Osasuna welcome Real Betis to Estadio El Sadar in a La Liga clash where both sides are pushing for European positions. Osasuna sit 9th on 38 points with a goal difference of -1, while Betis are 5th on 45 points and currently in the Europa League spots. The market has installed Osasuna as slight favourites at home, but the prediction model leans strongly towards a “home or draw” outcome rather than a clear home win.
Looking at form and performance metrics, this is a classic contrast between a strong home side and a more consistent overall team. Osasuna’s overall record is 10‑8‑12 from 30 matches, but crucially they are excellent at El Sadar: 8‑4‑2 at home with 25 goals scored and 16 conceded. They average 1.8 goals for and 1.1 against per home match and have failed to score at home exactly 0 times, which underlines how reliable they are offensively in Pamplona. Their last‑five form index in the prediction data is modest (33% overall form, 46% attack, 38% defence), but that is dragged down by away results; at home they are significantly stronger.
Real Betis, by contrast, have the better season-long profile but are less dominant on their travels. Overall they are 11‑12‑7 with a +7 goal difference (44 scored, 37 conceded), and their away record stands at 4‑7‑4 with 18 goals scored and 21 conceded. They average 1.2 goals for and 1.4 against away from home. In the last five matches, their form index is just 20%, with attack at 31% and defence at 46%, pointing to a side that has cooled off after a stronger mid‑campaign run. They do, however, have more clean sheets overall (9 versus Osasuna’s 7) and have failed to score only 4 times all season, indicating a generally reliable attack.
The prediction model’s comparison section gives Osasuna the edge in recent form (63% vs 38%) and attacking impact (60% vs 40%), while Betis rate slightly better defensively (53% vs 47%). The Poisson-based goal distribution also leans 56% towards Osasuna versus 44% for Betis, again supporting the idea that the home side has a small but real edge in probability terms. Importantly, the model flags “win or draw” for Osasuna, with percentage estimates of 35% home, 35% draw, 30% away.
Head-to-Head
Head-to-head data is dominated by Betis in recent La Liga meetings, and this must be acknowledged carefully. On 28 September 2025 in La Liga at Estadio de La Cartuja, Betis beat Osasuna 2‑0. On 11 May 2025 in La Liga at Estadio Benito Villamarín, the sides drew 1‑1. On 19 October 2024 in La Liga at Estadio El Sadar, Betis won 2‑1 away. On 5 May 2024 in La Liga at Estadio El Sadar, Betis won 2‑0. On 29 October 2023 in La Liga at Estadio Benito Villamarín, Betis won 2‑1. Going further back in La Liga, Osasuna won 3‑2 at Estadio El Sadar on 22 April 2023, while Betis had earlier home wins of 1‑0 on 26 August 2022, 4‑1 on 3 April 2022, and a 3‑1 away win at El Sadar on 23 September 2021. Separately, in the Copa del Rey on 18 January 2023 at Estadio Benito Villamarín, the match finished 2‑2 with Osasuna progressing as the designated winner. Stripping out that cup tie, Betis clearly have the better league record, especially in Pamplona, which tempers any aggressive pro‑Osasuna stance.
Team News
Team news adds another layer. Osasuna are missing I. Benito (knee injury), F. Boyomo (suspension for yellow cards) and A. Osambela (red card). Betis are without C. Bakambu (inactive), J. Firpo (injury), Isco (ankle injury), G. Lo Celso (thigh injury) and A. Ortiz (shoulder injury). The absences of Isco and Lo Celso in particular reduce Betis’s creative ceiling, while Osasuna still retain their main attacking threat Ante Budimir, who has 15 league goals, and creator Rubén García with 5 assists. Betis still have quality in the final third through players like Juan Camilo Hernández (8 goals, 3 assists) and Antony and Abdessamad Ezzalzouli, both with 5 assists.
Betting Perspective
From a betting perspective, the market is broadly aligned with the prediction model but leaves a small edge on the double‑chance angle. Across major bookmakers, Osasuna’s home win is priced roughly between 2.15 and 2.25, with Pinnacle at 2.22 and Marathonbet at 2.25. The draw ranges from about 3.07 to 3.58, and Betis are around 3.10 to 3.30 with some outliers (SBO as low as 2.86). Implied probabilities from these odds still give Osasuna only a slight favourite status, not overwhelming dominance.
Given the model’s advice “Double chance : Osasuna or draw”, the strong home record of Osasuna, Betis’s dip in recent form, and their key creative injuries, the most rational betting stance is to follow that recommendation. The historical head‑to‑head in La Liga, heavily favouring Betis, argues against a large stake on the straight home win, but does not outweigh the current situational factors and model probabilities.
Betting verdict: Back “Osasuna or draw” on the double‑chance market, in line with the official prediction. For correct score purposes, a tight low‑scoring contest such as 1‑1 or 1‑0 to Osasuna fits both the goal averages and the under‑2.5 goals projection in the model.
