance of a draw and only a 10% chance of a Fiorentina victory. That aligns with the bookmakers, who have Roma as a clear favourite, but also flags a substantial probability that Fiorentina can avoid defeat.

Roma’s recent home dominance in this fixture — including a 4-0 win in May 2026 and a 1-0 success in May 2025 — supports the expectation that they will control territory and possession. However, Fiorentina’s ability to score heavily at home (5-1 in October 2024) and their status as a Europa League-level side mean they should not be discounted, especially early in the season when rhythm and sharpness can be uneven.

With predictions.goals values not specified as concrete scores, a conservative forecast is appropriate. The high draw probability (45%) suggests a tight contest where Roma have the edge but may not fully convert their superiority.

Predicted Score: AS Roma 1-1 Fiorentina

AS Roma Recent Form

Roma enter the 2026 Serie A opener without any competitive matches played in the new league campaign. Their league form field is currently blank, so there is no official recent run of results to draw on within this season. The most relevant pointers come from head-to-head history, where Roma have been strong at home to Fiorentina, but in terms of current-season form, they start with a clean slate.

Fiorentina Recent Form

Fiorentina are in the same situation: no 2026 Serie A fixtures played yet and no league form string recorded. Their recent trajectory must be inferred from last season’s standing and the Europa League stage description, which signals a side that has been consistently competitive domestically. For this specific match, though, both teams are effectively beginning from zero in terms of measurable 2026 form.

AS Roma Possible Starting Lineup

With no official lineups released for this fixture, a precise XI cannot be confirmed, but Roma’s key options are clear: goalkeepers M. Svilar, P. Gollini and G. De Marzi; defenders such as G. Mancini, Hermoso, E. Ndicka, N. Molina and D. Rensch; midfielders including B. Cristante, L. Pellegrini, M. Koné and N. El Aynaoui; and forwards led by P. Dybala, D. Malen and M. Soulé.

That squad profile points towards a back line anchored by Mancini and Ndicka, with Pellegrini and Cristante central to the midfield structure and Dybala plus Malen providing the main attacking thrust. Tactically, Roma are likely to build around a creative core of Pellegrini and Dybala, aiming to dominate possession at home and supply their forwards in advanced areas.

Fiorentina Possible Starting Lineup

Fiorentina also have a deep squad to choose from. In goal, options include O. Christensen and David de Gea. Defensively, Dodô, R. Drăgușin, M. Pongračić, F. Parisi and L. Ranieri headline the back line. Midfield choices feature R. Mandragora, M. Brescianini, N. Fagioli, G. Fabbian and C. Ndour, while in attack Fiorentina can turn to M. Kean, A. Guðmundsson, M’Bala Nzola, Mateo Pellegrino and others.

Given this balance, Fiorentina are well equipped to mix solidity at the back with technical quality in midfield and multiple forward profiles. Away at the Olimpico, they may prioritise defensive structure with Drăgușin and Pongračić, look to Mandragora and Fagioli to control phases of play, and rely on Kean or Nzola to stretch Roma on the counter.

AS Roma Team News

No significant absences reported.

Fiorentina Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

AS Roma:

• None reported.

Fiorentina:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: AS Roma vs Fiorentina

Below are three data-backed betting angles for this Serie A opener.

• Result Tip: Back AS Roma to win (Home). Roma are given a 45% win probability with only 10% assigned to a Fiorentina victory, and the comparison indices also favour the hosts. Across major bookmakers, home odds range from 1.52 to 1.63, implying an approximate probability band of 61.3% to 65.8%. That aligns with Roma’s strong recent home record against Fiorentina and justifies them as the primary result selection.
• Goals Tip: Under a high goals line (cautious total goals approach). With both teams yet to play in the 2026 season, there is no current goals-per-game baseline, and prediction probabilities lean heavily towards a result-focused market rather than an open, high-scoring contest. While specific under/over odds are not listed, the combination of a high draw probability (45%) and opening-day caution suggests a tighter game than some past scorelines, making a conservative goals position (such as avoiding very high goal totals) a reasonable angle.
• Value Tip: Draw in the Match Winner market. The draw is rated at 45% in the prediction block — equal to Roma’s win probability — yet bookmakers price the draw between 3.65 and 4.24, which corresponds to an implied probability of roughly 23.6% to 27.4%. That gap between modelled draw likelihood and market pricing indicates potential value on the stalemate, especially with both teams starting a new season and Fiorentina strong enough on paper to resist sustained pressure.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.