Liverpool’s Defence Under Scrutiny as Atlético Madrid Returns to Anfield
Anfield under the lights. Liverpool still searching for themselves. Atlético Madrid arriving with old scars to reopen and a few new weapons to test a fragile back line.
Andoni Iraola’s Liverpool have not convinced without the ball. Four goals conceded in their first two Premier League games, both ending in draws, told that story clearly enough. The clean sheet at Ipswich helped, but this defence remains a moving target rather than a finished structure.
Ronald Araújo has been shunted to right-back with Conor Bradley and Giovanni Leoni sidelined. The back four is learning on the job, and that uncertainty is exactly the sort of weakness Diego Simeone’s side usually circle like sharks.
Atlético know this ground. They won 3-2 at Anfield in 2019/20 and came from 2-0 down here last season. They don’t scare easily and they don’t need to dominate to damage you. The market currently gives them roughly a 46.5% implied chance of avoiding defeat. Given Liverpool’s teething problems and Atlético’s knack for turning these nights into street fights, that feels light.
**Bet 1: Draw or Atlético (Double Chance) @ 23/20 with Sky Bet**
Isak sharp again – and this time the numbers back him
At the other end, one story has cut through Liverpool’s early-season noise: Alexander Isak looks like a different forward.
Three goals in three Premier League games. Two of them came inside nine minutes at Ipswich last Friday, with Cody Gakpo laying on all three of his strikes so far this season. The partnership is already humming.
Compare that to his debut campaign: four goals in 22 league appearances. This version of Isak is leaner, quicker, more decisive. He is attacking space earlier, finishing with less fuss and generally carrying himself like a striker who expects to score rather than hopes to.
Atlético’s defence is hardly rock solid right now. They shipped three at Athletic Bilbao in a 3-0 defeat and are still bedding in a reshaped back line. The one red flag on Isak’s card is his Champions League record: one goal in 13 appearances. That’s poor.
Even so, an implied 47.6% chance for him to score here, based on the 11/10 price, underestimates his current form and Liverpool’s growing reliance on his finishing.
**Bet 2: Alexander Isak anytime goalscorer @ 11/10 with Sky Bet**
Simeone’s plan: slow the game, squeeze the spaces
For all Liverpool’s attacking names, the numbers behind them are stark. They sit 19th in the Premier League for big chances created – just four in three games. Brighton, by contrast, have carved out 15 in the same span.
That is not the output expected from a front line built around Florian Wirtz, Gakpo and Isak. The patterns are not quite there yet, and Iraola’s structure in possession is still in its infancy.
This is where Simeone will smell opportunity. Pablo Barrios and Morten Hjulmand are set to patrol the areas Wirtz loves to drift into, closing the angles and forcing Liverpool wide. Behind them, Jan Oblak remains the calm, familiar figure who so often turns these nights into frustration for opponents.
Atlético have scored seven in their last four league matches, so they are not coming just to survive. Julian Alvarez is expected to return to the starting XI, adding a sharper edge to their counter-attacks, while the visitors know they can hurt Liverpool in transition.
Yet the rhythm of this fixture points towards a tight contest. Simeone will happily drag the tempo down, narrow the pitch, and lean into every pause in play. With the under 2.5 goals line carrying an implied probability of 42.2%, there is value in backing a more cagey, tactical battle than the names on the teamsheet might suggest.
**Bet 3: Under 2.5 goals @ 11/8 with Sky Bet**
Form, lineups and the edge of jeopardy
Liverpool arrive with five points from three league games. The early wobble at the back – two goals conceded in each of the first two matches – has been tempered slightly by that 2-0 win at Ipswich, where Isak’s brace at Portman Road restored some belief.
The Swede’s resurgence is timely. His first year at Anfield was chopped up by injuries; now he finally looks like the focal point Iraola imagined. But the squad list still has gaps: Hugo Ekitike, Bradley and Leoni remain unavailable, while Federico Chiesa and Wataru Endo were not registered for Champions League duty. Options are thinner than the names on paper might suggest.
Atlético land on Merseyside still stinging from that 3-0 defeat at Athletic Bilbao, yet they sit sixth in La Liga with seven points from four games and enough evidence that the wheels are not coming off. Simeone is poised to hand Alvarez his first start of the season, with Cristian Romero also pushing for a first start since joining. Alexander Sorloth (thigh) and Arnau Ortiz (suspended) are out.
Probable lineups:
**Liverpool expected XI:** Alisson; Kerkez, Araújo, Jacquet, van Dijk; Szoboszlai, Mac Allister, Barcola; Wirtz, Gakpo, Isak
**Atlético Madrid expected XI:** Oblak; Llorente, Romero, Hancko, Grimaldo; Giuliano Simeone, Barrios, Hjulmand, Lookman; Baena, Álvarez
The prediction? A finely balanced night that never quite breaks open: Liverpool 1-1 Atlético Madrid, with Isak and Alvarez on the scoresheet.
If that plays out, Liverpool’s season won’t collapse. But the questions about Iraola’s defence – and their ability to create enough clear chances at this level – will only grow louder.
