Under the lights at Estadio Departamental Libertad, Deportivo Pasto W face a Millonarios W side that have been ruthless in transition all season. The tactical contrast is stark: Pasto’s low-scoring, reactive approach against a Millonarios team averaging 2.7 goals per game in the league phase, with the visitors’ aggressive second-half surges likely to stretch a Pasto defence conceding 2.0 goals per match. With Pasto still hunting their first win of the 2026 Liga Femenina season, the stakes are survival in the race for the top positions versus Millonarios’ push to consolidate themselves as title contenders.
Key players to watch include creative midfielder Karol Contreras for Deportivo Pasto W, who must help them escape pressure and relieve their overworked back line, while veteran playmaker Tatiana Ariza is central to Millonarios W’s attacking fluidity between the lines. In goal, Veronica Idarraga for Pasto is likely to be busy again given her team’s average of 2.0 goals conceded, whereas for Millonarios the competition between Daniela Gamboa and Luna Reyes underlines a strong goalkeeping department that has already delivered three clean sheets at home this season.
The hot stat: Millonarios W have scored 16 goals in just 6 league games this campaign, more than triple Deportivo Pasto W’s total of 5.
Match Information
- 🏆 Tournament: Liga Femenina (Colombia) 2026, Regular Season - 7
- 🏟 Venue: Estadio Departamental Libertad, Pasto
- 🗓️ Date: April 11, 2026
- ⏰ Time: 20:00 UTC
Deportivo Pasto W vs Millonarios W Prediction
The data-driven angle strongly favours Millonarios W. The head-to-head comparison gives them 71.7% overall versus Pasto’s 28.3%, with attacking index 74% vs 26% and form 83% vs 17%. In the league phase, Millonarios average 2.7 goals for and 0.8 against, while Pasto sit at 0.8 scored and 2.0 conceded. Millonarios have also taken 4 wins from 6, compared to Pasto’s 0 wins and 4 defeats. Even away, Millonarios score 1.7 per game, which should be enough against a Pasto side that have failed to score in 2 of 6. The model advice is “Double chance: draw or Millonarios W” with 50% draw and 50% away probability, and 0% home. From a value perspective, the best betting option is Millonarios W Draw No Bet (or Asian Handicap 0), aligning with the prediction that the visitors avoid defeat and are more likely to edge it.
In terms of style of play, Pasto’s defensive numbers suggest long spells without the ball and a deep block, especially given their high goals-against average and only one clean sheet. That usually correlates with more clearances and reactive fouls, particularly in the 31–60 minute window where they concede heavily (7 of 12 goals conceded between minutes 31–60). Millonarios, by contrast, do their most dangerous work after the break, with 6 of their 16 goals between minutes 46–60 and a further 3 between 61–75, implying sustained pressure and territorial dominance. While card data is not provided, such a pattern often leads to Pasto committing tactical fouls around their box to slow transitions, which can generate set-piece chances for Millonarios. Possession is likely to skew towards the visitors, who have not failed to score in any game this season, while Pasto’s limited attacking output means they will rely on counters and direct balls into their attackers.
Betting Markets Snapshot
- 🔥 Hot Tip: Millonarios W 0 Asian Handicap (Draw No Bet)
- ⚽ Total Goals: Over 2.5 goals
- 💥 Both Teams To Score: Yes
- 🎯 Total Corners: Lean over, driven by Millonarios pressure (no precise line available)
Deportivo Pasto W vs Millonarios W Key Stats
- Form Streak: Pasto come in on a six-game winless run (LLDLDL) with just 2 draws; Millonarios arrive in strong form (WWLWDW), with 4 wins from 6 and only 1 defeat.
- H2H Record: In the last three Liga Femenina meetings, Millonarios lead with 1 win and 2 draws. They won 2-0 at home in 2024, while the other two fixtures (2023 and 2025) both finished 1-1.
- Defensive Metrics: Pasto concede 2.0 goals per game (12 in 6) and have just 1 clean sheet; Millonarios concede 0.8 per game (5 in 6) with 3 clean sheets, all at home, and no game without scoring.
Team Analysis
Deportivo Pasto W Focus
Pasto’s recent league phase has been defined by defensive fragility and low attacking volume. Their last six games show only 5 goals scored, with the bulk of their attacking threat concentrated in the 16–45 minute window (3 of their 5 goals). However, they concede heavily around half-time, with 4 goals allowed between 31–45 and 3 more between 46–60, suggesting lapses in concentration and difficulty managing transitions just before and after the break. Their under/over profile is telling: under 2.5 has landed in all 6 matches, but that is more a function of their limited scoring than defensive solidity. With no recorded wins and their biggest defeats at 2-3 (home) and 3-1 (away), Pasto often stay in games but lack the quality to close them out. Tactical efficiency will hinge on whether their midfield, led by the likes of Karol Contreras and Juliany Moreno, can slow Millonarios’ tempo and protect a back line that has struggled when stretched.
Millonarios W Focus
Millonarios W arrive as one of the league’s most dynamic attacking units. They have scored in every match, with a strong second-half profile: 6 goals between 46–60 and 3 more between 61–75, indicating excellent fitness and in-game adjustments. Their home dominance (11 scored, 0 conceded) contrasts with a more open away profile (5 scored, 5 conceded), but even on the road they average 1.7 goals and remain difficult to contain. The last five individual form and defensive rating show an attacking index of 100% and defensive index of 64%, underlining how consistently they create chances. Their only defeat, a 2-1 away loss, came in a relatively high-event game, which supports an expectation of chances at both ends here. With experienced midfielders such as Tatiana Ariza and the depth of options like Laura Bolano and Nancy Madrid, Millonarios can control rhythm and exploit Pasto’s weak zones around half-time.
Possible Starting Lineups
Deportivo Pasto W Predicted XI
- GK: Veronica Idarraga
- DF: Karen Balcazar, Anyi Olarte, Elizabeth Angulo, Marisol Urango
- MF: Karol Contreras, Juliany Moreno, Jhannaceth Ruiz, Angely Valencia
- FW: Leysy Pulgarin, Mayerli Preciado
Pasto are likely to line up in a compact 4-4-2 or 4-2-3-1, with Balcazar and Olarte tasked with marshalling the central areas and full-backs Angulo and Urango staying relatively conservative. Contreras’ creativity and Ruiz’s energy in midfield are crucial for linking to forwards Pulgarin and Preciado on the break. Expect them to sit deep, concede territory, and look for quick vertical passes into the channels to exploit any advanced Millonarios full-backs.
Millonarios W Predicted XI
- GK: Daniela Gamboa
- DF: Fernanda Viafara, Angeles Benavides Arguedas Mariana de los, Maria Gutierrez
- MF: Tatiana Ariza, Nancy Madrid, Laura Bolano, Alejandra Leal Aroca Maria, Lesly Olivares
- FW: Julieth Castaneda Vanegas Angie, Lina Gomez
Millonarios should set up in an attack-minded 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1, with Viafara providing width from the back and Benavides plus Gutierrez anchoring the defence. In midfield, Ariza is the technical hub, supported by Madrid and Bolano to sustain pressure and recycle possession high up the pitch. In attack, Castaneda Vanegas Angie and Lina Gomez offer movement across the front line, looking to exploit Pasto’s vulnerabilities just before and after half-time with diagonal runs and combinations around the box.
Head-to-Head Comparison
- Goals: Deportivo Pasto W 3 vs Millonarios W 5 (last three league meetings: 1-1, 0-2, 1-1)
- Total Shots: No detailed shot data available; Millonarios’ superior attacking indices suggest higher volume.
- Corner Kicks: No corner data provided; expected edge to Millonarios due to sustained attacking pressure.
- Pass Accuracy: No exact percentages available; Millonarios’ stronger form and attacking control imply better ball retention.
- Total Fouls: No foul counts provided; Pasto likely to commit more tactical fouls under pressure.
Deportivo Pasto W vs Millonarios W Score Prediction: 1-3
Millonarios’ superior form, attacking metrics (2.7 goals per game), and positive head-to-head trend point towards an away win, even allowing for Pasto’s home draw last season. Pasto’s defence concedes 2.0 per game and struggles around half-time, exactly where Millonarios are strongest. However, Millonarios’ away concession rate of 1.7 suggests Pasto can nick a goal, making 1-3 a logical projection.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability
- Moneyline: Deportivo Pasto W {odds} | Millonarios W {odds}
- Draw: {odds}
- Over/Under 2.5: Over {odds} | Under {odds}
- BTTS: Yes {odds} | No {odds}
Expert's Final Take
The head-to-head comparison, individual form/defensive rating, and league-phase numbers all converge on one conclusion: Millonarios W are significantly stronger and highly unlikely to lose. With Pasto still winless and conceding heavily, the safest and most valuable angle is Millonarios W Draw No Bet (Asian Handicap 0), backed by an expectation of a relatively open game leaning over 2.5 goals and a good chance of both teams scoring. For bettors, aligning with the model’s “win or draw” call on Millonarios while protecting against an unlikely stalemate offers the best blend of upside and risk management.