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Alaves vs Mallorca: La Liga Clash Preview

Estadio Mendizorrotza hosts a high‑stakes La Liga clash on 25 April 2026, with Alaves fighting from 18th place on 33 points and in the relegation zone, while Mallorca arrive 14th with 35 points and a little more breathing space. The market slightly favours the hosts (home odds generally around 2.15–2.25), but the model-based prediction leans towards Mallorca avoiding defeat.

Form-wise, Alaves are inconsistent and fragile. Their league record shows 8 wins, 9 draws and 15 losses from 32 matches, with a negative goal difference of -12 (36 scored, 48 conceded). At home they are much more competitive: 5 wins, 6 draws, 4 losses from 15 games, scoring 19 and conceding 18. That profile matches a side that is awkward to beat in Vitoria-Gasteiz but still concedes regularly (1.2 goals against on average at home). Their last five overall, however, are chaotic: 12 goals scored and 12 conceded, attack index 100% and defence 0% in the prediction feed, underlining how open their games have recently become.

Mallorca, by contrast, are a classic home-strong, away-weak side. Overall they are 9‑8‑15 (40 for, 49 against), but away from Palma they have just 1 win, 3 draws and 11 defeats in 15 matches, with 13 scored and 29 conceded. That away record is poor, yet recent form is clearly better than Alaves: the prediction model gives them 67% form in the last five (10 scored, 6 conceded, attack 83%, defence 50%). The comparison section rates Mallorca higher on form (63% vs 38%) and defence (67% vs 33%), with Alaves slightly ahead in attacking contribution (55% vs 45%).

A key qualitative edge for Mallorca is the presence of Vedat Muriqi. With 21 league goals in 31 appearances and a 7.13 rating, he is one of the standout forwards in La Liga and a constant outlet even in difficult away fixtures. Alaves respond with Lucas Boyé (11 goals) and Toni Martínez (9 goals), giving them multiple scoring threats, which fits with their recent high-scoring pattern.

Head‑to‑Head Data

Head‑to‑head data in La Liga is tight and needs to be read carefully. Since 2019, excluding friendlies, they have met nine times in the league:

  • On 27 September 2025 in La Liga, at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Mallorca beat Alaves 1‑0.
  • On 2 March 2025 in La Liga, also at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, it finished Mallorca 1‑1 Alaves.
  • On 1 November 2024 in La Liga, at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Alaves beat Mallorca 1‑0.
  • On 24 February 2024 in La Liga, at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Alaves drew 1‑1 with Mallorca.
  • On 3 December 2023 in La Liga, at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Mallorca drew 0‑0 with Alaves.
  • On 19 April 2022 in La Liga, at Visit Mallorca Estadi, Mallorca beat Alaves 2‑1.
  • On 21 August 2021 in La Liga, at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Mallorca won 1‑0 away to Alaves.
  • On 15 February 2020 in La Liga, at Iberostar Estadi, Mallorca beat Alaves 1‑0.
  • On 29 September 2019 in La Liga, at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Alaves beat Mallorca 2‑0.

Across these nine league meetings, Mallorca have 5 wins, Alaves have 3, and there has been 1 draw. At Mendizorroza specifically in this sample, Alaves have 2 home wins (2‑0 in September 2019, 1‑0 in November 2024), Mallorca have 1 away win (1‑0 in August 2021), and there has been 1 draw (1‑1 in February 2024). This supports the idea of a balanced but low‑margin matchup, often decided by a single goal.

From a betting perspective, there is a clear tension between the model and the market. The prediction engine gives Alaves only a 10% win probability, with 45% each for draw and Mallorca, and explicitly advises “Double chance: draw or Mallorca”. Bookmakers, however, price Alaves as favourites around 2.10–2.24, with the draw around 3.00–3.20 and Mallorca out at 3.35–4.10. That creates potential value on the visitor‑side outcomes.

Given Mallorca’s better recent form, stronger defensive metrics, and historical edge in the head‑to‑head, while also respecting Alaves’ solid home record and relegation urgency, the most data‑aligned angle is to follow the model rather than the raw 1X2 prices.

Betting Verdict

Betting verdict (aligned with the JSON advice):

  • Main pick: Double chance – Draw or Mallorca.
  • Correct‑score lean: a tight game, with 0‑1, 1‑1 or 0‑0 all plausible within a low‑scoring profile.

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