Played in Lisbon on 17 February 2026, this UEFA Champions League Round of 32 clash brings together a Benfica side ranked 24th in the league standings against 9th-placed Real Madrid. Both clubs have already secured promotion from the league stage into the play-offs. The most recent meeting between them, also in Lisbon in the league stage, ended in a 4–2 home win for Benfica, a result that gives the Portuguese side a psychological boost despite their lower ranking.
Team Analysis
Benfica come into this game with mixed but improving momentum: their league table form reads “WLWWL”, and their broader Champions League form string is “WWDWLLLLWWLW”, suggesting recent upturn after a poor mid-run. At home they have been solid: 2 wins and 2 defeats in the league stage, with 8 goals scored and 6 conceded. Season-wide, Benfica average 1.8 goals scored per home game and concede only 1.0, with 3 home clean sheets in 6. However, a long injury list (A. Bah, N. Felix, R. Rios, S. Soares, J. Veloso all ruled out) could stretch depth. Creativity should still come from top assister Fredrik Aursnes (4 assists), a key link in their build-up.
Real Madrid, despite a “LWLWL” league-stage form line, remain one of the most dangerous attacking sides in the competition. They have 21 goals in 8 league games, including 11 away, and average 2.8 goals scored per away match, though they concede 2.0 away. Their overall clean-sheet count (only 2 in 8) underlines a high-event profile. The statistics highlight Kylian Mbappé as the standout: 13 goals in 7 appearances, with 30 shots and 22 on target, making him the main threat. Real Madrid are weakened defensively and offensively by absences: Jude Bellingham, Éder Militão and Rodrygo are all listed as missing, which slightly reduces their ceiling but does not erase their attacking edge, especially with Vinícius Júnior and Arda Güler among the top assist providers.
Real Madrid are averaging 2.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per away game in this Champions League campaign.
Verdict
The statistics suggest an open, attacking game. Benfica’s strong home scoring rate (1.8 per game) against a Real Madrid defense conceding 2.0 away points to the hosts finding the net. However, history in this campaign and goal metrics clearly favor Real Madrid’s firepower.
Most likely outcome: Real Madrid win in a high-scoring match. Predicted score: Benfica 2–3 Real Madrid.
