Humans vs Machines: Premier League Predictions Showdown
The machines lead the humans 1-0. On paper, at least.
Last season, Microsoft’s CoPilot barged into the BBC predictions league and walked off with the title at the first attempt. Now the rematch is here, and Chris Sutton, his guests and the BBC audience are lining up for revenge.
“It was a final-day defeat for me, that is how close I came to the title,” Sutton said. Then came the sting. “But I keep reading how AI models are going rogue and attacking each other. So, was I hacked too? It sounds like cheating to me – if so, then last season should really go down as a victory for me.”
The battle lines are drawn: Sutton, musician and Manchester United fan Liam Fray, and BBC readers on one side; CoPilot on the other. The chatbot’s forecasts were again generated the simple way – BBC Sport asked it to “predict this weekend’s Premier League results” and let it run.
Liam, for his part, is heading into the new campaign with a quiet belief about United – and a very loud faith in Michael Carrick.
“I am pretty excited,” he told BBC Sport. “Listen, we are not going to be challenging for the title because we are not at Arsenal or Manchester City’s level, but I think we will be up there – and I love Carrick. I was like ‘give him the job straight away’ when Ruben Amorim was sacked in January.
“I am biased because we play a bit of golf and we have had a few beers, but it means a lot when you see someone stood on the touchline who seems to care.”
For Fray, it is about connection as much as tactics. “We have had plenty of managers recently who I am sure are passionate in their own way but, for me, it is a bit like being on stage – it is not that difficult to let people watching see that you are fully into what you are doing.
“I think that, when you do that, you get a lot back. Ralf Rangnick, Erik ten Hag and Amorim were all good coaches I am sure, but it is good to see someone who cares and seems to want to do it for us as well as himself and the team... so, yeah, with him in charge I am really up for it.”
Sutton and Fray were speaking to BBC Sport’s Chris Bevan. For everyone else, there is another way to test their football instincts this season: BBC Sport’s new Match of the Day predictor game, with six fixtures each week from domestic and European competitions.
Now to the opening weekend – and the humans v machine scorecards.
Arsenal v Coventry (Emirates Stadium, 20:00 BST)
Arsenal look ominous. Champions, stacked with depth, and fresh from dismantling Manchester City in the Community Shield. Sutton does not overthink it.
“Arsenal are the team to beat, and their squad just looks so strong,” he said. He does not read too much into August curtain-raisers, but the manner of that win over City “was hugely impressive, and shows where they are at.”
The bad news? It all lands on newly promoted Coventry.
Bruno Guimaraes is through the door and Christos Tzolis, who never quite handled the weight of the Norwich shirt, suddenly looks ready for the stage again. Daniel Farke once called Tzolis “one of the brightest young prospects in Europe” when he signed him in 2021, and the winger has gone a long way towards proving him right.
For Frank Lampard and the Sky Blues, it is a brutal reintroduction. Sutton remembers Norwich being thrashed at Liverpool on the opening day in 2019 and sees echoes of that here.
On the flip-side, a point at the Emirates would supercharge Coventry’s season. Sutton just cannot see it.
Sutton’s prediction: 3-0
Liam’s prediction: 3-0
AI’s prediction: 3-0
Liam is delighted to see Coventry back – memories of Merlin sticker albums, Roy Wegerle and Steve Ogrizovic come flooding back – but he thinks they “just need to take the hit here” in about as tough a start as you can get.
Hull v Manchester United (MKM Stadium, 12:30)
Hull are not coming up to make friends. Assistant head coach Dean Holden spelled that out on the Monday Night Club, talking about a side that will be direct, awkward and “horrible to play against”.
At home, first day, against Manchester United – the stage is set. A result here could shape their entire season.
The story behind their promotion already feels like a film script. Sergej Jakirovic hauled them from 21st in the Championship to the play-offs and then the Premier League. Hanging on now is the hard part. Sutton’s concern is last year’s record: Hull lost a third of their league games.
United, by contrast, have had a quiet summer. Youri Tielemans is the headline arrival – “a really good signing, a safe signing,” Sutton calls him, in the mould of last year’s sensible additions Matheus Cunha and Bryan Mbeumo. But the squad looks thin for a Champions League campaign, and Sutton believes Carrick “over-achieved” by finishing third.
Expectations are rising, but “they are nowhere near Arsenal at the moment”. European football while Tottenham and Chelsea sit it out is one reason Sutton has left United out of his top four.
Still, he expects them to start with a win – the beginning of a gruelling season that will demand more reinforcements.
Sutton’s prediction: 1-2
Liam’s prediction: 0-3
AI’s prediction: 1-3
Fray leans into the occasion. A party atmosphere at Hull, he thinks, might suit United. “Hopefully we can start this season the way we finished the last one,” he says, bumping his own forecast up from a cautious 2-0 to a bolder 3-0.
On Marcus Rashford, his loyalty is clear. “I love Marcus, and the fact he is one of ours, and I would love him to come back and be as good as he was for us,” he says. He likens it to walking on stage at a hometown gig – the pull to “make this work” is enormous. Every part of him wants Rashford’s revival to happen. He just cannot say if it will.
Ipswich v Sunderland (Portman Road, 15:00)
There is a mischievous glint when Sutton talks about Ipswich boss Gary O’Neil. A former Norwich player in the Portman Road dugout? “Where do his loyalties really lie? And has he gone to Ipswich to sabotage them?” he jokes.
Then he drops the gag and gets serious. He wants Ipswich to stay up for the sake of East Anglia and likes what they have done in the market. Daizen Maeda, signed from Celtic, is the standout.
Maeda brings relentless energy. Sutton calls him the best presser in the Premier League “bar none”, a perfect fit for a counter-attacking side that wants runners in behind. There are not many quicker.
The blueprint is there. Sunderland last season, Leeds before them – promoted clubs who bought aggressively and made it work. The trick now is knitting all the new faces together, fast. That is O’Neil’s challenge.
Across from them stand Sunderland, who surged into Europe and now face the strain of extra games. Sutton is not sure how their squad will cope, but he expects them to remind everyone just how powerful they were last year.
He still marvels at the way they “beat Arsenal up” more than any other side. They tailed off, and nobody will underestimate them this time, but they still have Granit Xhaka’s authority in midfield and Wilson Isidor and Brian Brobbey up front to do damage.
Sutton’s prediction: 0-1
Liam’s prediction: 2-2
AI’s prediction: 2-1
Fray sees chaos. Ipswich back in the big time, Portman Road roaring, and “some goals” guaranteed.
Nottingham Forest v Leeds (City Ground, 15:00)
Nottingham Forest were pure turbulence last season. Four managers, four styles, and yet they stayed up and went all the way to a Europa League semi-final.
Now Oliver Glasner is in charge. Chris Wood is back fit, which Sutton sees as “great news” – his goals and experience will matter. Elliot Anderson has gone from midfield, but keeping Morgan Gibbs-White and Callum Hudson-Odoi counts as a major win.
On the other bench, Daniel Farke arrives with credit in the bank. Sutton was “delighted” the Leeds boss proved his critics wrong by keeping them up. The club have backed him again: Harry Wilson, so influential for Fulham, joins, and goalkeeper James Trafford is another strong addition.
Sutton will be at the City Ground for Radio 5 Live, but he admits this one is a nightmare to call. Glasner typically used a 3-4-3 at Crystal Palace, yet has insisted he will work with what he has. Formation, approach, balance – all up in the air.
Sutton’s prediction: 1-1
Liam’s prediction: 2-1
AI’s prediction: 2-1
Fray felt all three 3pm games were tight. He refused to pick three draws, so Forest, in his book, edge this one.
Brentford v Tottenham (Gtech Community Stadium, 17:30)
There is a buzz around Spurs again. This time, it feels grounded.
Sandro Tonali drops into midfield, Marcos Senesi and Jan Paul van Hecke strengthen the defence, and Micky van de Ven has signed a new deal. Roberto de Zerbi is in the dugout and expectation follows him in.
Without European football, Spurs have to be thinking top six. The squad looks built for it.
Brentford, though, will not roll over. Keith Andrews delivered a “sensational” first season in charge and now must decide whether to stick with the counter-attacking blueprint that worked so well.
Sutton sees a clear pattern: Spurs will dominate the ball, Brentford will be compact and lethal on the break. Igor Thiago’s extraordinary campaign last year and the presence of Kevin Schade mean goals should not be an issue for the Bees.
Sutton’s prediction: 1-1
Liam’s prediction: 1-2
AI’s prediction: 1-2
Fray is bullish on Tottenham. Tonali, Mateus Fernandes, Andy Robertson and a fully fit James Maddison – four big players who were not there last year. “They are going to have a much better season this time,” he says.
Brighton v Aston Villa (Amex Stadium, 14:00)
Aston Villa are stepping into the Champions League, and Sutton sees the strain coming.
He does not fancy them to make the top four again. Morgan Rogers has gone, Tielemans too, and while Johan Manzambi arrives with talent, asking him to replace Rogers’ impact immediately is a huge demand.
Then there is Alejandro Garnacho. Sutton is not convinced anyone can “get a tune out of him”, but if there is a manager who might, it is Unai Emery.
The goalkeeper situation adds more intrigue. Zion Suzuki has arrived from Japan, fired up and ready. Emiliano Martinez looked set for Juventus before that move collapsed. Only one can play, as Sutton wryly reminded Mark Chapman on the Monday Night Club: plenty of laws changed over the summer, but not that one.
Brighton have taken hits of their own. Danny Welbeck and van Hecke, the spine of last season’s side, have gone. Yet Jack Hinshelwood, “phenomenal” last year, is tipped for a big campaign.
Villa were sluggish starters last season, waiting six league games for a win. Sutton expects a sharper beginning this time.
Sutton’s prediction: 1-2
Liam’s prediction: 1-2
AI’s prediction: 2-2
Fray never quite knows what to expect from Villa, but even with Rogers now at Chelsea, he still leans their way.
Manchester City v Bournemouth (Etihad Stadium, 14:00)
The knives came out for Manchester City after their Community Shield showing. Sutton is not joining in.
He does not think they will retain the title, but talk of a slide into mediocrity ignores the obvious: “look at the players they have got”. City will still be “right up there”.
Bournemouth arrive under Marco Rose, a coach who has built his reputation on front-foot football at RB Leipzig and Red Bull Salzburg. The question is whether he really goes toe-to-toe with City at the Etihad in his first game.
Sutton thinks he will. That means goals – but mostly for the home side.
Sutton’s prediction: 4-1
Liam’s prediction: 3-0
AI’s prediction: 3-1
This will also be the first outing for City’s new stand, with a full house to greet the post-Pep era. Guardiola has gone, but if they can get Phil Foden “firing again”, Fray believes they remain a serious force.
Newcastle v Liverpool (St James’ Park, 16:30)
Newcastle’s summer has felt like a dismantling.
Sutton admires everything he has seen from new boss Matthias Jaissle, but Tonali and Bruno Guimaraes – two “monsters” in midfield – have gone. So has the drive of Anthony Gordon and the experience of Kieran Trippier.
“It is sad to see,” Sutton says. He is not writing Newcastle off, yet senses realism on Tyneside about what this season might bring.
Across the technical area, Liverpool are still adjusting to Andoni Iraola. Pre-season exposed defensive frailties and fitness concerns. “Hopefully they can run for more than half an hour now, too,” Sutton quips. Up front, though, he sees no issues.
Alexander Isak will get a ferocious reception from the home fans after his move, but Sutton is convinced he will shine for Liverpool this year – starting here.
Sutton’s prediction: 1-3
Liam’s prediction: 1-2
AI’s prediction: 1-1
Fray feels for Newcastle supporters. The takeover promised liftoff, but “it never really seems like it got going”. Big players have been sold and he is fascinated to see how St James’ Park reacts. When it is “banging, it is really banging,” he says, but you can also feel when the mood turns. The first few weeks will tell plenty.
Liverpool were “really off it” last season, in his view, but if Isak settles quickly and Florian Wirtz delivers, he expects a very different beast.
Fulham v Chelsea (Craven Cottage, 20:00)
Fulham are stepping into a new era, and Sutton is uneasy about it.
Marco Silva has gone. So has Harry Wilson’s creativity and Raul Jimenez’s work leading the line. In comes Alvaro Arbeloa and a bold youth-focused rebuild in attack: Gonzalo Garcia and Cesar Palacios from Real Madrid, Swedish teenager Jonah Kusi-Asare from Bayern Munich.
If he were a Fulham fan, Sutton says, his concern would be simple. Under Silva, they felt stable. Now? Nobody quite knows what this new direction will bring. They were never in serious trouble last season. He expects more of a fight this time.
Chelsea are also starting again, but the mood is lighter. Xabi Alonso takes over and Sutton anticipates a positive shift.
He does not see a leap from 10th to champions, as happened under Antonio Conte a decade ago – that squad was far stronger. But with Cole Palmer already in place and Morgan Rogers arriving as an exciting addition, Alonso’s arrival feels like a breath of fresh air.
Sutton’s prediction: 0-2
Liam’s prediction: 0-2
AI’s prediction: 1-2
Fray, who still has Craven Cottage on his to-visit list – infinity pool and all – suspects this might be the year Fulham are dragged into a relegation scrap. “Keep an eye on that line, above 18th place,” he warns.
The weekend ends there, but the bigger contest is only just beginning. Humans and machine, trading scores and storylines across a long, unforgiving season. By May, who will be calling it better?
