Levadiakos host Aris Thessalonikis at Levadia Stadium in the Super League 1 Conference League Group on 5 April 2026. This phase decides European play-off positioning, with Levadiakos currently higher in the overall table but coming in on a worrying run of defeats, while Aris remain hard to beat despite limited attacking output.
Across the entire campaign, Levadiakos sit 5th on 42 points (goal difference +14), Aris 8th on 30 points (goal difference -7). Levadiakos have been strong at home (8 wins from 13), while Aris have been competitive away (4 wins, 3 draws, 6 losses).
The Data Deep-Dive
The prediction model gives Levadiakos just 10% win probability, with draw and Aris each at 45%. The official advice is clear: “Double chance: draw or Aris Thessalonikis”, and “Win or draw” for Aris.
Form and goals across the entire campaign underline why the model leans towards the visitors avoiding defeat:
- Levadiakos overall: 12W-6D-8L, scoring 51 and conceding 37 (2.0 for, 1.4 against per match).
- Aris overall: 6W-12D-8L, scoring 20 and conceding 27 (0.8 for, 1.0 against per match).
Despite Levadiakos’ stronger season-long attack, the recent trend is alarming. In their last five matches, Levadiakos have scored only 2 (0.4 per match) and conceded 12 (2.4 per match), with a form rating of 20%. Aris’ last five also show only 2 goals scored (0.4 per match) but a much tighter defence, conceding 6 (1.2 per match). Both sides are rated 20% on recent form, but Aris’ defensive stability (67% vs 33% in the comparison) gives them a resilience edge.
Across the entire campaign, Aris are specialists in low-scoring, tight games: only 4 of their 26 league matches have gone over 1.5 goals for them, and none over 2.5 on the “goals for” metric. Levadiakos, by contrast, are involved in more open matches: 16 of 26 over 1.5 goals scored, and 8 over 2.5.
The prediction model’s goal expectation (“home -2.5, away -1.5”) reinforces an underish angle, especially on Aris’ side. With both teams’ last-five attacking numbers stuck at 0.4 goals per match, a goal-fest looks unlikely.
H2H Analysis – The Atomic Five (and more)
Looking at the most recent five head-to-heads chronologically:
- 2023-01-11 (Cup 1/8 final, in Thessaloniki): Aris 1-0 Levadiakos – Aris win, 1-0.
- 2024-11-03 (league, in Thessaloniki): Aris 3-1 Levadiakos – Aris win, 3-1.
- 2025-02-16 (league, in Levadia): Levadiakos 4-1 Aris – Levadiakos win, 4-1.
- 2025-10-26 (league, in Levadia): Levadiakos 1-1 Aris – draw, 1-1.
- 2026-01-25 (league, in Thessaloniki): Aris 2-2 Levadiakos – draw, 2-2.
Across these five, wins are level: 2 for Aris, 1 for Levadiakos, 2 draws. Goals over those five: Aris 8, Levadiakos 8 – perfectly balanced. However, zooming out to the full H2H set in the JSON (back to 2018), Aris hold a clearer edge, which is reflected in the comparison metric (h2h: 62% Aris, 38% Levadiakos).
Notably, the last three meetings have all avoided an Aris defeat: 2-2, 1-1, and before that Levadiakos’ 4-1 home win. The pattern is of competitive, often high-variance matches, but with Aris usually staying in the game.
Odds and Value Bets
Market prices for the 1X2 are roughly:
- Home (Levadiakos): 2.16–2.50, clustered around 2.35–2.40.
- Draw: 2.88–3.20, around 3.05–3.10.
- Away (Aris): 2.70–3.25, around 3.00–3.10.
Implied probabilities (ignoring margin) put Levadiakos around 41–44%, draw around 31–34%, Aris around 32–37%. This is almost the opposite of the model, which gives Levadiakos only 10% and a combined 90% for draw/Aris.
That discrepancy creates clear value in following the official prediction:
- Double chance: Aris or Draw (X2)
- Market equivalent from 1X2 odds: typically around 1.50–1.60.
- Model probability: 90%.
- Even allowing for model overconfidence, anything above around 1.35 would be fair; current prices around 1.55 suggest significant value.
Given both teams’ low recent scoring (0.4 goals per match each in the last five), and Aris’ season-long average of 0.8 goals for and 1.0 against, an additional angle is:
- Under 2.5 goals
- The model’s “-2.5 / -1.5” goal tags and Aris’ extreme under trend support this.
- With Aris rarely involved in high-scoring games and Levadiakos misfiring lately, a tight match is likely.
The Verdict
Aligning with the official advice and the price/value contrast, the core betting stance is:
- Main bet: Double chance – Draw or Aris Thessalonikis (X2).
- Leaning correct score: 0-1 or 1-1, in a cagey, low-scoring contest.
- Secondary angle: Under 2.5 goals if odds are at or above around 1.75.
Levadiakos’ strong overall home numbers are being overrated by the market relative to their recent collapse and Aris’ defensive solidity. The data-driven edge lies firmly with backing Aris to avoid defeat.
