CSKA Sofia vs OFI Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

CSKA Sofia host OFI at National Stadium Vasil Levski in Sofia on 27 August 2026 in the second leg of their UEFA Europa League play-off tie. After a bruising 3-0 defeat in Heraklion a week earlier, the Bulgarian side must produce a huge response in front of their home crowd to keep their group-stage hopes alive.

OFI arrive in the Bulgarian capital with a commanding 3-0 aggregate lead from the first leg at Pagritio on 20 August 2026. That result has turned the pressure firmly onto CSKA Sofia, who now need at least three goals without reply just to force extra time. For OFI, the task is clearer: manage the game, stay compact, and look to exploit the spaces that will inevitably appear as CSKA chase the tie.

With Europa League qualification and the associated financial and sporting rewards at stake, this second leg shapes as a fascinating clash of approaches: CSKA Sofia’s need for attacking risk against an OFI side that has so far combined efficiency in front of goal with defensive solidity in this campaign.

CSKA Sofia vs OFI Key Stats

• Across 7 Europa League matches this season, CSKA Sofia have scored 10 goals and conceded 9, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game in tournament statistics.
• The only previous meeting between these sides came on 20 August 2026, when OFI beat CSKA Sofia 3-0 at Pagritio in the UEFA Europa League play-offs.
• CSKA Sofia have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 Europa League fixtures, while OFI have 1 clean sheet from their single match so far in this campaign.

CSKA Sofia vs OFI — Tale of the Tape

• Position: Not available vs Not available
• Points: Not available vs Not available
• Goals For: 10 (CSKA Sofia tournament total) vs 3 (OFI tournament total)
• Goals Against: 9 (CSKA Sofia tournament total) vs 0 (OFI tournament total)
• Clean Sheets: CSKA Sofia 3 vs OFI 1 (tournament statistics)

Standings data for the play-off round are not listed, but broader Europa League statistics sketch a clear picture of both sides’ profiles. CSKA Sofia have been involved in relatively tight games across 7 matches, with a +1 goal difference (10 scored, 9 conceded) and a mixed record of 4 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats. Their numbers point to a team that generally finds the net but is also vulnerable at the back.

OFI’s Europa League sample is far smaller but highly impressive: 1 match, a 3-0 win, and a clean sheet. They average 3.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded per game so far in this campaign. While that’s only one fixture, it was precisely against this CSKA Sofia side, underlining how sharply OFI executed their game plan in the first leg.

CSKA Sofia vs OFI Key Matchups

Bruno Jordão vs OFI’s central midfield unit

For CSKA Sofia, Bruno Jordão has been a key attacking influence from midfield in the Europa League. In 2 appearances he has scored 1 goal and also features among the top assist contributors for the club in this competition. His ability to arrive late in the box and contribute both goals and creativity makes him central to any comeback hopes.

OFI’s midfield does not have individual statistical standouts listed in the top scorers or assists charts yet, but collectively they have controlled the central areas well enough to keep a clean sheet and allow just 0.0 goals against in their lone Europa League outing. Stopping Jordão’s forward runs and limiting his time on the ball between the lines will be a priority for the Greek side as they look to protect their aggregate advantage.

Pastor vs OFI’s wide attackers

Defender Pastor has emerged as one of CSKA Sofia’s more productive players in build-up, with 1 assist from 2 Europa League appearances and a place in both the top scorers (via contributions) and top assists lists. His forward forays and delivery from deep or wide areas will be crucial as CSKA seek multiple goals.

However, those attacking instincts come with risk. With OFI having already shown they can score three times in 90 minutes against CSKA, transitions into the spaces behind overlapping full-backs like Pastor could be a key route to goal again. If Pastor can balance his offensive contribution with defensive discipline, he could tilt the tie back towards CSKA; if not, OFI’s wide forwards may again find joy on the counter.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

These sides have only just begun their European rivalry, but the first chapter was emphatic. OFI struck early and managed the game superbly in front of their home fans to put themselves in a dominant position ahead of the second leg in Sofia.

• 20 August 2026: OFI 3-0 CSKA Sofia (UEFA Europa League)

CSKA Sofia vs OFI Prediction

Stats suggest a complex dynamic for this second leg. CSKA Sofia’s broader Europa League form shows 4 wins in 7 matches and an attacking output of 1.4 goals per game, but they have also conceded in the majority of those fixtures and suffered a heavy 3-0 loss in Heraklion. Their last-five indicator shows 47 in overall form with 28 in attack and 67 in defence, numbers that hint at inconsistency but also some defensive resilience across a larger sample than the first leg alone.

OFI, by contrast, come in with a perfect if limited record: 1 win from 1, 3 goals scored and none conceded, and a last-five snapshot of 100 in form, 17 in attack and 100 in defence. The predictions model leans towards a very balanced outcome on the night, giving CSKA Sofia just 10% chance of a win, with both the draw and an OFI victory rated at 45 out of 100. That suggests the market and underlying numbers expect a tight, low-margin contest rather than a repeat of the first-leg scoreline.

Given OFI’s three-goal cushion, they are unlikely to overcommit. CSKA Sofia must chase the game but will be wary of conceding an away goal that would effectively kill the tie. A scenario where CSKA have more of the ball, create chances, but struggle to break down a compact OFI block — while also being vulnerable to counters — feels the most plausible.

Predicted Score: CSKA Sofia 1-1 OFI

CSKA Sofia Recent Form

In Europa League tournament play, CSKA Sofia have a record of 4 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from 7 matches. They have scored 10 goals and conceded 9, with an average of 1.4 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game. Their clean-sheet count of 3 suggests they can defend solidly on their day, but the recent 3-0 loss to OFI underlines how quickly things can unravel when they are forced to chase.

OFI Recent Form

OFI’s Europa League form line is short but flawless: 1 match, 1 win, 3 goals scored and none conceded. Their average of 3.0 goals per game and 0.0 against reflects a dominant performance in that first leg. While the sample size is too small for deep trends, they have shown they can combine clinical finishing with defensive organisation at this level.

CSKA Sofia Possible Starting Lineup

GK: D. Evtimov; Defenders: Pastor, Adrián Lapeña, Á. Martino, Facundo Santiago Rodríguez; Midfielders: Bruno Jordão, M. Ebong, S. Sensi, M. Brahimi; Forwards: S. Godoy, I. Pittas.

CSKA Sofia have a deep squad with several defensive options (including Pastor, Adrián Lapeña and Facundo Santiago Rodríguez) and a midfield that can be built around Bruno Jordão’s forward thrusts and S. Sensi’s control. In attack, players such as S. Godoy and I. Pittas offer goal threat. With multiple formations used in Europa League play — from 4-3-3 to 3-5-2 and 4-1-4-1 — CSKA are tactically flexible, but here they are likely to choose an aggressive setup to chase the deficit.

OFI Possible Starting Lineup

GK: N. Christogeorgos; Defenders: L. Dickmann, Borja González, D. Nikolaou, N. Marinakis; Midfielders: A. Bouchalakis, T. Androutsos, G. Kanellópoulos, Aitor Cantalapiedra; Forwards: T. Fountas, A. Leya.

OFI’s squad list suggests a solid defensive core with experienced defenders like L. Dickmann, Borja González and D. Nikolaou, backed by a midfield featuring A. Bouchalakis and T. Androutsos. In the first leg they lined up in a 3-4-3, and a similar shape is plausible again, with wing-backs dropping deep when out of possession. With a three-goal cushion, they can afford to sit in a compact block and spring forward through players like T. Fountas and A. Leya when opportunities arise.

CSKA Sofia Team News

No significant absences reported.

OFI Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

CSKA Sofia:

• None reported.

OFI:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: CSKA Sofia vs OFI

Below are three data-backed betting angles for this Europa League play-off second leg.

• Result Tip: Back CSKA Sofia to win the match. Bookmakers make CSKA Sofia clear favourites on the night, with home odds ranging from 1.58 to 1.65, implying an approximate probability between 60.6% (1 ÷ 1.65 × 100) and 63.3% (1 ÷ 1.58 × 100). Despite the predictions model rating the draw and OFI win each at 45 out of 100 versus just 10 out of 100 for a CSKA victory, market pricing reflects home advantage and CSKA’s broader Europa League record of 4 wins in 7. With OFI able to afford a narrow defeat and still progress, a home win in the single-leg market has a reasonable statistical basis.
• Goals Tip: Under 3.5 total goals. CSKA Sofia’s Europa League matches average 2.7 total goals (10 for, 9 against across 7 games), while OFI’s only fixture finished 3-0. The first leg scoreline might tempt an overs bet, but the context is different here: OFI will likely prioritise control and game management. With CSKA averaging 1.4 scored and 1.3 conceded per game, a match landing on 2 or 3 goals is more in line with their usual profile. Look for under-goals prices in the main totals market; even if odds are shorter than for overs, they align better with the statistical baseline.
• Value Tip: Draw in the match result market. The draw is priced between 3.82 and 4.00, implying an approximate probability range of 26.3% (1 ÷ 3.80 × 100 as a reference) to 26.3–26.2% for similar odds, and 25.0% at 4.00. The predictions model, however, assigns the draw 45 out of 100, matching OFI’s win probability and far above CSKA’s 10 out of 100. Given OFI’s strong defensive numbers (0.0 goals conceded so far) and the likelihood that they will accept a stalemate if they can’t win on the night, the draw appears to offer the most attractive risk-reward profile compared with the raw odds.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.