Liverpool's Champions League Race: Late Derby Drama Impacts Top Five
Liverpool’s late derby drama has done more than settle a city-wide argument. It has tilted the Champions League race firmly in Arne Slot’s favour.
Virgil van Dijk’s stoppage-time header at the Hill Dickinson Stadium didn’t just rip the points away from Everton. It tightened Liverpool’s grip on fifth place, the final spot that will carry a Premier League side back into Europe’s elite competition next season. With five games left, the table suddenly looks very different from the anxious picture of a few weeks ago.
But this race isn’t over. Not yet.
United closing in
Manchester United sit in third on 58 points, ahead of Aston Villa only on goal difference but with a clear path to rubber-stamp their return to the Champions League.
Their run-in:
- Brentford (A) – April 27
- Liverpool (H) – May 3
- Sunderland (A) – May 9
- Nottingham Forest (H) – May 17
- Brighton (A) – May 24
Michael Carrick’s side need just six more points to be certain of a top-five finish. That target could be hit as early as the Liverpool game at Old Trafford. You can imagine the backdrop: United chasing confirmation, Liverpool desperate to delay the party and keep their own push on track.
United’s form and goal difference suggest it’s a matter of when, not if. The real intrigue is whether they can climb any higher before the season closes.
Villa juggling two fronts
Aston Villa mirror United on 58 points, but their calendar is heavier and more complicated.
Their league fixtures:
- Fulham (A) – April 25
- Tottenham (H) – May 3
- Burnley (A) – May 10
- Liverpool (H) – May 17
- Man City (A) – May 24
Unai Emery still has Europe to navigate, and Villa even carry the safety net of qualifying for the Champions League by winning the Europa League. They may not need it. Six points from Fulham, Tottenham, Burnley and beyond would be enough to lock in a top-five finish.
That European distraction could work in Liverpool’s favour. The Reds travel to Villa Park in the penultimate game. If Villa have already secured their place or are preparing for a European final, Emery might rotate. A small detail now, potentially huge when mid-May rolls around.
Liverpool back in control
Liverpool’s position looked fragile not long ago. Now, after back-to-back league wins over Fulham and Everton, Slot has breathing space.
Their remaining schedule:
- Crystal Palace (H) – April 25
- Manchester United (A) – May 3
- Chelsea (H) – May 9
- Aston Villa (A) – May 17
- Brentford (H) – May 24
The maths is simple: nine more points guarantees a top-five finish. Given one of those games is against Chelsea, a direct rival, they might not even need the full nine.
The challenge is obvious. United away. Chelsea at Anfield. Villa away. Three fixtures that could define Slot’s first season and set the tone for what comes next. The late winner in the derby has changed the mood, but the margin for error remains thin.
Chelsea fading fast
Chelsea, in sixth on 48 points, are watching the Champions League train pull away.
Their run-in:
- Brighton (A) – April 21
- Nottingham Forest (H) – May 4
- Liverpool (A) – May 9
- Tottenham (H) – May 17
- Sunderland (A) – May 24
Liam Rosenior’s team have stalled badly in front of goal and look short of conviction. With only three points separating them from Fulham in 12th, the danger is no longer just missing the Champions League. Europe of any kind is under threat.
Their best hope is to reel in Liverpool. That makes the trip to Anfield on May 9 potentially explosive, but only if Chelsea can stay close enough in the next couple of weeks. Right now, that feels a stretch.
The Merseyside derby may have swung the momentum, but this run-in is loaded with traps. Liverpool have the edge, United and Villa are almost there, and Chelsea are clinging on. Five games. One last push. Who blinks first?
