CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv: UEFA Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round Preview

Under the lights of the National Stadium Vasil Levski in Sofia on 13 August 2026, CSKA Sofia and Maccabi Tel Aviv step into a UEFA Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round second leg that already feels tilted by the events of the first chapter. CSKA’s stunning 3-0 “away” win in Batumi has given the Bulgarians control of the tie, but with group-stage revenue and European prestige on the line, there is no room for complacency against a Maccabi side that has already shown it can score heavily on its travels.

Season Context

With no full standings table available, the clearest picture of CSKA Sofia’s European campaign comes from their qualifying record: across 5 matches in this UEFA Europa League run, they have remained unbeaten with 4 wins and 1 draw, scoring 9 and conceding only 3. That blend of efficiency in both boxes underpins their current position of strength heading into this decisive night in Sofia.

Maccabi Tel Aviv arrive with a shorter but more volatile qualifying path: 3 matches, 2 wins and 1 defeat, with 6 goals scored and 3 conceded. A spectacular 5-goal haul away from home earlier in the campaign shows their attacking ceiling (6 goals in 3 games), but the 0-3 collapse to CSKA in Batumi has turned this tie into a rescue mission rather than a formality.

Form & Momentum

CSKA Sofia’s recent European form reads “WWDWW”, a sequence that screams consistency backed by numbers (9 goals scored and only 3 conceded across 5 matches). They have been both dangerous and balanced: averaging 1.8 goals per game while allowing just 0.6, they look like a side that can control tempo and punish mistakes rather than relying on chaos. The 3-0 victory over Maccabi in the first leg, added to a previous 3-2 home win in qualifying, underlines a team riding a confident, upward curve.

Maccabi Tel Aviv’s line of “WWL” tells a different story: two strong opening wins followed by a jarring defeat. Their 6 goals in 3 matches (2.0 per game) show they can explode in attack, particularly away from home where they have already produced a 0-5 victory. Yet the fact they have conceded all 3 of their goals at “home” in this campaign (3 allowed in 2 home games, 0 away) suggests a side that can look very different depending on venue and game state. Coming off a 0-3 loss, momentum is firmly against them, even if their attacking threat keeps the tie alive.

Head-to-Head Patterns

The recent history between these sides is short but strikingly one-sided in CSKA Sofia’s favour. The most recent meeting came on 6 August 2026, when CSKA dismantled Maccabi Tel Aviv 3-0 in Batumi Arena in the UEFA Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round (0-3, UEFA Europa League, season 2026, August 2026). That night, Maccabi were the designated home team and still failed to find a way through a disciplined CSKA defence.

Beyond this qualifying tie, there are no additional competitive meetings in the provided data, so the head-to-head narrative is dominated entirely by that emphatic first leg. The model’s own historical comparison reflects this, heavily favouring CSKA in direct encounters. For Maccabi, the task is therefore not just to overturn a scoreline, but to rewrite a matchup that has so far exposed their defensive frailties and inability to control CSKA’s varied attacking threats.

Tactical Preview

CSKA Sofia’s European run has been built on tactical flexibility and a solid defensive base. They have already used a range of systems — from 4-3-1-2 and 4-3-3 to 3-5-2 and 4-1-4-1 — each deployed at least once in their 5 matches. That variety, combined with 4 wins and 1 draw plus only 3 goals conceded, suggests a coach willing to adapt shapes without sacrificing structure. The ability to win both a high-scoring contest (their biggest home win is 3-2) and a controlled away performance (0-3) shows a side comfortable both pressing higher and sitting in a compact block before springing forward.

Personnel-wise, CSKA have depth across the pitch. Goalkeepers like D. Evtimov lead a defensive unit that includes Adrián Lapeña, Á. Martino, Pastor and Facundo Santiago Rodríguez, giving options for both back three and back four setups. In midfield, players such as S. Sensi, Bruno Jordão, M. Ebong and I. Solet Bomawoko can form a technically strong and hard-working core, while wide and attacking threats like M. Brahimi, Léo Pereira, S. Godoy and I. Pittas provide the variety to stretch Maccabi’s back line. With 9 goals from 5 games and just 1 match without scoring, CSKA have shown they can consistently create chances.

Maccabi Tel Aviv, by contrast, have leaned on a more defined attacking identity, often using 3-5-2, 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1. Their numbers underline a team built to hurt opponents in transition: 6 goals from 3 games, with a standout 0-5 away win, speak to pace and verticality. The defensive line featuring M. Camara, R. Revivo and S. Yehezkel is supported by a midfield that mixes steel and creativity — D. Glazer and Dor Peretz provide stability, while K. Belić, O. Davida and I. Shahar can carry the ball and link with forwards like E. Sokler, Y. Malede and Hélio Varela.

However, the 3 goals conceded have all come when Maccabi were the designated home side, hinting at vulnerability when they are forced to chase the game or push their wing-backs high. In Sofia, needing to overturn a 3-goal deficit, they may be compelled to take similar risks again. That plays directly into CSKA’s strengths: an unbeaten side with 3 clean sheets in 5 matches, capable of absorbing pressure and striking through runners like S. Godoy or Pittas on the break.

Statistical Snapshot

• Competition: UEFA Europa League, season 2026 — 13 August 2026.
• Venue: National Stadium Vasil Levski, Sofia.
• Prediction: Win or draw — Double chance : CSKA Sofia or draw.
• Win Probabilities: Home 45% / Draw 45% / Away 10%.
• Model: CSKA Sofia 59.3 — Maccabi Tel Aviv 40.7.

Betting Verdict

The prediction model leans clearly towards CSKA Sofia avoiding defeat, and the numbers support that stance: they are unbeaten in 5 European matches (4 wins, 1 draw), have conceded only 3 goals, and just dismantled Maccabi Tel Aviv 3-0 in the first leg. Bookmaker odds for a CSKA home win generally range from around 1.98 to 2.14, implying an approximate probability band of roughly 47% to 51%, while the draw sits near 3.10–3.25 and the away win closer to 3.40–4.05. Given CSKA’s defensive solidity and the psychological edge of a three-goal cushion, “Double chance: CSKA Sofia or draw” aligns neatly with both the model’s 45% home and 45% draw probabilities and the head-to-head evidence. For those seeking value, a cautious angle backing CSKA not to lose looks more justified than chasing a high-variance Maccabi comeback, especially against an opponent that has yet to be beaten in this qualifying campaign.