NBA MVP Race Update: Luka Dončić Leads Amid Injuries
The NBA’s MVP race is barely three weeks old and already limping.
Anthony Edwards is out after just four games. Stephen Curry has joined him on the injury report with an oblique tear. Yet the top of the league still crackles with star power, and the early numbers are outrageous even by modern standards.
Here’s where the race stands after games through Nov. 12, with the season already demanding a brutal level of durability from its leading men.
5. Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
Stats: 27.8 points, 3.7 rebounds, 3.9 assists in 10 games
MVP odds: +15000
This is a farewell, at least for now.
Curry will vanish from the MVP conversation for a couple of weeks after suffering an oblique abdominal tear, and Golden State will feel every minute of his absence. He was in one of those grooves only he can find, detonating defenses from deep and hitting 3-pointers at a wild 45.7% clip — a rate that would stand as the best of his career.
The Warriors’ offense has been built around his gravity for a decade. Take him off the floor, and the system suddenly looks ordinary. The concern isn’t just the games he’ll miss; it’s how long it takes him to rediscover that impossible rhythm when he returns. For now, his MVP case pauses mid-sentence.
4. Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics
Stats: 26.3 points, 6.1 rebounds, 7.5 assists in 11 games
MVP odds: +1200
This version of Jayson Tatum is all business.
In Boston’s charged meeting with former teammate Jaylen Brown and the 76ers on Tuesday, Tatum didn’t lean into the drama. He leaned into control. No emotional detours, no forcing the moment. Just a star who knows exactly what he wants to get to on the floor.
Any lingering questions from his ruptured Achilles tendon in May 2025 have been answered. He’s moving with a looseness and confidence that simply weren’t there during his rehab months. With Paul George sliding neatly into a complementary role, Tatum has more room to orchestrate, and the result is a smoother, more calculated attack.
Boston looks like a serious early problem for the rest of the East, and Tatum is the one setting that tone.
3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
Stats: 29.7 points, 4.3 rebounds, 4.5 assists in 12 games
MVP odds: +750
The past week has been a grind.
Two straight losses to the Portland Trail Blazers laid bare just how heavy the load is for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander right now. Oklahoma City is trying to navigate a wave of injuries, and every possession seems to funnel back to its star guard.
He’s still putting up numbers. He’s still attacking. But it’s taking more out of him, and the trademark efficiency has dipped. With so many starters sidelined, defenses can load up on him, send extra help, shade every driving lane. Every point feels contested, every decision more complicated.
In a normal year, this level of production under these conditions would rocket him up the ballot. This isn’t a normal year. With the two players ahead of him putting together historic starts, Gilgeous-Alexander will need both wins and a sustained surge to climb any higher.
2. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
Stats: 30.3 points, 11.7 rebounds, 2.8 assists in 12 games
MVP odds: +150
The numbers are starting to look like something out of a video game.
Victor Wembanyama isn’t just better than he was last season; he’s beginning to separate from almost everyone else. Over his last five games, he’s averaging 36.6 points per night, and the Spurs are riding the league’s longest active winning streak at 10 games.
The change is obvious. This is a more assertive Wembanyama, one who reads double-teams early, punishes mismatches, and dictates where defenders have to stand. He’s no longer just reacting to coverages — he’s manipulating them.
And the most unsettling detail for the rest of the NBA? He doesn’t turn 23 until Jan. 4. This is the early draft of what he might become. Front offices across the league are going to have to get used to penciling his name into MVP discussions for the next decade.
1. Luka Dončić, Los Angeles Lakers
Stats: 38.6 points, 7.5 rebounds, 7.6 assists in 11 games
MVP odds: +155
Luka Dončić just dropped 32 points in back-to-back games and watched his scoring average fall by 6.5 points.
That’s how blistering his start has been.
He has dragged the Lakers to an 11-2 record, the best mark in the Western Conference, while operating at a level of efficiency that matches anything he’s done since arriving in Los Angeles. The step-back 3s are falling at a career-high 40.8%, and when those shots drop, the rest of the floor opens like a runway.
Defenders crowd him at the arc, he punishes them inside. They sag off, he buries them from deep. It’s a constant, unsolvable equation.
There was a brief scare on Nov. 11 when he tweaked his right ankle, but he reported no pain the next day. For now, he looks unstoppable, and his grip on the early MVP lead is firm.
The pattern of this season is already clear: injuries are cutting into the field. If Dončić stays upright while playing at this level, who, exactly, is going to catch him?
