CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv: UEFA Europa League Showdown

CSKA Sofia host Maccabi Tel Aviv at the National Stadium Vasil Levski in Sofia in the UEFA Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round second leg, carrying a commanding psychological edge after their 3–0 “away” win in Batumi a week earlier. The market, however, prices this as a very balanced clash: home odds range from 2.23 to 2.41, draw from 2.98 to 3.40, and away from 2.73 to 3.14, implying roughly 41–45% for CSKA, 29–34% for the draw, and 32–37% for Maccabi. That contrasts sharply with the model’s prediction, which gives CSKA a 45% chance of winning, the draw also at 45%, and Maccabi only 10%.

Form Deep-Dive

Using the prediction model’s league form window, CSKA Sofia arrive in outstanding shape. Their Europa League record stands at 4 wins and 1 draw from 5 fixtures (form string: WWDWW), unbeaten with 9 goals scored and only 3 conceded. That is 1.8 goals for and 0.6 against per game, backed by a strong last-five index: overall 87, attack 69, defense 77. They have kept 3 clean sheets in those 5 matches and failed to score only once.

CSKA’s goal distribution shows they are a threat throughout the first 90 minutes: they have scored in every 15‑minute band from 0–90, with the 16–30 period particularly productive (2 goals, 28.57%). Defensively, they are generally solid but can wobble late: 2 of their 3 conceded goals (50%) came between 76–90 minutes, and 1 in each of the 31–45 and 46–60 windows. This pattern suggests that if they are ahead, game management in the final quarter-hour is the main risk.

Maccabi Tel Aviv’s Europa League sample is smaller but more volatile. Their league form string is WWL from 3 games: 2 wins, 1 loss, 6 scored and 3 conceded. That yields 2.0 goals for and 1.0 against per match, with last-five indices of 67 overall, 46 attack, 77 defense. The attack rating lags CSKA’s, but the defensive index is similar, indicating a side that can be compact yet prone to the occasional collapse, as seen in the 0–3 loss to CSKA.

Their scoring is well spread: 1 goal in each of the 0–15, 16–30, 46–60, 61–75, and 76–90 intervals (20% of their goals in each band), underlining a consistent threat across the match. All 3 goals conceded so far came at home, with 1 in each of 0–15, 16–30, and 76–90, and none away, though that away sample is just one match.

H2H Analysis

The only competitive head-to-head on record in this data set is the first leg on 6 August 2026 at Batumi Arena, where Maccabi Tel Aviv were designated hosts and CSKA Sofia the away side. CSKA won 3–0, leading 2–0 at half-time and closing out a dominant performance in regular time. That result underpins the comparison block: CSKA lead the head-to-head index 100 to 0 and the goals comparison 100 to 0.

Tactically, that game confirmed several trends from the statistical profiles. CSKA’s multi-phase scoring threat translated into building an early lead and then adding a third, while Maccabi’s defensive vulnerability in the opening and closing phases reappeared. With CSKA now at home in Sofia and carrying a three-goal cushion, the onus is entirely on Maccabi to chase the game, which could open space for CSKA’s counter-attacking patterns that have already produced 9 goals in 5 Europa League fixtures.

Betting Verdict

The official prediction model clearly leans toward the hosts avoiding defeat, labelling CSKA Sofia as the “winner” with the comment “Win or draw” and advising “Double chance : CSKA Sofia or draw.” With win-or-draw flagged as true and probabilities set at 45% home, 45% draw, and just 10% away, the model sees Maccabi’s comeback chances as very slim.

The bookmakers, by contrast, rate this much closer to a coin flip, with Maccabi’s implied win probability in the low-to-mid 30s. That creates a potential value angle: if you trust the model’s 10% away figure, the away odds around 2.73–3.14 look too short and best avoided.

Given CSKA’s unbeaten Europa League run (4 wins, 1 draw), superior recent indices, and the emphatic 3–0 first-leg victory, the most data-aligned approach is to follow the model’s advice and back CSKA Sofia or draw in the double chance market. It captures both the strong likelihood that CSKA manage the tie professionally and the non-trivial 45% draw probability, while fading what the model considers an overestimated Maccabi win chance.