Match Context
Mallorca host Real Madrid at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix in La Liga on 4 April 2026. In the league phase after 29 rounds, Mallorca sit 18th with 28 points and a -13 goal difference, in the relegation zone. Real Madrid are 2nd with 69 points and a +37 goal difference, firmly in the title race and Champions League places.
The Data Deep-Dive (Overall)
Across the entire campaign, the gap in performance is stark:
- Mallorca have 7 wins, 7 draws and 15 losses from 29 matches, scoring 34 and conceding 47 (1.2 scored and 1.6 conceded per match).
- Real Madrid have 22 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 29, with 63 goals scored and 26 conceded (2.2 scored and 0.9 conceded per match).
Home/away splits reinforce the imbalance. Mallorca are relatively competitive at home: 6 wins, 4 draws, 4 losses, with 21 scored and 18 conceded (1.5 for, 1.3 against). Real Madrid are very strong travellers: 9 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses away, with 27 scored and 14 conceded (1.9 for, 1.0 against).
Recent form in the prediction model’s last-five sample also tilts towards the visitors: Mallorca’s form index is 27% with 5 goals for and 8 against (1.0 vs 1.6 per match), while Real Madrid show 60% form with 10 scored and 7 conceded (2.0 vs 1.4).
Offensively, Real Madrid are on another level. Their attack rating in the comparison section is 67% vs Mallorca’s 33%, and they average over 2 goals per match overall. Defensively, Mallorca concede more frequently and heavily; their defence rating is slightly lower (47% vs 53%) and they have only 3 clean sheets overall, compared with Real Madrid’s 11.
The model’s global comparison gives Real Madrid 71.2% vs Mallorca’s 28.8%, and the Poisson-based distribution favours the away side 70%-30%. Despite this, the prediction percent block is unusual: 10% home, 45% draw, 45% away, but the explicit advice is clear: “Winner : Real Madrid”.
H2H Analysis – The Atomic Five (and more)
Looking at the last ten head-to-heads in the JSON, Real Madrid have dominated:
- 2025-08-30 (La Liga, Bernabéu): Real Madrid 2-1 Mallorca – Madrid win.
- 2025-05-14 (La Liga, Bernabéu): Real Madrid 2-1 Mallorca – Madrid win.
- 2025-01-09 (Super Cup, Jeddah): Real Madrid 3-0 Mallorca – Madrid win.
- 2024-08-18 (La Liga, Son Moix): Mallorca 1-1 Real Madrid – Draw.
- 2024-04-13 (La Liga, Son Moix): Mallorca 0-1 Real Madrid – Madrid win.
These are the most recent five. Extending further back:
- 2024-01-03: Real Madrid 1-0 Mallorca – Madrid win.
- 2023-02-05: Mallorca 1-0 Real Madrid – Mallorca win.
- 2022-09-11: Real Madrid 4-1 Mallorca – Madrid win.
- 2022-03-14: Mallorca 0-3 Real Madrid – Madrid win.
- 2021-09-22: Real Madrid 6-1 Mallorca – Madrid win.
Across these ten, Real Madrid have 8 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss. The goals tally is 23-6 in Madrid’s favour, accurately reflecting their dominance. At Son Moix specifically, Mallorca have managed one win (1-0 in 2023) and one draw (1-1 in 2024), but Madrid have still taken three of the last five away to Mallorca.
Pre-Match Odds & Value Angles
Bookmakers price Real Madrid as clear favourites:
- Away win ranges from around 1.51 (SBO) to 1.60 (Marathonbet), with many firms clustered around 1.53–1.58.
- Home win ranges roughly 4.94–6.00.
- Draw is around 3.84–4.50.
Implied probabilities from the sharper end (e.g. Pinnacle 1.57 away) put Real Madrid near 63–65% to win before overround, which aligns well with the model’s 71.2% total edge and strong Poisson skew. The prediction engine’s “Winner: Real Madrid” is therefore consistent with the market, but the price is short.
From a value perspective, a straight away win at around 1.55–1.60 looks fair rather than generous: it reflects Real Madrid’s superior attack, away record and H2H dominance, but doesn’t leave huge margin for error.
Given Mallorca’s relatively solid home scoring rate (1.5 per match) and the fact that they have scored in three of the last four home meetings vs Real Madrid (1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-3), markets involving Mallorca goals or handicap lines could be more interesting if available. However, with only 1.6 goals conceded on average by Mallorca and 0.9 by Madrid overall, and no explicit totals odds in the data, it’s safer to stick with the match-winner market.
The Verdict
The official prediction data clearly advises: Winner – Real Madrid. Combining that with their overwhelming statistical superiority overall, strong away form, and an 8-1-1 H2H edge in the last ten, the away win is the logical core bet.
Recommended betting angle (based strictly on provided data and odds):
- Real Madrid to win at around 1.55–1.60.
It is a low-variance, model-backed position rather than a high-value outlier, but remains the most data-driven play for this fixture.
