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Everton vs Liverpool: Premier League Derby Preview

Everton host Liverpool at Hill Dickinson Stadium in this Premier League Round 33 derby with both sides still in the European mix: Everton sit 8th on 47 points, Liverpool 5th on 52 and targeting Champions League qualification.

Form-wise, the prediction model leans slightly towards Everton despite Liverpool’s higher league position. Over the last five matches, Everton’s last‑five index is 67% (10 goals scored, 6 conceded, 2.0 for and 1.2 against per game), compared with Liverpool’s 47% (also 10 scored but 7 conceded, 2.0 for and 1.4 against per game). The global comparison section gives Everton the edge in current form at 59% versus 41% for Liverpool, and a small defensive advantage (54% vs 46%), while attack is rated level at 50–50.

Across the full league campaign, Liverpool still have the stronger numbers: 15 wins from 32 (52 points, goal difference +10) against Everton’s 13 wins (47 points, goal difference +2). Liverpool average 1.6 goals scored per match (52 in 32) versus Everton’s 1.2 (39 in 32). Defensively they are similar: Everton concede 1.2 per game (37 in 32), Liverpool 1.3 (42 in 32), though Liverpool’s away defence is weaker at 1.6 conceded per away match (25 in 16). Everton at home have been solid if unspectacular: 6 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, 21 scored and 19 conceded (1.3 for, 1.2 against per home game).

The goal‑timing profiles also support a tight contest. Everton score heavily late (31.58% of their goals from 76–90 minutes) and concede most in the same period (23.68%), suggesting volatile finishes. Liverpool are similar but more extreme: 30.00% of their goals come from 76–90 minutes, yet 38.64% of goals conceded also arrive in that window. That pattern points to a strong in‑play angle on late goals, but the model’s main goals projection is cautious: both teams are flagged under 2.5 goals.

Head‑to‑Head Record

Head‑to‑head in the Premier League is dominated by Liverpool overall, but recent meetings show Everton can compete, especially at home. The prediction JSON lists the last 10 league derbies:

  • On 20 February 2021 at Anfield (Premier League, 2020), Everton won 2‑0 away.
  • On 1 December 2021 at Goodison Park (Premier League, 2021), Liverpool won 4‑1.
  • On 24 April 2022 at Anfield (Premier League, 2021), Liverpool won 2‑0.
  • On 3 September 2022 at Goodison Park (Premier League, 2022), it finished 0‑0.
  • On 13 February 2023 at Anfield (Premier League, 2022), Liverpool won 2‑0.
  • On 21 October 2023 at Anfield (Premier League, 2023), Liverpool won 2‑0.
  • On 24 April 2024 at Goodison Park (Premier League, 2023), Everton won 2‑0.
  • On 12 February 2025 at Goodison Park (Premier League, 2024), the match ended 2‑2.
  • On 2 April 2025 at Anfield (Premier League, 2024), Liverpool won 1‑0.
  • On 20 September 2025 at Anfield (Premier League, 2025), Liverpool won 2‑1.

Excluding friendlies, that gives Liverpool 7 wins, Everton 2, and 1 draw in the last 10 league derbies. However, the three most recent Goodison Park clashes in the Premier League (April 2024, February 2025, plus the 0‑0 in September 2022) show Everton unbeaten at home in their last three league derbies: 2‑0 win, 2‑2 draw, 0‑0 draw. That aligns with the prediction engine’s “Win or draw” comment for Everton and a double‑chance recommendation.

The model’s percentage probabilities are: 35% Everton, 35% draw, 30% Liverpool. The comparison “total” metric still rates Liverpool slightly higher overall (52.7% vs 47.3%), but not enough to justify the bookmakers’ strong away‑favourite pricing.

Market odds for the 1X2 are roughly 3.10–3.35 on Everton, 3.40–3.75 on the draw, and 2.09–2.26 on Liverpool. Converting the model’s probabilities to fair odds suggests value lies on the home side not losing. With 70% implied chance for Everton or draw from the prediction (35% + 35%) versus a market that prices Liverpool as clear favourites, the data‑driven angle is to follow the official advice.

Betting verdict: The recommended play, fully aligned with the JSON advice, is Double chance: Everton or draw (1X). The model also flags both teams under 2.5 goals, supporting an expectation of a tight, tactical derby where Everton’s current form and recent Goodison resilience can neutralise Liverpool’s superior season‑long attack.

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