Premier League Predictions: Arsenal, United, and Chaos Ahead

Pre-season is supposed to bring optimism. This one brings something else: a pile of predictions that will sit there, quietly, waiting to mock everyone by May.

At least there’s one area of rare consensus.

Title race: Arsenal crowned, one loud voice for United

Asked the traditional question – who wins the league? – the panel almost turned it into an Arsenal fan club meeting.

Sarah Winterburn doesn’t see the point in overthinking it. After a summer of stability and the headline signing of Bruno Guimaraes, she has Arsenal winning the title at a canter, no team within 10 points.

Matt Stead calls it “Phase five” of the Arteta project and puts the crown on their head. Dave Tickner, far more bullish than last year, thinks Arsenal can finally cash in on being the only properly settled side while everyone else wrestles with year-one rebuilds. Ian Watson, Jason Soutar, Lewis Oldham, Michael Lee and Nestor Watach all line up behind Arsenal as champions, each leaning on the same themes: stability, evolution, and rivals in various stages of disarray.

Samuel Bannister edges towards nuance. Arsenal are “favourites” but he sees it being tight, likening them to PSG finally cracking the Champions League and then backing it up. For him, Bruno Guimaraes is the kind of elite reinforcement you use to defend a title, not just win one.

Then comes the dissenting voice.

John Nicholson goes straight for Manchester United. Not as a wild punt, he insists, but rooted in last season’s form under Michael Carrick. In his view, they were the league’s best side over that spell – and that’s enough to make them his champions.

The rest of the top four: Chelsea revival, City drift, Liverpool lurking

If predicting the champions feels straightforward, working out the rest of the top four is a minefield. The answers are scattered everywhere.

Winterburn keeps it simple: Chelsea a “long way behind” Arsenal, then Liverpool, then Manchester City, with Manchester United in fifth as a bonus throw-in.

Stead goes for “Cobham Current Gen” – Chelsea’s academy-fuelled new era – followed by Manchester City and Liverpool. Nicholson has Chelsea second, City third and Aston Villa completing the four. Tickner, fully aware of how ridiculous this exercise is in a season of flux, still lands on Chelsea, Liverpool, City – but admits he has “almost zero confidence” in any of it.

Ian Watson barely wants to answer at all. Forced into it, he offers City, Chelsea, Tottenham, and admits the same question 10 minutes later might get a different response. Soutar chooses Chelsea, City and Spurs. Oldham backs City, Chelsea and Liverpool, with City missing out on the title by a similar margin to last year and Chelsea benefitting from the absence of European football.

Michael Lee goes Chelsea, City, Liverpool, with a side note that Spurs could sneak in with a favourable wind. Watach has City, Liverpool and United, with Chelsea fifth – which, in the new landscape, should still mean Champions League football. Bannister settles on Liverpool, City and Chelsea, talking up Isak under Iraola and Wirtz as reasons Liverpool will improve, while City stumble into the post-Pep era with lingering questions but some carried momentum. A Europe-free Chelsea, he says, should exploit the clear calendar.

Nobody agrees. Which, in this season, feels about right.

Relegation: promoted trio in trouble, Fulham and Palace in the crosshairs

At the other end, the mood darkens quickly for the newcomers.

Winterburn tips Ipswich, Coventry and Hull to go straight back down. She’s intrigued by Fulham and Crystal Palace but can’t quite drag them below that trio.

Stead also sends Hull and Coventry down, though he expects Coventry to go down swinging. Ipswich, in his scenario, survive by embracing a “Leeds Protocol” of signing a team of six-footers, while Sunderland get swallowed by the numbers – “xG’d”, as he puts it.

Nicholson goes harder. Hull, plus Newcastle and Crystal Palace, all relegated after new-manager collapses. Tickner doesn’t bother dressing it up: the three promoted clubs, gone. He sees no Sunderland or Leeds-style shock survivor among this crop. “It’s just Burnleys.”

Watson lines up with Ipswich, Hull and Coventry. Soutar is even more brutal. Fulham “have to be feared for”, Ipswich are “rubbish” and Hull “proper rubbish.” Oldham has Hull and Ipswich as certainties, but thinks Coventry’s momentum under Frank Lampard will keep them up, with Fulham dropping into 18th instead.

Michael Lee throws Sunderland into the mix alongside Coventry and Hull, expecting Ipswich’s “tidy signings” to keep them afloat. Sunderland, he warns, could be sidetracked by Europe after last season’s overachievement. Watach again goes for the full promoted trio. He sees a “grim” return to the emerging norm, with little chance of a Leeds or Sunderland-style resistance.

Bannister mirrors that: Ipswich, Hull, Coventry. He expects Coventry to give it the best go of the three and flags Palace as the existing Premier League side most likely to flirt with real danger.

Surprise packages: Leeds hype, Newcastle redemption, Coventry survival story

The idea of a “pleasant surprise” feels almost quaint in the modern Premier League, but the panel plays along.

Winterburn doesn’t think it’ll be pleasant for her as a Huddersfield fan, yet she picks Leeds United to break into the top eight after an impressive window.

Stead pushes Bournemouth and Crystal Palace into the top half. Nicholson has Leeds going even higher – all the way to sixth – buoyed by upgrades in goal, at centre-back, in midfield and up front.

Tickner pauses for a wider point: the only true “pleasant surprise” these days, he argues, is when Spurs or Manchester United are hilariously bad. Still, taking the question at face value, he chooses Palace as the side that everyone “fears for” but who end up absolutely fine, Brentford-style. He also quietly suggests Chelsea as genuine title contenders, but concedes that doesn’t really qualify as “pleasant” or even much of a surprise.

Watson keeps it short: Leeds will be surprising, if not necessarily pleasant. Soutar has Chelsea shocking people with a top-two finish, while calling Coventry’s 15th place “a nicer story.” Oldham again leans into the Leeds wave, tipping them for a top-10 finish and predicting Coventry will survive, even if they don’t match Sunderland’s heights from last year.

Lee toys with the idea of Chelsea in second, then settles on Nottingham Forest returning to Europe. Watach is firmly in the Leeds camp, pointing to their excellent second half of last season and a summer that appears to have significantly strengthened Daniel Farke’s squad. A Conference League push, he says, is not out of the question.

Bannister breaks from the Leeds chorus and backs Newcastle to bounce back. He doesn’t see them being as underwhelming as last season, and while he admits he hadn’t heard of some of their new young signings a couple of months ago, he still expects a top-half return.

Golden Boot: the Erling Haaland procession

On the Golden Boot, there is barely a debate.

Winterburn, Stead, Nicholson, Watson, Soutar, Oldham, Lee, Watach and Bannister all land on the same answer: Erling Haaland. Some add colour – three in four seasons since arriving, no one else in his stratosphere – but the conclusion is identical.

Oldham and Winterburn both nominate Alexander Isak as the likeliest runner-up. Nicholson throws Benjamin Sesko into the mix as a strong second.

Tickner stretches the conversation towards betting value. Haaland – “Goalbot 3000” – will, he says, have it wrapped up after his usual 12-in-nine start on the way to about 30 goals. With Haaland so short, he looks elsewhere for each-way fun, floating Matheus Cunha and Cody Gakpo as big-price options if the latter ends up leading the line at Spurs and doesn’t “make a b*llocks” of it.

But the award itself? Everyone knows where that’s heading.

Best new signing: Leeds’ Trafford and Arsenal’s Guimaraes lead the praise

This is where things open up again.

Winterburn highlights Mamadou Sangare as a massive upgrade on Jordan Henderson at Brentford, but for the bigger clubs she circles Sandro Tonali at Tottenham as a player who could drag them from 17th to seventh.

Stead goes straight for James Trafford by definition, given how crucial a reliable goalkeeper can be, and also tips Jeremy Jacquet as a huge upgrade on whatever Ibrahima Konate has become. Nicholson thinks Morgan Rogers is exactly the profile Chelsea need.

Tickner, still high on the Community Shield, picks Christos Tzolis. Watson believes Bruno Guimaraes will be “great for Arsenal” but again underlines Trafford’s importance to Leeds, simply by not being “dicey”.

Soutar doesn’t split hairs: he picks Leeds’ first three signings – Trafford, Harry Wilson and Tarik Muharemovic – as a collective. Oldham keeps riding the Leeds wave too, calling Trafford a colossal upgrade who could end the season as England’s No.1.

Lee jokes that Jordan Henderson’s main impact will be pointing and cone duties, and warns that Manchester United might regret not paying up for Mateus Fernandes. Watach is enthralled by Muharemovic’s pre-season at Leeds, backing the Bosnia international to replace Pascal Struijk and take the team up a level, with Champions League links inevitable within a year.

Bannister admits Leeds may have overpaid for Trafford but insists the security he’ll bring in goal is exactly what they’ve been missing – and the perfect platform for his own development.

Guimaraes for Arsenal. Trafford for Leeds. Tonali for Spurs. Tzolis at Arsenal. The impact list is long, and heavily tilted towards clubs trying to make the final step.

Biggest flop: all eyes on Elliot Anderson and Morgan Rogers

To flop, you need a hefty fee. That’s Winterburn’s logic, and it leads her straight to Elliot Anderson at Manchester City. A runner and worker, she says, but not enough at City’s level for that “frankly ridiculous” price.

Stead singles out Gonzalo Garcia at Fulham, leaning on their poor history when they spend more than £20m on a player. Nicholson stays on brand: a big-money Tottenham signing who was excellent elsewhere. Sandro Tonali fits the bill.

Tickner, again with one eye on the Community Shield, calls Anderson the most egregious of this summer’s many overspends in midfield. Watson names Alejandro Garnacho and fears for Morgan Rogers under the weight of his fee.

Soutar is brutal on Ronald Araujo – “bobbins, proper bobbins” – and also doubts Victor Munoz at Liverpool. Oldham points at Andrey Santos and the £50m fee that “feels like A LOT”.

Lee returns to Anderson, not because he thinks he’s a bad player but because £116m is “extortionate” and City might not be the right place at the right time. Watach also goes for Rogers, the second most expensive signing in Premier League history. He simply can’t get past that number.

Bannister completes the pile-on. Anderson, he says, will be judged harshly from day one because of the fee, and he doubts the midfielder will ever fully convince.

Biggest bargain: Wilson for free, Tielemans for £35m, and a cut-price Hackney

At the other end of the market, the panel finds rare joy.

Winterburn calls Youri Tielemans at £35m “a steal”. Stead expects Harry Wilson to continue Leeds’ proud tradition of free signings hitting double figures for goals, and tips Sean Steur to set up a nine-figure move that funds “Newcastle 3.0”.

Nicholson again labels Wilson on a free as perfect business for Leeds. Tickner agrees, admitting free transfers feel like cheating but arguing Leeds’ long pursuit of Wilson, finally landing him after his best season, makes it special.

Watson sticks with freebies: Wilson or Xaver Schlager. Soutar also goes Wilson, with honourable mentions for Tzolis and Senesi.

Oldham breaks the pattern and highlights Christian Norgaard as an excellent pick-up by Everton after his superb 2024/25 at Brentford. Lee flips the logic and calls Trafford a bargain despite his status as Leeds’ record signing, purely for the points he’ll save.

Watach can’t believe Hayden Hackney’s initial £16m fee in such an inflated market, noting that lesser players have gone for twice that. Bannister hovers between Tielemans at £35m and Tzolis at £34m, finally leaning towards the Arsenal winger as a market-relative bargain.

PFA Player of the Year: Rice, Guimaraes, Haaland… and a shout for Raya

Predicting the PFA Player of the Year is a thankless task. Bruno Fernandes’ win last season underlined that.

Winterburn goes for Bruno Guimaraes, backing him to unlock extra creativity in the champions’ midfield. Stead picks Bukayo Saka, now a World Cup hat-trick scorer and already a superstar.

Nicholson again throws his weight behind Anderson and adds Brian Madjo as his Young Player of the Year. Tickner sees Declan Rice as the standout, arguing that fewer games in a deeper Arsenal midfield will actually amplify his influence after he ended the World Cup looking utterly exhausted.

Watson also lands on Rice – “assuming he’s had a holiday.” Soutar and Lee both go for David Raya, an unusual but telling nod to Arsenal’s structure and reliance on their goalkeeper.

Oldham follows the old rule: the winner usually comes from the champions. With Arsenal his title pick, he backs Guimaraes, fresh from a strong World Cup and the perfect foil for Rice. Watach once more points to Rice as the man capable of becoming the headline act in a side without one outstanding star last season.

Bannister keeps it simple: same as his Golden Boot pick. If Haaland scores a bucketload again, he’ll take this as well.

First manager out: Arbeloa on the edge, Hull’s Jakirovic in danger

The dugout is no safer than the pitch.

Winterburn’s first pick for the sack race is Alvaro Arbeloa at Fulham. “It just doesn’t feel quite right,” she says. Stead shrugs at the futility of the prediction, then lands on David Moyes.

Nicholson names Sergej Jakirovic. Tickner returns to a familiar theme: Nottingham Forest and their owner, Evangelos Marinakis. He chooses Oliver Glasner purely on the basis of Forest’s trigger-happy history, arguing that most clubs at least pretend to be reluctant about early sackings. Marinakis, he says, does not.

Watson can’t see an obvious candidate among the many new faces. He thinks Matthias Jaissle will benefit from low expectations at Newcastle and warns that “Diet Pep” at City could be under pressure early, but still lands on Arbeloa and jokes that the Fulham statue can thank him later. Soutar simply dooms “the bloke from Hull”.

Oldham also picks Arbeloa after a poor couple of months. Lee goes for Jakirovic and looks forward to Hull’s owner becoming a “Main Character” by sparking Greece–Turkey beef with Marinakis.

Watach again senses expendability around Jakirovic, likening him to a horror film bit-part who doesn’t make it past the first act. Bannister worries for Regis Le Bris at Sunderland, fearing second-season syndrome after he arguably did too well in their first year back up.

Champions League: Barcelona, PSG, Arsenal and the weight of history

Beyond England, the panel scatter their chips across Europe.

Winterburn goes for Barcelona, pointing to Rodri as the signing that explains it all. Stead keeps his answer cryptic: “Pretty simple guess.”

Nicholson expects PSG to be hard to stop again, though he’d love a Como fairytale. Tickner, looking at Arsenal’s Champions League trajectory – quarter-finals, then semi-finals, then runners-up – pushes them to go one better and win it, completing a Premier League–Champions League double. Anything less, he says, and they’re “Fraud McBottlejobs”.

Watson picks Real Madrid. Soutar follows the same Arsenal logic: QF in 2024, SF in 2025, losing finalists in 2026, winners in 2027.

Oldham wants it to be Jose Mourinho’s Real Madrid, but thinks PSG are simply too strong. Lee again puts Barcelona in the frame, provided they sign a proper partner for Pau Cubarsi. If not, he also leans towards another PSG triumph.

Watach joins the Barcelona camp, seeing Rodri as the missing piece for total control, just as he was for Spain at the World Cup. Bannister expects PSG to make it three in a row, convinced something has finally clicked in Europe and that they now know how to manage the big occasions.

Five-word verdicts: what excites them most

The final task: five words to sum up what excites them this season.

Winterburn: “So very many new managers.” Stead: “An offside penis; not Richarlison.” Nicholson: “Montrose In Scottish League One.” Tickner: “Neverending moral panic about corners.” Watson: “Tottenham Hotspur making Tickers smile.” Soutar: “Keys and Gray’s podcast returning.” Oldham: “Rotherham United maybe winning more.” Lee: “No VAR in the Championship.” Watach: “New managers; uncertainty, unpredictability, chaos.”

The predictions are in. The certainty isn’t. Now the season gets to decide who ends up looking prophetic – and who gets laughed at for years.