Portugal Begins Nations League Defence with Ronaldo Leading
Portugal open the defence of their UEFA Nations League crown on Thursday night, and the stage could hardly be more familiar. A home tie, a new coach, the same old expectations – and Cristiano Ronaldo still leading the line at 41.
The holders, and the competition’s most decorated side with titles in 2019 and 2025, kick off their League A, Group 4 campaign against a depleted Wales side that has clawed its way back into the top tier but arrives short-handed and short on momentum.
New era, same standards
This is Jorge Jesus’s first competitive match in charge of the national team after stepping in on July 10 following Roberto Martinez’s departure post-World Cup. He inherits a squad that had forgotten how to lose until Spain knocked them out in the last 16 of the 2026 World Cup with a 1-0 victory – Portugal’s first defeat since November 2025.
That setback has not dimmed their status in this competition. Portugal won the inaugural Nations League in 2018-19, edging Netherlands 1-0 in the final, then reclaimed the trophy in 2024-25 with a penalty shootout win over Spain. This tournament is theirs until someone proves otherwise.
Group 4 sets up a demanding but navigable path: Wales, Denmark and Norway, home and away, with a quarter-final place on offer. After this opener, Jesus takes his team to Norway before October trips to Denmark and a home rematch with the Norwegians. The schedule is tight, but the squad is deep.
Recent form underlines their consistency. Across all competitions, Portugal’s last six read: WDWDWL. Not flawless, but steady, and rarely second-best.
Ronaldo still central to the story
Any doubts over Ronaldo’s international future after the World Cup exit have been parked. Jesus named him in his first squad, and the plan is simple: he starts, he leads, and he hunts for goal number 147 in national colours.
The likely XI has a familiar spine. Diogo Costa should start in goal. Joao Cancelo and Nuno Mendes offer thrust from full-back, with Ruben Dias anchoring the defence alongside the highly rated Antonio Silva Veiga. In midfield, Vitinha, Joao Neves and Bruno Fernandes bring control, legs and creativity.
Ahead of them, Pedro Neto and Joao Felix are expected to work the flanks and half-spaces, feeding Ronaldo, who still shapes games by his presence alone. There is no sense of experimentation for its own sake here; Jesus appears set on continuity, at least for night one of his tenure.
Probable Portugal XI: Costa; Cancelo, Dias, Veiga, Mendes; Vitinha, J Neves; Neto, Fernandes, Felix; Ronaldo.
Wales back in the big time, but stretched
For Wales, this is a return to the elite after promotion from League B in 2024-25, a reward for steady work in the competition. Their Nations League record is respectable: 10 wins, five draws and seven defeats from 22 matches. But the context around this game is far from ideal.
They missed out on the 2026 World Cup, losing to Bosnia-Herzegovina in the playoff semi-finals in March, a blow that still lingers. Since then, Craig Bellamy’s side have drawn friendlies with Northern Ireland and Ghana before slipping to a 2-1 defeat against Romania. Their recent run across all competitions reads: WWLDDL – a patchwork of promise and frustration.
Now the challenge spikes. This trip to Portugal is followed by Denmark away on September 27, then Norway at home on October 1 and Denmark at home on October 4. A demanding stretch for a squad already stretched.
Injuries bite hard for Bellamy
Wales arrive in Lisbon hit by a triple injury setback. Harry Wilson, Nathan Broadhead and Karl Darlow have all withdrawn, forcing Bellamy into late changes. David Cornell of Leicester City, Huddersfield Town forward Joe Taylor and Reading midfielder Charlie Savage have been drafted in.
They join a list of absentees that already includes Joe Rodon, Dylan Lawlor, Rubin Colwill and Isaak Davies. For a nation that leans heavily on its core group, that is a lot of experience and potential stripped away before a ball is kicked.
The shape, though, should be familiar. Danny Ward is in line to start in goal. Neco Williams, Ben Cabango, Rhys Norrington-Davies and Jay Dasilva are set to form the back four, with Ethan Ampadu and Jordan James tasked with holding the midfield together.
Ahead of them, Bellamy is expected to lean on the pace and direct running of Daniel James, David Brooks and Brennan Johnson. James could even operate through the middle, using his speed to attack the space behind Portugal’s back line rather than hugging the touchline.
Probable Wales XI: Ward; N Williams, Cabango, Norrington-Davies, Dasilva; Ampadu, J James; Brooks, Thomas, Johnson; D James.
History and the weight of expectation
The head-to-head record offers little comfort to the visitors. Wales have faced Portugal four times and won only once, a friendly back in May 1951. The only competitive meeting came on the biggest stage either nation had shared: the Euro 2016 semi-final. Portugal won 2-0 that night, Ronaldo and Nani on the scoresheet, and went on to lift the trophy.
This time, the stakes are lower than a European Championship semi-final, but the pressure on the hosts is just as sharp. Portugal are not only defending champions; they are standard-setters in a tournament they have come to define.
Wales, promoted and patched-up, step into a test that will reveal quickly whether they can live at this level over a full campaign or whether survival becomes the story.
Prediction
With Wales missing key players and Portugal stacked with quality in every line, the balance tilts heavily towards the champions. The expectation is clear: a strong start, goals, and a statement from Jesus in his first real night in charge.
Scoreline forecast: Portugal 3-1 Wales.
If that proves accurate, the question will not be whether Portugal can escape this group – but who can stop them from marching towards yet another Nations League crown.
