Tofiq Bahramov Stadium in Baku hosts a Round of 32 tie with contrasting European profiles. Qarabag arrive as dangerous underdogs, ranked 22nd with 10 points and a negative goal difference (-8), but strong at home: 2 wins and 1 draw from 4 Champions League games, scoring 9 times. Newcastle sit 12th in the overall table with 14 points and a +10 goal difference, boasting one of the competition’s meanest defences (7 conceded in 8). Away from home, though, the Magpies have been solid rather than dominant (W1 D2 L1).
Key Insight
The decisive factor could be whether Newcastle’s firepower outweighs Qarabag’s leaky back line. Newcastle average 2.1 goals per game, driven by in-form attackers Anthony Gordon (6 goals, 3 penalties scored) and Harvey Barnes (5 goals). Qarabag, meanwhile, concede 1.9 goals per match overall and 1.7 at home, but still carry a threat through Leandro Andrade and Camilo Durán (4 goals each). However, the visitors’ injuries are significant: Bruno Guimaraes, Fabian Schar, Emil Krafth and Valentino Livramento are all ruled out, with Joelinton and others doubtful, which could disrupt both their build-up and defensive stability.
Expect Newcastle’s quality to edge a lively, attacking contest, but Qarabag’s home form and the Magpies’ injury list point to a closer tie than the rankings suggest.
