Aston Villa's New Forward Strategy: Nicolas Jackson Joins
Aston Villa have ripped up their forward line and started again.
Nicolas Jackson is in. Ollie Watkins is on his way out. And Unai Emery is not just changing faces – he is changing the job description of his number nine.
A record signing, a defining exit
Villa have completed the signing of Jackson in a deal worth up to £65m, a fee that makes the 25-year-old their new record signing and pushes Johan Manzambi down that particular list.
At the same time, Watkins looks set to join Saudi Pro League side Al-Hilal, bringing a six-year spell at Villa to a close. In that time he has scored 108 goals in 278 games and become one of the central figures in the club’s surge under Emery.
This is not a tweak. It is a reset.
The upheaval runs through the squad. Morgan Rogers, Ezri Konsa, Youri Tielemans and Lucas Digne have already gone. New faces – Jackson, Manzambi, Joao Gomes, Zion Suzuki, Matteo Ruggeri – are being dropped into a dressing room that barely resembles the one that finished last season.
The disruption showed. On the opening weekend, Villa were hammered 4-0 at Brighton. With Watkins unavailable and both Tammy Abraham and 17-year-old Brian Madjo injured, Emery had no recognised centre-forward. Emiliano Buendia, a creator by trade, ended up leading the line.
Jackson’s arrival, from Chelsea, instantly changes that picture. Emery now has a specialist striker again. But he has not simply bought “the next Watkins”.
Different number nine, different Villa
Strip it back to numbers, and Jackson’s profile jumps out as something else entirely.
Last season at Bayern Munich, the Senegal forward produced 11 goals and three assists in 1,320 minutes across all competitions. That works out at 1.0 goal involvement per 90 minutes. Watkins, across a far heavier workload at Villa, delivered 21 goals and five assists in 3,837 minutes – 0.6 per 90.
Jackson fired more often too. He averaged 3.8 shots per 90, with 2.2 on target. Watkins sat at 2.6 shots and 1.2 on target. The expected-goals numbers lean the same way: 0.7 xG per 90 for Jackson against 0.5 for Watkins. Touches in the opposition box? 8.5 per 90 for Jackson, 5.6 for Watkins.
This is a striker who lives inside the penalty area and constantly threatens the goal. That is not new. Across players with at least 5,000 Premier League minutes since January 2020, only Erling Haaland has posted a higher non-penalty xG per 90 than Jackson’s 0.55.
Getting into scoring positions is not his issue. Putting chances away has been the talking point.
At Chelsea, the finishing numbers drew criticism. In 2023-24 he scored 14 league goals from 18.7 xG, then followed up with 10 from 12.3 xG the next campaign. In England so far, he has converted 18 of 61 big chances. Watkins, for comparison, has scored 24 of 73 big chances since joining Villa in 2020 – he has missed plenty too.
Look at last season alone and the gap between them almost disappears. Jackson converted 19.6% of his shots and 40.9% of his big chances. Watkins hit 18.9% and 43.2%. The difference is marginal.
The key caveat sits in the minutes. Watkins started 43 matches and played almost three times as long. Jackson started only 15 of his 34 appearances, and Opta’s data team point out that a substitute-heavy sample can inflate per-90 metrics. The question is obvious: can Jackson keep those numbers up over a full, gruelling season?
What happens when Villa don’t have the ball?
Emery’s teams are defined by what they do out of possession as much as what they create with it, and here Jackson again offers a different shade of striker.
He averaged 34 high pressures per 90, slightly above Watkins’ 31.4. The real separation comes when the ball is actually won back. Jackson recovered possession 2.7 times per 90, compared with Watkins’ 1.8, and 0.9 times per 90 in the final third to Watkins’ 0.6.
Among strikers in Opta’s sample, Jackson sat in the 88th percentile for possession won in the attacking third. Watkins was in the 43rd. That is a big tactical lever for a coach like Emery.
The runs in behind are almost identical – 13 per 90 for Jackson, 12.7 for Watkins – though the England forward made slightly more that ended inside the box. Aerially, Watkins still offers more, winning 1.2 aerial duels per 90 to Jackson’s 0.7, and he has been the more direct ball-carrier towards goal.
So no, Jackson is not a carbon copy. Villa will lose some of Watkins’ aerial presence and his particular brand of relentless, straight-line power. What they gain is a more ball-dominant, high-volume shooter who presses aggressively and links more often.
Emery’s bet on potential
Watkins has given Villa reliability, running power and goals through one of the club’s most successful modern stretches. He is 30 now, proven, and a known quantity.
Jackson arrives five years younger, with a different profile and a body of underlying numbers that hint at a higher ceiling if the finishing sharpens. He gets more touches, carries the ball more often, creates more chances for others and, in limited minutes last season, produced shots and high-quality chances at a rate that will tempt any analytically minded club.
The doubts are clear. Can those per-90 figures survive when he is starting 40-plus games? Will the finishing that frustrated Chelsea supporters ever fully catch up with the quality of his movement?
Emery knows what he is buying. He has worked with Jackson before and understands the traits he wants to refine. Villa are not rolling the dice on a mystery forward; they are trading a 30-year-old with a defined level for a 25-year-old whose metrics suggest there is still room to climb.
If Watkins does complete his move to Al-Hilal and Jackson takes the shirt, the change will be bigger than a name on the teamsheet.
Aston Villa will be asking their centre-forward to play the role of a different kind of striker – and that shift could end up defining where Emery’s project goes next.
