Champions League 2026-27: Predictions and Favorites to Claim the Trophy

The Champions League returns with Paris St-Germain chasing a third consecutive title as the group stage kicks off this Tuesday. Five English clubs aim to stop PSG’s streak, with Arsenal tipped as favorites to improve on last year's runners-up finish.

Experts Julien Laurens and Guillem Balague share their views on the likely champions, while stats shed light on the contenders. Fans can also cast their votes on who will triumph. BBC will provide extensive coverage, including match highlights available at 22:00 BST on Wednesdays via BBC iPlayer and its platforms, plus a special Match of the Day on BBC One at 22:40. This week features additional highlights on Thursday at 22:30 on BBC Two.

Top Contenders

• Julien Laurens: Achieving three titles in a row would be monumental for PSG, but he doubts it’s feasible without a star like Cristiano Ronaldo. He expects PSG to reach at least the semi-finals. Laurens favors Bayern Munich and Arsenal to make the final, citing Arsenal’s strong defense as key to winning the trophy.
• Guillem Balague: PSG faces challenges maintaining consistency early in the season, with Luis Enrique pushing for dynamic, high-pressure play. Barcelona is performing well, though needing reinforcements at centre-back and striker. Arsenal's newfound winning rhythm boosts their chances. Balague predicts PSG, Barcelona, Arsenal, and either Bayern, Real Madrid, or Manchester City will reach the semis depending on draws.

Players to Keep an Eye On

• Julien Laurens' picks: Jude Bellingham is expected to shine in Real Madrid’s number 10 role after a strong World Cup. Como’s Nico Paz is a rising star under Cesc Fabregas’s management. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia at PSG stands out for technical brilliance and goal-scoring ability, a potential Ballon d’Or contender. Lens’ Ismaelo Ganiou is a promising young centre-back likely to attract Premier League attention. Roma’s Donyell Malen has been prolific and looks set to perform strongly in the Champions League.
• Guillem Balague's picks: Harry Kane, aiming for the Ballon d’Or, fits Bayern’s style well. Young talent Lamine Yamal seeks to impress under Hansi Flick’s high-press system. Kvaratskhelia remains crucial for PSG’s success. Brazilian Kaua Elias from Shakhtar could become a top transfer target. Martin Odegaard looks ready to lead his confident team following a recovery from injury setbacks.

What the Statistics Reveal

Opta data ranks Arsenal as the top favorites to win the Champions League with a 20.4% chance, narrowly ahead of Bayern Munich’s 20%. PSG trails with a 7.3% chance for a third straight title. Reigning champions Manchester City hold a 12.7% probability. All five English sides sit within the top ten for overall winning odds and have over a 50% chance to progress past the group stage.

Regarding group difficulty, Liverpool reportedly have the easiest draw. Stuttgart leads for easiest overall path, and Inter Milan has the most favorable Pot 1 draw. Arsenal’s draw includes powerhouses Real Madrid and Bayern Munich but also two of the lowest-ranked teams, Sabah and Slovan Bratislava. Manchester City faces one of the toughest schedules, with Barcelona, PSG, and Napoli among their opponents.

Last season, Arsenal topped the group stage with one of the simplest fixture lists, while Bayern finished second despite facing the hardest opponents.

How Might the Newcomers Fare?

• Como: Managed by Cesc Fabregas, they defy expectations by blending modern football ideas with freedom to develop. Likely to advance to knockout rounds.
• LASK: Demonstrated competitiveness by ousting Celtic, aiming for respectable points but unlikely to qualify.
• Sabah: Known for organization, yet face a brutal schedule against Arsenal, Manchester United, Barcelona, and Borussia Dortmund. Expected to cause some upsets but fall short of progressing.
• Viking: Placed in a tough group with Bayern, Atletico, Napoli, and Aston Villa. Norwegian football’s tactical strength might help them reach knockouts.