Real Madrid vs Alaves: La Liga Match Preview
Real Madrid welcome Alaves to Estadio Santiago Bernabéu on 21 April 2026 in La Liga round 33, with the hosts chasing the top of the table and the visitors still looking over their shoulder near the relegation battle. Real Madrid sit 2nd with 70 points and a +36 goal difference after 31 matches, while Alaves are 17th on 33 points and -11, a clear gap in quality that is also reflected in both form data and the betting markets.
Over the last five matches, Real Madrid’s overall form index is 67%, with a very strong attacking index of 92% but a more vulnerable defensive index of 42%, averaging 2.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Across the league campaign, they have 22 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses, scoring 65 and conceding 29. At home they are particularly dominant: 13 wins, 1 draw and only 2 defeats from 16, with 37 goals scored (2.3 per game) and just 13 conceded (0.8 per game). They have kept 5 home clean sheets and failed to score only twice at the Bernabéu.
Alaves’ recent data paints a different picture. Their last-five form index is 40%, but with a 100% attacking index and 0% defensive index, they have been involved in wild games, scoring 12 and conceding 12 (2.4 for and 2.4 against per match). Over the league as a whole they have 8 wins, 9 draws and 14 losses, with 35 goals scored and 46 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats in 16 matches, scoring 16 (1.0 per game) and conceding 28 (1.8 per game). They have only 1 away clean sheet and have failed to score in 7 of 16 away fixtures, underlining how difficult this trip is likely to be.
Head-to-Head Data
Head-to-head data in La Liga is heavily tilted towards Real Madrid. The prediction JSON lists 10 league meetings back to July 2020 (excluding friendlies). In the most recent clash on 14 December 2025 at Estadio Mendizorrotza in La Liga, Alaves lost 1-2 at home. On 13 April 2025, also in La Liga at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Real Madrid won 1-0 away. On 24 September 2024 at the Bernabéu in La Liga, Real Madrid edged a 3-2 home victory. On 14 May 2024 in La Liga at the Bernabéu, Real Madrid won 5-0. On 21 December 2023 at Estadio de Mendizorroza in La Liga, Real Madrid again won 1-0 away. Going further back, there are additional La Liga wins for Real Madrid on 19 February 2022 (3-0 at the Bernabéu), 14 August 2021 (4-1 away at Estadio de Mendizorroza), 23 January 2021 (4-1 away), and 10 July 2020 (2-0 at the Bernabéu). The only Alaves success in this run is the 2-1 away La Liga win at Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano on 28 November 2020. Overall in these 10 league meetings, Real Madrid have 9 wins and Alaves 1, with no draws.
Prediction Model
The prediction model strongly favours Real Madrid, assigning 45% probability to a home win, 45% to a draw and only 10% to an away victory, but crucially the official advice is not a straight home win. The recommended angle is a combo: double chance Real Madrid or draw plus over 1.5 goals. This is supported by the goal trends: Real Madrid matches have gone over 1.5 goals in 22 of 31 league games, and Alaves’ games have gone over 1.5 in 10 of 31, with both teams’ recent five-game samples averaging well above 2.0 total goals.
Bookmaker odds are in line with this one-sided profile. Home prices are between 1.22 and 1.29 across major firms (Bet365 at 1.22, Pinnacle at 1.26, Betfair and Marathonbet at 1.29), implying a very high home win probability. Draw odds cluster between 5.13 and 6.00, while away prices range from 7.72 (SBO) up to 13.00 (Bet365). Given these markets, the model’s “Win or draw” comment on the winner and the combo double chance plus over 1.5 goals is a pragmatic way to extract value while covering the rare draw scenario and leaning into the strong expectation of at least two goals.
Prediction: Real Madrid should control the match and are highly likely to avoid defeat. The data-backed betting verdict, aligned with the official advice, is: Double chance Real Madrid or draw and over 1.5 total goals.
