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Bologna vs AS Roma: Serie A Clash Preview

Stadio Renato Dall'Ara hosts a high‑stakes Serie A clash where Bologna, 8th with 48 points, face 6th‑placed AS Roma on 58 points. With only a few rounds left, Roma are chasing European consolidation, while Bologna are pushing to stay in the European conversation, making this a pivotal encounter for both.

Looking at recent form over comparable samples, Bologna’s last five show a 60% form index with balanced numbers in attack and defence: 5 goals scored and 5 conceded (1.0 for and 1.0 against per match). Roma’s last five are more volatile: a 47% form index but with a perfect 100% attack index and 0% defensive index, scoring 8 and conceding 8 (1.6 for and 1.6 against per match). Over the full league campaign, Roma have the stronger overall profile: 18‑4‑11 from 33, with a goal difference of +17 (46 for, 29 against). Bologna sit at 14‑6‑13 with a goal difference of +3 (42 for, 39 against).

Home/away splits are crucial for this fixture. Bologna at Dall’Ara are only 6‑2‑8, scoring 16 and conceding 18, averaging 1.0 scored and 1.1 conceded per home match. Roma away are 7‑1‑8, with 19 scored and 19 conceded, averaging 1.2 both scored and conceded per away match. Roma are clearly the stronger side overall, but their away record is inconsistent, while Bologna’s home numbers are modest yet competitive.

Offensively, Bologna’s league pattern shows a gradual build: they are most dangerous between minutes 46‑60 and 76‑90, with 10 and 8 goals respectively in those ranges. Roma’s goals are heavily clustered after the break as well, especially between 61‑75, where they have 13 goals, the single most productive window for either side. That timing alignment suggests a match likely to open up in the second half rather than from the start.

Defensively, Bologna concede 1.2 per match overall, with particular vulnerability between 46‑60 and 61‑75 (9 goals in each range). Roma concede 0.9 per match overall but 1.2 away, and they are most exposed late, with 9 goals conceded between 76‑90. The defensive metrics in the prediction model favour Bologna slightly (defence comparison 62% vs 38%), while attack comparison leans Roma (62% vs 38%).

Head-to-Head Data

Head‑to‑head data, excluding friendlies, underlines how competitive Bologna have become in this matchup. In Serie A:

  • On 23 August 2025, at Stadio Olimpico, Roma beat Bologna 1‑0.
  • On 12 January 2025, at Stadio Renato Dall’Ara, Bologna and Roma drew 2‑2.
  • On 10 November 2024, at Stadio Olimpico, Bologna won 3‑2.
  • On 22 April 2024, at Stadio Olimpico, Bologna won 3‑1.
  • On 17 December 2023, at Stadio Renato Dall’Ara, Bologna won 2‑0.
  • On 14 May 2023, at Stadio Renato Dall’Ara, the match finished 0‑0.
  • On 4 January 2023, at Stadio Olimpico, Roma won 1‑0.
  • On 1 May 2022, at Stadio Olimpico, Roma and Bologna drew 0‑0.

That gives, in Serie A alone: Bologna 3 wins, Roma 2 wins, and 3 draws over the last eight league meetings. In Europe, they met twice in the UEFA Europa League 1/8 final in March 2026: on 12 March 2026 in Bologna, the match ended 1‑1; on 19 March 2026 in Rome, Bologna won 4‑3 after extra time. Overall, Bologna have clearly held their own and often over‑performed against Roma in recent years, especially in knockout pressure situations.

The prediction model slightly edges the overall comparison towards Bologna (total comparison 52.5% vs 47.5%) and, crucially, flags the winner field as Bologna with the comment “Win or draw”. The probability split is 45% home, 45% draw, 10% away, strongly skewed against a Roma victory relative to market prices.

Bookmaker odds, however, make Roma slight favourites away: most firms have Bologna around 2.88–3.14, the draw around 3.10–3.40, and Roma around 2.32–2.50. Converting roughly, the market implies Roma’s win chance is significantly higher than the model’s 10%, while Bologna’s unbeaten probability (win or draw) is priced much lower than the model’s 90%.

Betting verdict: the model’s official advice is “Double chance : Bologna or draw”, and that aligns with the statistical edge in recent H2H and Bologna’s resilience at home versus Roma’s inconsistency away. From a value perspective, backing Bologna or draw in the double‑chance market is the recommended play, exploiting the gap between model probabilities (45% home, 45% draw, 10% away) and odds that still treat Roma as favourites. A tight, tactical match is likely, with Bologna slightly more likely to avoid defeat than the raw odds suggest.

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