Newcastle host Qarabag in Newcastle in a UEFA Champions League Round of 32 tie on 24 February 2026 (20:00 UTC). In the overall competition table, Newcastle sit 12th with 14 points and a +10 goal difference, while Qarabag are 22nd with 10 points and a -8 goal difference. Both sides have already earned playoff qualification.
Squad Analysis: Newcastle
Newcastle arrive with one of the competition’s most balanced profiles. Across 9 Champions League matches they have 5 wins, 2 draws and only 2 defeats, taking 17 points from a possible 27. They have scored 23 goals (2.6 per game) and conceded just 8 (0.9 per game), underlining a strong two-way structure. At home they are especially tight: 9 goals for and only 2 against in 4 fixtures, with 3 clean sheets from those 4.
The main attacking reference is Anthony Gordon. The forward has 10 goals and 2 assists in 9 appearances, averaging more than a goal per game, with 14 shots on target from 18 attempts and a 7.74 rating. Harvey Barnes adds a secondary threat with 5 goals and 2 assists in 9 games, hitting the target with 14 of his 16 shots and posting a 7.38 rating.
Injuries could reshape the spine. Bruno Guimaraes (muscle injury) weakens the midfield’s control, while defensive options are hit by the absences of F. Schar (ankle injury), E. Krafth (knee), V. Livramento (hamstring) and suspended M. Thiaw (yellow cards). Y. Wissa (knock) and youngster L. Miley (knee) further reduce rotation options. Even so, 4 clean sheets in 9 and zero matches failed to score show consistent baseline performance.
Squad Analysis: Qarabag
Qarabag come in as a high-variance side. In the Champions League table they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats from 8 games, scoring 13 and conceding 21 for a -8 differential. Their broader season sample (15 matches) reinforces the pattern: 8 wins, 1 draw, 6 losses with 29 goals scored (1.9 per game) but 32 conceded (2.1 per game).
Away from home in this competition they have 1 win and 3 defeats from 4, with 4 goals for and 13 against, conceding over 3 goals per away match. Still, they have produced 4 clean sheets across all venues, showing they can defend in phases if the game script suits them.
Offensively, Leandro Andrade is the standout. The midfielder has 4 goals and 2 assists in 12 appearances, directly contributing to 6 of Qarabag’s 13 Champions League goals (46.1%). He adds 9 key passes and 6 shots on target from 6 attempts, underlining efficiency. Injuries could bite in goal and defence: goalkeeper S. Mahammadaliyev is out injured, while defender B. Mustafazada is questionable. Several “inactive” players (J. Gnali, A. Rzayev, R. Sheydayev) also limit depth.
Key Matchups & Tactical Trends
Battle 1 – Anthony Gordon vs Qarabag’s back line
Gordon’s 10 goals in 9 games face a defence that has shipped 21 goals in 8 Champions League matches (2.6 per game). Qarabag’s wider record of 32 conceded in 15 (2.1 per game) and 13 conceded in 4 away fixtures (3.25 per game) suggests their back four, usually in a 4-2-3-1, will be under constant stress against a Newcastle side averaging 2.6 goals per match and never failing to score.
Battle 2 – Leandro Andrade vs a depleted Newcastle midfield
With Bruno Guimaraes missing, Newcastle lose a key organiser just as they face Andrade, who has 4 goals, 2 assists and 9 key passes. Newcastle’s defensive record of only 8 goals conceded in 9 and 4 clean sheets indicates strong structure, but Andrade’s involvement in 46.1% of Qarabag’s Champions League goals makes his link play crucial to breaking lines, especially if Newcastle’s replacement midfield lacks Guimaraes’ control.
Battle 3 – Discipline and momentum
Newcastle’s yellow-card profile is concentrated early: 6 of their bookings (46.15%) arrive between minutes 16–30, which could matter against a Qarabag side that pushes harder later, with 7 yellows (36.84%) between 61–75 minutes. Qarabag’s defensive aggression is embodied by Matheus Silva and Kevin Medina, each on 4 yellow cards in this competition. Silva has committed 13 fouls and Medina 8, combining for 21 fouls and 8 yellows, suggesting Newcastle’s dribblers Gordon (11 fouls drawn) and Barnes (7 fouls drawn) can win dangerous set-pieces.
The numbers give Newcastle the edge in both attack and defence. They average 2.6 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game, compared to Qarabag’s 1.9 for and 2.1 against. Qarabag’s away record of 4 scored and 13 conceded in 4 matches points to a tie where Newcastle’s firepower and home solidity should dictate the terms.
