CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag: UEFA Europa League 2nd Qualifying Round Preview

CSKA Sofia host Qarabag at the National Stadium Vasil Levski in Sofia in the UEFA Europa League 2nd Qualifying Round, with the tie finely poised after a 0-0 draw in Baku on 23 July 2026. With no away goals rule and everything to play for, this second leg effectively becomes a one-off knockout match, albeit with CSKA backed by home support and Qarabag carrying the stronger statistical profile.

Form-wise in this Europa League campaign, both sides are officially listed with the same sequence: “WWD” in the predictions league block. That means two wins and one draw each across three fixtures, so neither has tasted defeat yet. However, the underlying numbers separate them clearly. CSKA have scored 5 goals and conceded 3 in their three matches, averaging 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded. Qarabag have been far more dominant defensively, with 6 goals scored and none conceded, averaging 2.0 scored and 0.0 against.

Looking deeper into recent performance from the predictions data, CSKA’s last five metrics show strong overall form (index 78) and a solid defensive rating (79), but a more modest attacking index of 36. They can score in multiple phases of the game – goals are spread fairly evenly across the 16–75 minute ranges – yet they have also allowed goals late, with 50% of their conceded goals coming between minutes 76–90. That late vulnerability is a concern in a high-pressure second leg.

Qarabag’s last five numbers are even more impressive: form index 78, attack 43, and a perfect defense index of 100, underlining that they have not conceded in this Europa League run. Their goals are well distributed from 0–90 minutes, indicating they pose a threat throughout the match. Three clean sheets from three fixtures and 6 goals scored (3 at home, 3 away) show a side that travels well and manages games efficiently.

Head-to-Head Data

Head-to-head data from the predictions block reinforces Qarabag’s edge. In the first leg on 23 July 2026 at Azərsun Arena in the Europa League, Qarabag and CSKA played out a 0-0 draw, with the Azerbaijani side the home team. Before that, in competitive friendlies, CSKA lost 0-1 at home to Qarabag on 4 July 2023 and 0-1 again at Kunstrasenplatz TSV Fulpmes on 7 July 2021, both times with CSKA as the home side and Qarabag as the away team. While friendlies are less predictive than competitive fixtures, they still show Qarabag have repeatedly managed to shut CSKA out. The h2h comparison index in the predictions data leans strongly towards Qarabag (20 vs 80), and the goals index is also fully in Qarabag’s favour.

The model’s comparison block is clear: attack index 45 vs 55 in favour of Qarabag, and a decisive 0 vs 100 on defense. The total comparison index stands at 38.3 for CSKA and 61.7 for Qarabag, again highlighting the visitors as the more complete side.

Bookmakers’ Odds

Yet the bookmakers’ odds paint a more balanced picture. Across major firms, CSKA are narrowly priced as home favourites: home odds range from 2.30 to 2.65, draw from 2.86 to 3.25, and away from 2.55 to 2.90. That implies an approximate probability range of around 38–43% for a CSKA win, 31–35% for the draw, and roughly 34–39% for a Qarabag win once overround is accounted for. The market is essentially calling this a near coin-flip between CSKA and Qarabag, with a slightly higher premium on the home advantage.

The prediction engine, however, assigns only a 10% chance to a CSKA win, with 45% for the draw and 45% for a Qarabag victory, and the official advice is “Winner : Qarabag”. That means the model sees Qarabag as significantly undervalued by the market relative to their defensive solidity and head-to-head edge.

Betting Insights

Betting-wise, the clearest angle is to side with Qarabag on the result market, but in a way that respects the high draw probability. With 45% model probability on both draw and away win, options like Qarabag draw no bet or Qarabag double chance (away or draw) look safer than a straight away win. For those seeking more value and willing to accept higher risk, backing Qarabag to qualify or Qarabag to win in regular time aligns tightly with the prediction data, which strongly favours the visitors despite the bookmakers’ more conservative stance.