The game at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium in Piraeus on 2026-02-18 is a Round of 32 clash in the UEFA Champions League. Both sides come from the league phase, where Bayer Leverkusen finished 16th on 12 points and Olympiakos 18th on 11 points, both advancing to the play-offs. The recent head-to-head is fresh: Olympiakos beat Leverkusen 2–0 at the same venue in January, which gives the Greeks a psychological boost at home.
Team analysis
Form slightly favors Bayer Leverkusen. Their Champions League run shows “WLDWW” in the standings, while Olympiakos arrive with “WWWLD” – strong lately but with a recent dip. Over eight games, Leverkusen have scored 13 and conceded 14; Olympiakos 10 scored and 14 conceded, suggesting broadly similar overall levels.
At home, Olympiakos average 1.5 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. They have two home clean sheets in four, but also one home game without scoring. Their goal distribution shows they are particularly dangerous just after half-time (three goals between 46–60 minutes), yet they are vulnerable late on, conceding 28.57% of goals in the 76–90 range. Several Olympiakos players are listed as missing (including M. Taremi and Y. Yazici), which reduces their attacking depth, even if we cannot confirm their Champions League goal tally from this data.
Leverkusen’s away profile is solid: 1.3 goals scored and only 1.0 conceded per away game, with two clean sheets in four and just one away blank. Defensively, they are far more secure away (4 conceded) than at home (10 conceded). Top scorer Álex Grimaldo has 4 Champions League goals and is not injured, a clear attacking asset from midfield. Leverkusen also show resilience in recent form (WLDWW in the table, and “DDLWWDLW” over the season stats), indicating they rarely collapse. Their injury list (including E. Ben Seghir and N. Tella, plus goalkeeper M. Flekken) trims options but does not remove their main scorer.
Key stat: both teams have gone over 1.5 goals in 5 of 8 games (based on goalsFor under/over data), but only once over 2.5, pointing to tight, mid-scoring contests.
Verdict
Form points slightly toward Bayer Leverkusen, while history and home advantage lean to Olympiakos. With Olympiakos weakened in attack and Leverkusen strong defensively away, the statistics suggest a narrow away edge. Predicted score: Olympiakos Piraeus 1–2 Bayer Leverkusen.
In an odds framework, Leverkusen would merit slight favorite status, with the draw as a serious contender and Olympiakos as live underdogs at home. Goal averages and under/over trends support a bet inclination toward “over 1.5 goals” but caution on “over 2.5”.
