Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Benfica welcome AZ Alkmaar to Lisbon on 28 January 2027 in the UEFA Europa League League Stage – 8, with the Portuguese side looking to turn their strong continental momentum into another statement performance. The match will be played in the Portuguese capital, where Benfica have been ruthless in Europe so far in this campaign.

In the overall Europa League standings, Benfica are currently 4th in the League Round group, while AZ Alkmaar sit 3rd. Both sides are on 0 points with no league-stage games played yet, but Benfica’s recent Europa League statistics paint them as one of the most dangerous attacking outfits in the competition. AZ, by contrast, are stepping into this phase with a clean slate and no competitive Europa League minutes logged this season.

With Benfica’s attack already firing and AZ Alkmaar still an unknown quantity at this level in 2026, this clash has all the ingredients of a fascinating tactical battle. The predictions market is effectively split, assigning 33% to a Benfica win, 33% to a draw and 33% to an AZ victory, underlining just how open this encounter appears on paper.

Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar Key Stats

• Benfica have taken 4 wins from 6 Europa League fixtures this season, scoring 19 goals and conceding just 6.
• There are no recent head-to-head meetings recorded between Benfica and AZ Alkmaar in this Europa League dataset.
• Across 6 Europa League matches, Benfica average 3.2 goals scored per game and just 1.0 conceded, with 4 of those 6 games going over 2.5 goals.

Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 4 vs 3
• Points: 0 vs 0
• Goals For: 0 vs 0
• Goals Against: 0 vs 0
• Clean Sheets: Benfica 1 (tournament statistics) vs AZ Alkmaar 0 (tournament statistics)

Although the League Stage table currently shows both teams on 0 points and with no goals scored or conceded, Benfica arrive with a clear statistical edge from their broader Europa League campaign. Over 6 fixtures, they have 4 wins, 1 draw and just 1 defeat, with a goal difference of +13 (19 scored, 6 conceded). That attacking output is particularly striking, powered by multiple high-scoring home performances.

AZ Alkmaar, by contrast, have yet to play a Europa League match in this dataset for 2026, leaving their true level somewhat opaque. They are listed 3rd in the League Round group, one place above Benfica’s 4th, but with no fixtures played, that rank is largely nominal at this stage. The Dutch side’s clean-sheet tally is also at zero, while Benfica have already registered one shut-out in their tournament statistics.

Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar Key Matchups

V. Pavlidis vs J. Hornkamp

V. Pavlidis has been the standout figure in Benfica’s Europa League campaign. The forward has 5 goals and 1 assist in just 3 appearances, making him both the top scorer and joint-top assist provider for the club in this competition. He has also picked up 1 yellow card, underlining how involved he is in the physical side of the game as well as the attacking output.

For AZ Alkmaar, there is no Europa League-specific scoring data available yet, but within their squad profile, J. Hornkamp stands out as an experienced attacker at 27 years old. As a natural forward, he is likely to shoulder a significant share of AZ’s attacking responsibility. The key battle will be whether Hornkamp and AZ’s front line can keep pace with the clinical edge that Pavlidis has already demonstrated on the European stage.

Rafa vs C. Stengs

Rafa has been another crucial attacking weapon for Benfica. Listed as a midfielder/forward, he has 2 goals and 1 assist across 4 Europa League appearances. His ability to both score and create makes him a natural link between midfield and attack, and his clean disciplinary record in this competition (no yellow or red cards) suggests he balances aggression with control.

On the AZ side, C. Stengs is the creative fulcrum to watch. At 27 and operating as a midfielder, he has the technical profile to unlock defences. While we lack hard Europa League numbers for Stengs in this dataset, his role and experience suggest he will be central to AZ’s attempts to break Benfica’s structure. The duel between Rafa’s end-product and Stengs’ creativity could heavily influence which team controls the tempo and territory.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

There are no recent recorded head-to-head fixtures between Benfica and AZ Alkmaar in this Europa League data. This meeting in Lisbon will therefore serve as a fresh tactical and psychological benchmark for both clubs in European competition.

Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction

Statistically, Benfica come into this tie as the more battle-hardened Europa League side. Their recent tournament form shows 4 wins from 6, a prolific attack averaging 3.2 goals per game, and only 1.0 conceded on average. They have been especially devastating at home, with 14 goals scored in 3 home fixtures (an average of 4.7 per game) and just 2 conceded.

AZ Alkmaar, on the other hand, enter with a blank slate in terms of Europa League numbers for 2026. That makes them a dangerous unknown, but it also means they lack the proven cutting edge and rhythm that Benfica have already established. The comparison model heavily favours Benfica in form and attack indices, while AZ hold a theoretical edge only in the defensive comparison, which is skewed by their lack of games played.

The probability block for the 1X2 outcome is evenly split: 33% Benfica win, 33% draw, 33% AZ win. In practice, given Benfica’s firepower and home advantage, the underlying performance metrics point towards the Portuguese side having the stronger platform. However, AZ’s fresh start and tactical flexibility could keep the game competitive, particularly in the early stages.

Predicted Score: Benfica 2-1 AZ Alkmaar

Benfica Recent Form

Benfica’s Europa League recent form is excellent. Their league-related form string reads LWWDWW, reflecting just one defeat in their last six tournament matches and a strong run of wins. Across those 6 fixtures, they have 4 victories, 1 draw and 1 loss, with 19 goals scored and only 6 conceded. They have also kept 1 clean sheet in the competition and have yet to fail to score in any Europa League outing.

AZ Alkmaar Recent Form

AZ Alkmaar have no recorded Europa League form in this 2026 dataset. With 0 fixtures played, 0 goals scored and 0 conceded, they arrive as a statistical unknown in European terms this season. Their recent form in other competitions is not detailed here, so any assessment of their momentum must be inferred from squad depth and experience rather than concrete Europa League results.

Benfica Possible Starting Lineup

Potential key players for Benfica (grouped by position):
Goalkeepers: A. Trubin, Samuel Soares, Diogo Ferreira
Defenders: C. Lenglet, A. Bah, Tomás Araújo, S. Dahl, A. Circati, S. El Karouani, J. Neto, Rui Silva, Gabriel Indio
Midfielders: Joāo Palhinha, L. Barreiro, E. Barrenechea, H. Sudakov, J. Kamiński, Manu, F. Aursnes, C. Echeverri, Gonçalo Carvalho Moreira, M. Figueiredo, A. Schjelderup, Rafa, G. Prestianni
Forwards/Attackers: V. Pavlidis, D. Lukebakio, J. Durán, Bruma, A. Cabral, Felipe Lima

Based on their Europa League statistics, Benfica are likely to continue with an attacking shape, often using a 4-2-3-1 or 4-1-3-2, as those are the formations most frequently deployed (3 and 2 times respectively). Pavlidis should spearhead the attack given his 5 goals and 1 assist, with Rafa, D. Lukebakio and creative midfielders like H. Sudakov and J. Kamiński supporting. At the back, C. Lenglet and Tomás Araújo have both contributed goals from defence, while A. Bah offers width and has 1 assist and 1 yellow card in the tournament. The depth in midfield and attack suggests Benfica can maintain a high tempo and rotate options without significantly dropping quality.

AZ Alkmaar Possible Starting Lineup

Key available players for AZ Alkmaar (grouped by position):
Goalkeepers: R. Owusu-Oduro, H. Verhulst, J. Zoet, J. De Busser, I. Ka
Defenders: W. Goes, W. Hoedt, M. Chávez, E. Dijkstra, R. Ichihara, D. Kasius, S. Maikuma, A. Natali, L. Schouten, M. de Wit
Midfielders: J. Clasie, P. Koopmeiners, D. Kwakman, J. Oerip, S. Resink, R. Robbemond, K. Smit, H. de Wit, V. Byskov, R. Daal, C. Stengs
Forwards/Attackers: J. Hornkamp, M. Meerdink, Weslley Patati, B. Kovacs, A. Oufkir

Without Europa League match data for AZ, predicting a precise tactical setup is speculative, but the squad composition hints at a balanced 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 structure. Experienced midfielders like J. Clasie and P. Koopmeiners provide control and distribution, while C. Stengs offers creativity in advanced areas. In attack, J. Hornkamp and M. Meerdink are natural focal points, with wide options such as Weslley Patati giving pace and directness. Defensively, the presence of W. Hoedt and W. Goes suggests a blend of experience and athleticism at centre-back.

Benfica Team News

No significant absences reported.

AZ Alkmaar Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Benfica:

• None reported.

AZ Alkmaar:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

• Result Tip: Back Benfica Draw No Bet. With Benfica’s Europa League record showing 4 wins from 6 and a prolific attack, they look the more reliable side despite the official probability block splitting outcomes at 33% each. The Draw No Bet angle protects against the evenly-rated draw while leaning into Benfica’s stronger underlying numbers. (No odds data available in this feed.)
• Goals Tip: Over 2.5 goals. Benfica’s matches in this Europa League run have been high-scoring, with an average of 3.2 goals per game and 4 of 6 fixtures surpassing the 2.5-goal line. Their home average of 4.7 goals scored per game suggests another open contest, even allowing for AZ’s unknown profile. (No odds data available in this feed.)
• Value Tip: V. Pavlidis to score anytime. The Benfica forward has 5 goals and 1 assist in just 3 appearances, plus 1 yellow card showing he is constantly involved. Given his status as top scorer and top assist provider for Benfica in this competition, backing him to find the net again offers strong value relative to his output. (No odds data available in this feed.)

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change.
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