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CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

CSKA Sofia and Qarabag meet at National Stadium Vasil Levski in Sofia on 30 July 2026 for the second leg of their UEFA Europa League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. After a cagey 0-0 draw in Baku a week earlier, this decisive clash will determine who progresses to the next phase of qualifying.

The goalless first leg leaves the tie finely balanced, but Qarabag arrive in Bulgaria with the stronger recent defensive record in Europa League action, while CSKA Sofia will look to make home advantage count in front of their own fans. With progression and valuable UEFA coefficient points at stake, this has all the ingredients of a tense knockout-style encounter.

Both sides are unbeaten so far in their 2026 Europa League campaigns, and the numbers suggest a tight, low-scoring contest where a single moment of quality could swing the tie. Bettors searching for CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag prediction angles, Europa League betting tips, and insight into likely lineups will find this second leg a fascinating puzzle.

CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag Key Stats

  • In 2026 Europa League play, CSKA Sofia are unbeaten across 3 matches with 2 wins and 1 draw, scoring 5 and conceding 3.
  • The most recent meeting on 23 July 2026 in Baku finished Qarabag 0-0 CSKA Sofia in the Europa League 2nd Qualifying Round.
  • Qarabag have yet to concede a goal in their 3 Europa League matches in 2026, scoring 6 and keeping 3 clean sheets.

CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag — Tale of the Tape

  • Position: Not available vs Not available
  • Points: Not available vs Not available
  • Goals For: Not available vs Not available
  • Goals Against: Not available vs Not available
  • Clean Sheets: CSKA Sofia 1 (tournament statistics), Qarabag 3 (tournament statistics)

Group-stage style standings are not yet in play at this qualifying phase, but tournament statistics still offer a clear picture of how these sides have started their Europa League journeys. CSKA Sofia have taken 2 wins and a draw from 3 fixtures, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. They have shown attacking variety, scoring in multiple time windows, but have also been a little vulnerable at the back.

Qarabag’s profile is more controlled and defensive. Across 3 Europa League matches in 2026, they have scored 6 goals at an average of 2.0 per game and, crucially, have not conceded once. Two home clean sheets and one away shutout underline a compact structure, built around a consistent 4-2-3-1 formation used in all three matches. In terms of tournament clean sheets, Qarabag clearly hold the edge.

CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag Key Matchups

CSKA Sofia attack vs Qarabag defensive unit

CSKA Sofia’s Europa League campaign has been defined by a relatively productive attack: 5 goals in 3 matches, with an average of 3.0 goals scored at home and 1.0 away. They have managed to find the net in most phases of the game, with goals spread across the 16–75 minute window. Their biggest wins include a 3-2 home result and a 1-2 away victory, highlighting an ability to create chances both in Sofia and on the road.

That forward momentum runs into Qarabag’s standout strength: a defence that has yet to be breached in this Europa League season. With 3 clean sheets from 3 matches and an average of 0.0 goals conceded, Qarabag’s back line and double pivot in the 4-2-3-1 have been exceptionally disciplined. The comparison indices back this up, with Qarabag’s defensive index far superior. The key tactical battle will be whether CSKA’s varied attacking patterns can finally force Qarabag into mistakes that no other opponent has managed so far.

Qarabag transition play vs CSKA Sofia defensive resilience

Qarabag’s offensive numbers are quietly impressive: 6 goals in 3 Europa League games, averaging 2.0 per match, with a strong away output of 3.0 goals per game. Their biggest wins — 3-0 at home and 0-3 away — show they can be ruthless when they gain control. They tend to strike early and in waves, with goals distributed from the opening 15 minutes through to the late stages, including the 76–90 minute window.

CSKA Sofia’s defence has been solid but not watertight, conceding 3 goals in 3 matches (1.0 per game). At home they have allowed 2 goals in a single fixture, while away they have been tighter with just 1 conceded across 2 games. The pattern suggests CSKA can be opened up, especially in the later stages, where a significant share of their goals conceded has come between 76–90 minutes. If Qarabag can draw CSKA out in Sofia, their transition and late-game threat could be decisive.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

These sides are becoming familiar opponents, with recent meetings in both competitive and friendly settings. The historical edge lies with Qarabag, though the first leg of this tie ended level.

  • 23 July 2026: Qarabag 0-0 CSKA Sofia (UEFA Europa League)
  • 27 June 2026: CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag (Friendlies Clubs) – Match Cancelled
  • 4 July 2023: CSKA Sofia 0-1 Qarabag (Friendlies Clubs)
  • 7 July 2021: CSKA Sofia 0-1 Qarabag (Friendlies Clubs)

CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag Prediction

Stats suggest a finely poised second leg. CSKA Sofia’s Europa League form line of WWD shows consistency and an ability to win both home and away, but they have yet to face a defence as watertight as Qarabag’s in this campaign. Qarabag also come in with a WWD record, combining a perfect defensive slate with a more efficient attack.

The prediction model gives Qarabag a 45% chance of victory, with CSKA Sofia at 10% and the draw also at 45%. That split underlines how likely extra-time or penalties could become if neither side can break the deadlock in regulation time. With the first leg already finishing 0-0 and Qarabag’s defence unbreached in three Europa League outings, another low-scoring contest feels probable. However, Qarabag’s superior attacking efficiency and clean-sheet record tilt the balance slightly in their favour, even away from home.

Predicted Score: CSKA Sofia 0-1 Qarabag

CSKA Sofia Recent Form

In Europa League 2026 action, CSKA Sofia are on a strong run with a sequence of two wins followed by a draw. Across 3 matches they have scored 5 goals and conceded 3, showing a positive goal difference and resilience in tight games. Their biggest win, a 3-2 home result, underlines both attacking potential and some defensive fragility, while a 1-2 away victory demonstrates they can manage difficult away legs. The 0-0 in Baku extended their unbeaten run but also highlighted the challenge of breaking down top-level defensive structures.

Qarabag Recent Form

Qarabag mirror CSKA Sofia’s Europa League form line with two wins and a draw in 3 matches. Their performances, though, have been more controlled: 6 goals scored and none conceded. A 3-0 home win and a 0-3 away success show they are comfortable dictating games in different environments. The 0-0 first leg against CSKA Sofia was their first Europa League match this season without scoring, but they again demonstrated defensive authority, restricting CSKA’s chances and preserving their perfect clean-sheet record.

CSKA Sofia Possible Starting Lineup

GK: D. Evtimov or F. Lapoukhov
Defenders: J. Gbamin, Adrián Lapeña, Á. Martino, Pastor, Facundo Santiago Rodríguez, A. Yordanov, Tamimou Ouorou, T. Ivanov
Midfielders: M. Ebong, Bruno Jordão, M. Brahimi, S. Sensi, I. Solet Bomawoko, J. Iliev, J. Eto'o, V. Kaymakanov, A. Nikolov, P. Panayotov, Léo Pereira, A. Piedrahita, G. Chorbadzhiyski
Forwards: S. Godoy, M. Phaëton, I. Pittas, R. Zhivkov, J. Zwarts, K. Dodaj

CSKA Sofia have a deep squad with multiple options in every line. At the back, experienced figures like Adrián Lapeña and Á. Martino can provide stability, while versatile players such as J. Gbamin and Tamimou Ouorou offer flexibility in both central and wide defensive roles. The midfield mix of ball-players like Bruno Jordão and S. Sensi, alongside more dynamic options such as M. Ebong and M. Brahimi, should allow CSKA to vary between possession play and transitions. Up front, the presence of several attackers — including S. Godoy, M. Phaëton and I. Pittas — gives the coach different profiles to target Qarabag’s compact defence, whether via aerial presence, movement in behind, or combination play.

Qarabag Possible Starting Lineup

GK: M. Kochalski or Ş. Məhəmmədəliyev
Defenders: Dani Bolt, J. Gnali, A. Hüseynov, B. Hüseynov, Bruno Langa, Matheus Silva, K. Medina, B. Mustafazadə, S. Niftiyev, B. Varkonyi
Midfielders: E. Cəfərquliyev, Č. Makreckis, Kady, M. Janković, Joni Montiel, Samuel Lobato, Pedro Bicalho, O. Kashchuk, J. Mouaddib, H. Jabrayilzade, H. Ibrahim, M. Imamaliyev, Nicat Khasiyev, Mehdi Mutallimli, A. Bashirov
Forwards: R. Cephas, M. Qurbanlı, Z. Sawo, R. Almeyda, Behruz Qurbanli

Qarabag have consistently lined up in a 4-2-3-1 across their 3 Europa League matches, and their squad is well-suited to that shape. The defensive core of A. Hüseynov, B. Hüseynov and Bruno Langa underpins their flawless clean-sheet record, supported by full-backs like Dani Bolt and Matheus Silva who can contribute both defensively and in wide build-up. In midfield, creative and technical players such as Kady, M. Janković and Joni Montiel give Qarabag control in central areas and provide the link to a varied forward line. Attackers like R. Cephas, M. Qurbanlı and R. Almeyda offer different threats — pace, movement, and penalty-box presence — allowing Qarabag to adapt to the game state in Sofia.

CSKA Sofia Team News

No significant absences reported.

Qarabag Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

CSKA Sofia:

  • None reported.

Qarabag:

  • None reported.

Betting Tips: CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag

Below are three data-driven betting angles for this Europa League qualifier second leg.

  • Result Tip: Back Qarabag Draw No Bet. Qarabag are slight favourites in the outright market, with away odds ranging from 2.25 to 2.40 (implied probability roughly 41.7% to 44.4%), compared to CSKA Sofia’s home odds of around 2.90 to 3.15 (31.7% to 34.5%). With the prediction model giving Qarabag a 45% win chance and the draw also at 45%, protecting against another stalemate via Draw No Bet on Qarabag looks a pragmatic approach.
  • Goals Tip: Under 2.5 goals. CSKA Sofia’s Europa League matches average 2.7 total goals, but Qarabag’s games average just 2.0 and they have not conceded in 3 outings. The first leg finished 0-0, and Qarabag’s defensive strength combined with the high stakes of a qualifying decider points towards another tight, low-scoring match. Look for Under 2.5 goals in the main goals market, using the available match-winner odds range as a guide that bookmakers also expect a close contest.
  • Value Tip: Qarabag to qualify. With Qarabag’s clean-sheet record (3 from 3) and superior defensive and overall comparison indices, backing them to progress over the tie rather than just to win on the night offers an interesting angle. Market odds for Qarabag as away winners sit between 2.25 and 2.40, suggesting qualification prices should also be competitive; their combination of solid defence and efficient attack gives them marginal value to edge the tie over 90 minutes or beyond.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.

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