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Atalanta vs Venezia Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Atalanta welcome Venezia to New Balance Arena in Bergamo on 12 October 2026 for a Serie A clash that already feels significant near the bottom half of the table. The hosts sit 11th with 6 points from their first five matches, while newly promoted Venezia are rooted to the bottom in 20th with no points and the league’s worst goal difference.

For Atalanta, this is an opportunity to stabilise after a mixed start. Two straight wins have repaired some of the damage from three early defeats, and home form (two wins from three) has been their main asset. Venezia, by contrast, arrive in Bergamo under real pressure: five losses from five, 13 goals conceded and no clean sheets. Any hopes of survival hinge on starting to pick up results in fixtures like this, even if the odds and recent history are stacked against them.

From a betting perspective, Atalanta vs Venezia is a classic meeting of a mid-table side trending upwards against a struggling defence. Punters looking for Atalanta vs Venezia predictions, Atalanta vs Venezia odds and Serie A betting tips will see a strong home favourite, but also a market that leaves room for angles on goals and cards given both teams’ profiles.

Atalanta vs Venezia Key Stats

  • Atalanta are 11th in Serie A with 6 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 3 defeats, 5 goals scored, 7 conceded).
  • The last five meetings in all competitions have seen Atalanta unbeaten against Venezia, including a 0-0 draw in Bergamo on 1 March 2025 and a 2-0 away win in Serie A on 20 October 2024.
  • In 2026 Serie A statistics, Atalanta average 1.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match, while Venezia average 0.8 scored and 2.6 conceded across their first 5 games.

Atalanta vs Venezia — Tale of the Tape

  • Position: 11 vs 20
  • Points: 6 vs 0
  • Goals For: 5 vs 4
  • Goals Against: 7 vs 13
  • Clean Sheets: Atalanta 1, Venezia 0 (2026 Serie A statistics, 5 matches each)

Standings underline the gulf between the sides. Atalanta’s 6 points from 5 games have come with a modest goal return but a broadly competitive profile: they have scored 5 and conceded 7, with a goal difference of -2. Their home record is solid, with 2 wins and 1 defeat at New Balance Arena, 4 goals scored and 3 conceded.

Venezia, meanwhile, are in deep trouble at this early stage. Five defeats from five, 4 goals scored and 13 conceded leave them with a goal difference of -9 and bottom place. They have lost all three home games (2-8 on aggregate) and both away matches (2-5), suggesting their defensive issues travel with them. Atalanta’s single clean sheet versus Venezia’s complete absence of shutouts in 2026 further tilts the balance towards the hosts.

Atalanta vs Venezia Key Matchups

Gianluca Gaetano vs Gianluca Busio

Without top-scorer data, creative influence becomes crucial. For Atalanta, Gianluca Gaetano stands out from disciplinary and contribution stats: in 4 appearances (3 starts, 288 minutes) he has provided 1 assist, completed 162 passes at 90% accuracy and contributed 6 tackles and 6 interceptions. Despite receiving 1 red card, his all-round midfield profile suggests he is central to Atalanta’s build-up and pressing.

Venezia’s key creative figure is Gianluca Busio. In 4 appearances (all starts, 314 minutes), he has delivered 2 assists, taken 3 shots, made 208 passes with 92% accuracy and 5 key passes, alongside 10 tackles and 20 duels won from 32. Busio is clearly Venezia’s main conduit between midfield and attack, and his ability to beat the press and find forward runners will be vital against an Atalanta side that likes to compress space.

J. Schingtienne vs Kike Pérez

At the back for Venezia, Joël Marcel Schingtienne has been heavily involved. Across 5 full matches (450 minutes), he has made 273 passes (87% accuracy), 11 tackles, 3 interceptions and 1 block. He has also picked up 3 yellow cards, highlighting both his defensive workload and a tendency to be exposed. Up against Atalanta’s attackers, his discipline and timing will be tested again.

Further ahead, Kike Pérez offers work-rate and progression from midfield. In 5 appearances (420 minutes), he has produced 11 key passes from 278 total passes (83% accuracy), 12 tackles, 5 interceptions and 52 duels with 23 won. His ability to carry the ball and link play could be crucial in helping Venezia escape pressure and create the few chances they are likely to get in Bergamo.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

Recent head-to-head history is strongly in Atalanta’s favour, both in Serie A and cup competition. Venezia have struggled to contain Atalanta’s attack and rarely found a way through themselves.

  • 1 March 2025: Atalanta 0-0 Venezia (Serie A)
  • 20 October 2024: Venezia 0-2 Atalanta (Serie A)
  • 23 April 2022: Venezia 1-3 Atalanta (Serie A)
  • 12 January 2022: Atalanta 2-0 Venezia (Coppa Italia)
  • 30 November 2021: Atalanta 4-0 Venezia (Serie A)

Atalanta vs Venezia Prediction

Stats suggest a match where Atalanta control territory and possession against a Venezia side that has been porous defensively and slow to start games. Atalanta’s recent form in Serie A (two wins following three defeats) is improving, and their home record plus one clean sheet from five compares favourably with Venezia’s zero clean sheets and 2.6 goals conceded per match.

The prediction model gives Atalanta and the draw each a 45% chance, with Venezia at just 10%. That aligns with the bookmakers making Atalanta a strong favourite but leaving some scope for a low-scoring or scrappy contest, as seen in the 0-0 in March 2025. Atalanta average only 1.0 goals scored per game so far, while Venezia do at least find the net in the later stages of matches, with a significant share of their goals coming after the 60th minute. A controlled home win with a narrow margin looks the most likely scenario.

Predicted Score: Atalanta 2-0 Venezia

Atalanta Recent Form

In Serie A standings, Atalanta’s recent form reads LLLWW, reflecting a poor opening followed by a clear upturn. Across their 5 league matches they have won 2 and lost 3, scoring 5 and conceding 7. At home they have been much more reliable, with 2 wins from 3 and only 3 goals conceded. Their statistics also show 1 clean sheet and only 1 match in which they failed to score, underlining a generally stable base despite early setbacks.

Venezia Recent Form

Venezia’s form is stark: LLLLL. They have lost all 5 Serie A matches in 2026, scoring 4 and conceding 13. Away from home they have been slightly more competitive going forward (2 goals in 2 away games) but still concede heavily, with 5 goals shipped on their travels. They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches and have yet to keep a clean sheet, pointing to structural issues at both ends of the pitch.

Atalanta Possible Starting Lineup

GK: M. Carnesecchi; Defenders: S. Kolašinac, O. Kossounou, G. Scalvini, D. Zappacosta; Midfielders: Éderson, F. Kessié, G. Gaetano, C. De Ketelaere, Mario Pasalic; Forwards: G. Scamacca, G. Raspadori, N. Krstović.

Atalanta have the depth to rotate but the squad profile and formation data (4-3-3 used in all 5 league matches) suggest a back four with aggressive full-backs, a physically strong midfield and multiple attacking options. Key creative roles should fall to players like Gaetano and De Ketelaere, while Scamacca and Raspadori offer goal threat. The absence of some players (see team news) may slightly reduce defensive options, but overall Atalanta still look well-balanced.

Venezia Possible Starting Lineup

GK: F. Stanković; Defenders: J. Schingtienne, A. Bella-Kotchap, Juan Jesus; Wing-backs: Thierry Correia, R. Haps; Midfielders: G. Busio, Kike Pérez, S. Sohm; Forwards: J. Yeboah, L. Lauberbach.

Venezia have consistently lined up in a 3-5-2 across their 5 league games, leaning on a three-man back line and busy central midfield. Busio and Kike Pérez are likely to be central to ball progression and chance creation, while wing-backs such as Correia and Haps provide width. The challenge will be maintaining defensive solidity with several midfield and defensive absentees, and avoiding the late collapses that have characterised their season so far.

Atalanta Team News

Atalanta have a couple of notable absentees. K. Sulemana is ruled out with a Jumpers Knee problem, while defender I. Hien misses out due to a Muscle Bruise. Both are listed as missing for this fixture, slightly reducing attacking depth and defensive rotation options but not undermining the core of the starting XI.

Venezia Team News

Venezia’s absentee list is longer and more concerning. Midfielder B. Franjić (Wound), forward A. Adorante (Inguinal Hernia), midfielder T. Bašić (Foot Injury) and defender M. Šverko (Hip Injury) are all ruled out. That combination removes options in defence, midfield and attack, stretching a squad already struggling to cope with Serie A intensity.

Injuries & Suspensions

Atalanta:

  • K. Sulemana — Jumpers Knee
  • I. Hien — Muscle Bruise

Venezia:

  • B. Franjić — Wound
  • A. Adorante — Inguinal Hernia
  • T. Bašić — Foot Injury
  • M. Šverko — Hip Injury

Betting Tips: Atalanta vs Venezia

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

  • Result Tip: Back Atalanta to win. The prediction model gives Atalanta a 45% chance of victory and Venezia only 10%, with Atalanta dominant in H2H and clearly stronger in form and defensive metrics. Bookmakers price the home win between 1.50 and 1.66, implying roughly a 60.2% to 66.7% chance of Atalanta taking all three points. That aligns with the statistical edge for the hosts.
  • Goals Tip: Under 3.5 total goals appeals. Atalanta’s matches have all stayed under 3.5 so far (5 games, none over 2.5), and Venezia, while leaky, average only 0.8 goals scored per match. The recent 0-0 between these sides in March 2025 also points towards the possibility of a controlled, lower-scoring home win such as 2-0.
  • Value Tip: Consider a cards-focused angle involving Venezia’s midfield and defence. J. Schingtienne has collected 3 yellow cards in 5 games, and Kike Pérez has 2 yellows from 5 appearances, reflecting the defensive pressure Venezia are under. In a match where they are likely to be chasing Atalanta’s movement, backing Venezia to receive more cards than Atalanta, or a Venezia player in the booking markets, could offer value at mid-range odds depending on your bookmaker’s prices.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.

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