AC Milan vs Benfica Prediction: Key Stats, Lineups, and Betting Tips

AC Milan open their UEFA Europa League League Stage campaign with a heavyweight clash against Benfica in Milan on 16 September 2026. It is a meeting of two European giants at very different stages of preparation: Milan are yet to kick a ball in this season’s competition, while Benfica arrive with six Europa League games already under their belt and a prolific attack.

Played in Milan (venue still to be confirmed), this League Stage - 1 fixture will help shape the early narrative of the group-style phase. Benfica sit 4th in the overall League Round ranking despite having 0 points recorded so far in the standings snapshot, backed by strong recent form and an attacking output of 19 goals in 6 matches in this Europa League campaign. Milan, ranked 23rd with 0 points and no matches played, are effectively stepping into the unknown at continental level this season.

For those looking at AC Milan vs Benfica prediction and betting tips, the contrast is stark: Milan’s European slate is clean, while Benfica’s numbers are already substantial. That dynamic, plus the odds and model probabilities, makes this one of the most intriguing early fixtures in the Europa League League Stage.

AC Milan vs Benfica Key Stats

• AC Milan are 23rd in the Europa League League Round ranking with 0 matches played, 0 goals scored and 0 conceded.
• The last meeting between the sides was on 28 July 2019 in the International Champions Cup, where Benfica beat AC Milan 1-0 at Gillette Stadium.
• In this Europa League season, Benfica have scored 19 goals and conceded 6 across 6 matches, averaging 3.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game, with 1 clean sheet.

AC Milan vs Benfica — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 23 vs 4
• Points: 0 vs 0
• Goals For: 0 vs 0 (standings snapshot)
• Goals Against: 0 vs 0 (standings snapshot)
• Clean Sheets: AC Milan 0 (tournament statistics) vs Benfica 1 (tournament statistics)

The standings data is effectively a pre-kickoff snapshot: both AC Milan and Benfica are on 0 points with no goals for or against recorded in the League Round table. Milan’s 23rd place, tagged with a “Play Offs” description, reflects seeding and expectations more than on-pitch performance at this stage.

Benfica’s 4th place, by contrast, is underpinned by substantial Europa League statistics outside the raw table: 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from 6 fixtures, plus a goal difference of +13 (19 scored, 6 conceded). Their home matches have been especially dominant, with 14 goals scored and just 2 conceded in 3 games. While the official League Round standings are level, the broader tournament context shows Benfica arriving as a battle-hardened side, whereas Milan are an unknown quantity in this specific campaign.

AC Milan vs Benfica Key Matchups

AC Milan attacking unit vs V. Pavlidis

AC Milan’s individual Europa League scoring data is not yet established for this season, so the focus is on their collective attacking talent. Names like Gonçalo Ramos, Christian Pulišić, Samuel Chukwueze and Adrien Rabiot suggest considerable firepower, even if their current Europa League numbers are not recorded in the stats.

They face Vangelis Pavlidis, who has been the standout forward in this Europa League run for Benfica. Pavlidis has 5 goals and 1 assist in just 3 appearances, and also features at the top of the assists and disciplinary charts with 1 yellow card but no reds. His output of 6 direct goal contributions in 3 games makes him the most dangerous individual in the tie. Milan’s back line, which includes Fikayo Tomori, Matteo Gabbia and Clément Lenglet’s former club teammate Luka Modrić screening in midfield, will need to find a way to disrupt the supply to Pavlidis and limit his space in the box.

AC Milan midfield vs Rafa and A. Schjelderup

In midfield, Milan can call on Luka Modrić, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Yunus Musah and A. Rabiot to control tempo and possession. Their job will be to manage Benfica’s fluid attacking midfielders, particularly Rafa and Andreas Schjelderup.

Rafa has 2 goals and 1 assist from 4 Europa League appearances, while Schjelderup has chipped in with 1 goal and 1 assist in 3 games. Both also rank highly in the assists list, underlining their creative influence. With Benfica often using formations like 4-2-3-1 and 4-1-3-2, these two operate between the lines, combining with Pavlidis and wide threats such as Dodi Lukebakio (1 goal, 1 assist in 2 appearances) and J. Durán (1 goal in 3 games). Milan’s midfield structure and pressing intensity will be crucial in preventing Benfica’s creators from dictating the game.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

The recent head-to-head history between AC Milan and Benfica is limited but leans towards the Portuguese side. Their last recorded encounter came in a pre-season international competition on neutral soil.

• 28 July 2019: AC Milan 0-1 Benfica (International Champions Cup)

AC Milan vs Benfica Prediction

Stats suggest a clash between an untested Milan side in this Europa League season and a Benfica outfit already in full competitive rhythm. Benfica’s recent tournament form reads LWWDWW, with 4 wins from 6, 19 goals scored and only 6 conceded. Their last five matches in all competitions referenced by the prediction model show 18 goals scored and just 4 conceded, underlining both attacking potency and defensive solidity.

Milan, by contrast, have no recorded Europa League fixtures, goals or form string for this campaign. That lack of data does not mean lack of quality, but it does introduce uncertainty. The comparison block heavily favours Benfica on form and attack, while giving Milan a theoretical edge in defence based purely on having conceded no goals yet (with no matches played).

The prediction probabilities give Benfica a 50% chance of victory, the draw at 50%, and AC Milan at 0%. That is an unusually binary split, but it clearly positions Benfica as the more likely winners when the game does not end level. Given Milan’s home advantage and individual quality, a tight contest is likely rather than a rout.

Predicted Score: AC Milan 1-2 Benfica

AC Milan Recent Form

AC Milan have no recorded Europa League form string or matches played in the current League Stage. With 0 games, 0 goals scored and 0 conceded in the standings and team statistics, their recent tournament form is effectively a blank slate. Any assessment of Milan here leans on squad quality rather than hard Europa League numbers.

Benfica Recent Form

Benfica come into this clash in strong recent form. Their Europa League run is marked by a sequence of LWWDWW, reflecting 4 wins, 1 draw and just 1 defeat across 6 matches. They have scored 19 goals (an average of 3.2 per game) and conceded only 6 (1.0 per game), with a notable 6-1 home win among their biggest results.

In their last five matches captured by the predictions data, Benfica have 18 goals scored and only 4 conceded, with attacking and defensive indices both very high. They have also converted all 4 penalties awarded (100% success), adding another layer of efficiency in decisive moments.

AC Milan Possible Starting Lineup

GK: M. Maignan Defenders: M. Gabbia, F. Tomori, K. De Winter, D. Bartesaghi Midfielders: L. Modrić, R. Loftus-Cheek, Y. Musah Forwards: C. Pulišić, Gonçalo Ramos, S. Chukwueze

Milan’s squad list points to a blend of experience and youth. Mike Maignan is the natural choice in goal, protected by a central defensive unit likely built around F. Tomori and M. Gabbia, with K. De Winter and D. Bartesaghi options in the back line. In midfield, Luka Modrić brings elite control and passing, supported by the physicality and ball-carrying of Ruben Loftus-Cheek and the energy of Yunus Musah.

In attack, Gonçalo Ramos offers penalty-box presence, while Christian Pulišić and Samuel Chukwueze provide creativity and one-on-one threat from wide areas. Depth options such as A. Rabiot, A. Saelemaekers and F. Camarda give Milan flexibility to adjust shape between a 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1 as the game demands.

Benfica Possible Starting Lineup

GK: A. Trubin Defenders: A. Bah, C. Lenglet, Tomás Araújo, S. Dahl Midfielders: João Palhinha, L. Barreiro, H. Sudakov Forwards: Rafa, A. Schjelderup, V. Pavlidis

Benfica’s Europa League statistics and squad composition suggest a side comfortable in both 4-2-3-1 and 4-1-3-2 structures. Anatoliy Trubin is the logical first-choice goalkeeper. At the back, C. Lenglet and Tomás Araújo have both contributed goals from defence in this campaign, while A. Bah and S. Dahl offer width and defensive balance.

In midfield, João Palhinha can anchor the centre, with L. Barreiro and H. Sudakov providing work rate and progressive passing. Ahead of them, Rafa and A. Schjelderup operate as creative attackers behind V. Pavlidis, whose 5 goals and 1 assist make him the focal point. D. Lukebakio, J. Durán and G. Prestianni are potent alternatives or impact substitutes, underlining the depth in Benfica’s forward line.

AC Milan Team News

No significant absences reported.

Benfica Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

AC Milan:

• None reported.

Benfica:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: AC Milan vs Benfica

Below are three data-driven betting angles for this Europa League League Stage clash.

• Result Tip: Benfica Draw No Bet With Benfica given a 50% win probability and AC Milan just 0%, the model clearly favours the Portuguese side when the game does not end level. However, the bookmakers’ odds for the match winner market have AC Milan as slight favourites at home (home odds between 2.05 and 2.14, implying roughly 46.7%–48.8% chance) versus Benfica’s away odds between 3.20 and 3.49 (around 28.7%–31.3%). Taking Benfica on a Draw No Bet line (where available, derived from these moneyline prices) offers a way to back their stronger tournament form while protecting against a stalemate.
• Goals Tip: Over 2.5 Goals Benfica’s Europa League games have been high-scoring: 19 goals for and 6 against in 6 matches, averaging 4.2 total goals per game, with 4 of those 6 fixtures clearing at least 2.5 goals. Milan’s lack of tournament data adds uncertainty, but their attacking personnel suggests they can contribute. With the draw priced between 3.40 and 3.62 (implied 27.6%–29.4%), the market expects an open contest rather than a cagey 0-0. Over 2.5 goals should be a live option at competitive odds in the totals market.
• Value Tip: V. Pavlidis to Score Anytime V. Pavlidis has 5 goals and 1 assist in just 3 Europa League appearances, and also features in the top yellow and red card lists without having been sent off. He is clearly central to Benfica’s attacking scheme. With Benfica’s away win odds in the 3.20–3.49 range and their attack rated at 100 in recent-form indices, backing Pavlidis in the anytime goalscorer market looks a sensible value play if priced in line with, or slightly shorter than, the general away win odds.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.