Alaves vs Osasuna at Estadio Mendizorrotza in La Liga on 5 April 2026 is a mid-table vs relegation-battle clash. Across the entire campaign, Alaves sit 16th with 31 points (8-7-14, goal difference -11), while Osasuna are 10th with 37 points (10-7-12, goal difference -1). The market makes Alaves a slight favourite at home, but the official prediction model clearly leans towards Osasuna avoiding defeat.
The Data Deep-Dive: Form, Style and Matchup
Across the entire campaign, Alaves have been fragile defensively, conceding 41 goals in 29 matches (around 1.41 per match) and scoring 30 (1.03 per match). At home they are more competitive: 5 wins, 5 draws, 4 losses, 17 scored and 16 conceded. They rarely blow teams away – only 2 of their 29 league games have gone over 2.5 goals, and 27 have stayed under 2.5, a massive under trend.
Osasuna are clearly stronger overall: 34 goals scored and 35 conceded in 29 matches (1.17 for, 1.21 against per match). The big split is home vs away: at home they are strong (8-4-2, 25-16 goals), but away they are poor (2-3-10, 9-19 goals). That away weakness explains why the market is reluctant to install them as favourites despite the model giving them a 45% win probability (equal to the draw and miles ahead of Alaves’ 10%).
Recent form (last five, all competitions per model) slightly favours Osasuna. Alaves’ last-five form is rated 33% with 9 goals for and 11 against (1.8 scored, 2.2 conceded per match), suggesting open but chaotic games. Osasuna are at 47% form with 6 scored and 7 conceded (1.2 for, 1.4 against), combining better defensive metrics (61% defensive rating vs Alaves’ 39%) with slightly weaker attack (33% vs Alaves’ 60%).
The comparison model gives Osasuna a 53.5% overall edge vs 46.5% for Alaves, with Osasuna better in form and defence, and Alaves marginally ahead in attacking metrics. Poisson-based modelling interestingly leans 62% towards the home side, reflecting how low-scoring home games can skew probabilities towards the host, but the final advice still comes out in favour of “draw or Osasuna.”
Injury-wise, Alaves are missing F. Garces and D. Suarez through suspension, with L. Boye and C. Protesoni questionable. Osasuna are without I. Benito. Losing key Alaves pieces in a thin squad slightly weakens their already inconsistent structure, while Osasuna’s main attacking weapons, notably Ante Budimir (14 league goals), are available.
H2H Analysis: The Atomic Five (Most Recent Five)
Looking at the latest five meetings chronologically:
- 20 December 2025 (La Liga, at El Sadar): Osasuna 3-0 Alaves – clear Osasuna win.
- 24 May 2025 (La Liga, at Mendizorrotza): Alaves 1-1 Osasuna – draw.
- 8 December 2024 (La Liga, at El Sadar): Osasuna 2-2 Alaves – draw.
- 10 August 2024 (Club Friendly, at Tajonar): Osasuna 1-2 Alaves – Alaves win.
- 4 March 2024 (La Liga, at El Sadar): Osasuna 1-0 Alaves – Osasuna win.
Across these five, Osasuna have 2 wins, Alaves 1, and 2 draws. Goals: Osasuna 7, Alaves 5. Osasuna edge both results and goals, with Alaves’ only win coming in a friendly, while competitive fixtures tilt more clearly to Osasuna.
Extending further back (still respecting result integrity), Osasuna have also won league trips to Mendizorrotza 2-0 in both 2023 and 2021, underlining that they are comfortable in this matchup even away from home.
Market vs Model: Where Is the Value?
The official prediction gives probabilities of 10% home, 45% draw, 45% away, with the explicit advice: “Double chance: draw or Osasuna.” That implies a 90% chance that Alaves do not win.
Now compare that to the odds:
- Home: around 2.38–2.53
- Draw: around 2.89–3.20
- Away: around 2.71–3.12
- Implied probabilities from top prices (roughly, before margin):
- Home at 2.53 → about 39.5%
- Draw at 3.20 → about 31.3%
- Away at 3.12 → about 32.1%
The market is pricing Alaves around 39–41% to win, while the model only gives them 10%. Even allowing for model uncertainty, that is a huge gap. Conversely, “Osasuna or Draw” (X2) is typically priced around 1.50–1.60 in such structures (implied 62–67%), yet the model suggests 90%.
Given the under-heavy profiles of both teams (Alaves 27/29 under 2.5; Osasuna 26/29 under 2.5), a low-scoring, tight contest is likely, which also increases draw probability and favours the side with better defensive metrics – Osasuna.
The Verdict: Best Bets and Predicted Outcome
Following the official advice and the probability/odds contrast:
- Main value bet: Double chance – Draw or Osasuna (X2). Anything around 1.50–1.60 would look significantly undervalued relative to a modelled 90% chance.
- Secondary lean: Draw (around 3.10–3.20). With a 45% model probability vs roughly 31–32% implied by the odds, the stalemate is also a strong value angle, especially given Osasuna’s poor away attack and Alaves’ low-scoring home pattern.
- Correct-score lean: 0-0 or 1-1, with Osasuna slightly more likely to nick it 0-1 than Alaves to win.
Overall prediction: Alaves struggle to break down a more solid Osasuna. The most data-aligned call is that the hosts fail to win, making “Draw or Osasuna” the standout value position.
