Burnley vs Wolves: Final Day Premier League Clash Preview

Burnley and Wolves meet at Turf Moor on 24 May 2026 in a final‑day Premier League fixture between the bottom two, with only pride and a marginal prize‑money swing at stake. Burnley come in 19th with 21 points from 37 matches (4‑9‑24, 37‑74 goal difference), while Wolves are 20th with 19 points (3‑10‑24, 26‑67). Both are already relegated, but the market and the model see a very balanced contest.

Over the last five matches, the prediction data rates Burnley’s form at 7% versus Wolves at 13%, underlining that both are in poor shape but Wolves slightly less so. Burnley have scored 4 and conceded 11 across those five (0.8 for, 2.2 against on average), while Wolves have scored 2 and conceded 9 (0.4 for, 1.8 against). Burnley’s attack has been more productive recently, but their defence has been even more fragile.

Season Statistics

Season‑long, Burnley’s league numbers show 37 goals for and 74 against in 37 matches. At Turf Moor they have 2 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses from 18 home games, scoring 17 and conceding 28. Wolves’ overall league return is 26 scored and 67 conceded; away from home they are winless in 18 attempts, with 0 wins, 5 draws and 13 losses, scoring only 7 and conceding 33. That away record is a key factor: Wolves struggle badly to create and convert chances on the road.

Prediction Metrics

The prediction engine’s comparison metrics still shade the overall edge to Wolves: total comparison 45.8% Burnley vs 54.2% Wolves. Form index is 33% Burnley vs 67% Wolves, while attack index favours Burnley (67% vs 33%) and defence is slightly better on the Wolves side (55% vs 45%). The Poisson‑based distribution curiously leans 70% to Burnley and 30% to Wolves, reflecting that if one side is to “click” offensively at home, it is more likely to be Burnley, but the broader form and defensive data keep Wolves competitive in the model.

Head-to-Head

Head‑to‑head data, excluding club friendlies, shows a genuinely mixed picture that supports a cautious approach. On 26 October 2025 in the Premier League at Molineux Stadium, Burnley won 3‑2 away after a 2‑2 first half. On 28 August 2024 in the League Cup 2nd Round, also at Molineux Stadium, Wolves beat Burnley 2‑0. On 2 April 2024 at Turf Moor in the Premier League, the sides drew 1‑1. On 5 December 2023 at Molineux Stadium in the Premier League, Wolves won 1‑0. Going further back, on 24 April 2022 at Turf Moor, Burnley won 1‑0 in the Premier League; on 1 December 2021 at Molineux Stadium they drew 0‑0; on 25 April 2021 at Molineux Stadium Burnley won 4‑0; and on 21 December 2020 at Turf Moor Burnley beat Wolves 2‑1. The friendly on 9 July 2022 at Sir Jack Hayward Training Ground (3‑0 to Wolves) must be treated separately and not mixed with competitive trends. Overall, the pattern is that both clubs have taken turns having the upper hand, with no clear long‑term dominance in league play.

Official Prediction

The official prediction model gives Wolves a 45% win probability, the draw 45%, and Burnley only 10%, and explicitly recommends: “Double chance: draw or Wolves.” That is strongly at odds with the raw league table and Wolves’ away record, but it is the governing signal for this analysis.

The market is broadly aligned with a near‑coin‑flip on the 1X2. Across major bookmakers, home odds cluster roughly between 2.40 and 2.56, the draw between 3.18 and 3.66, and the away win between 2.60 and 2.84. Implied probabilities, before margin, are in the region of low‑40s% for each side and around high‑20s% for the draw, which sits reasonably close to the model’s 45/45 split between Wolves and the draw versus just 10% for Burnley.

Given the official advice, the safest value‑aligned angle is to back Wolves on the double chance market (X2). It captures both the model’s expectation that Burnley are unlikely winners and Wolves’ slight statistical edge despite their poor away record. With both attacks weak and both defences leaky, a low‑scoring stalemate or narrow away success fits best.

Prediction: Burnley 0–1 Wolves, with the recommended bet being Double Chance – Draw or Wolves.