Everton W vs Leicester City WFC Preview: FA WSL Round 22

Everton W host Leicester City WFC at Goodison Park in FA WSL regular round 22, with both sides closing a difficult campaign but under very different pressures. Everton arrive 8th with 20 points from 21 matches (6-2-13, 24-37), effectively safe but keen to improve a poor home record. Leicester are 12th on 9 points (2-3-16, 11-51) and marked for relegation playoffs, carrying by far the league’s worst goal difference and defensive numbers.

Form-wise, the underlying data and the prediction model are strongly tilted towards Everton avoiding defeat rather than being a dominant favourite. Everton’s league form string is mixed, but the predictive engine’s last-five index shows 40% form, 50% attacking efficiency and 29% defensive efficiency, with 7 goals scored and 10 conceded across those five. That translates to a side that creates enough to score regularly (1.4 goals per game in that window) but remains fragile at the back.

Leicester, by contrast, are in a deep slump. Their last-five form is rated at 0%, with attacking output at 21% and defensive at 0%, conceding 18 goals (3.6 per game) while scoring only 3 (0.6 per game). Over the full league campaign, they have 11 goals for and 51 against in 21 matches, averaging just 0.5 scored and 2.4 conceded. Away from home they are particularly weak: 0 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses, with 3 goals scored and 31 conceded. They have also failed to score in 10 of 21 league fixtures overall.

Everton’s home numbers are not impressive (2-0-8, 10-22), but they still average 1.0 goal scored at Goodison and the model’s comparison panel clearly favours them: form 100% vs 0%, attack 70% vs 30%, defence 64% vs 36%, and Poisson-based distribution 81% home vs 19% away. The overall comparison index gives Everton 56.8% vs Leicester 43.2%, and the outright prediction probabilities are 45% home win, 45% draw, 10% away win.

The goals projection in the prediction block is conservative: “home -2.5, away -1.5” implies Everton are expected to stay under three goals and Leicester under two, pointing towards a relatively low-to-medium scoring match, largely one-sided in territorial and chance creation terms but with Everton’s own defensive issues keeping a big scoreline less likely.

Head-to-Head Data

On 2025-10-05 in the FA WSL at King Power Stadium, Leicester City WFC and Everton W drew 1-1. Earlier in the same calendar year, on 2025-02-02 in the FA WSL at Walton Hall Park, Everton W beat Leicester 4-1. On 2024-10-20, again in the FA WSL at King Power Stadium, Leicester won 1-0. On 2024-01-28 in the FA WSL at Walton Hall Park, Leicester took a 1-0 away win. In cup competition, on 2024-01-24 in the WSL Cup group stage at Pirelli Stadium, Leicester beat Everton 5-1. Further back, on 2023-10-08 in the FA WSL at King Power Stadium, Leicester won 1-0; on 2023-03-12 in the FA WSL at King Power Stadium, the sides drew 0-0; on 2022-09-29 in the FA WSL at Walton Hall Park, Everton won 1-0; on 2022-03-12 in the FA WSL at Walton Hall Park, Everton won 3-2; and on 2021-11-21 in the FA WSL at Pirelli Stadium, Everton won 1-0. Those results show that Leicester have been capable of frustrating or even beating Everton, especially in tight, low-scoring encounters, but that pattern predates Leicester’s current defensive collapse.

From a betting perspective, the official advice is clear: “Double chance: Everton W or draw”, aligned with the model’s “Win or draw” comment for the home side. With the away win probability down at 10%, Leicester’s catastrophic away defence (31 conceded in 10) and Everton’s stronger recent trend, backing Everton in the double-chance market is the data-backed core position. For those seeking additional angles, the low attacking averages for Leicester and the projection of under 2.5 home and under 1.5 away goals support a cautious stance on goal-heavy markets, leaning towards Everton to edge a controlled match rather than a high-scoring shootout.

Prediction: Everton W to avoid defeat, with the recommended betting angle being Double chance: Everton W or draw.