Premier League Final Day Predictions: Key Matchups and Changes
On a final day that already feels slightly unhinged before a ball is kicked, Ben Bloom’s predicted XIs sketch out a Premier League programme split between farewells, auditions and clubs simply desperate for the season to stop.
Brighton v Man Utd: Europe on the line, kids on the stage
Brighton still have something tangible to chase. A European spot sharpens the mind, and the return of Diego Gomez last weekend may now push him straight into the starting line-up. If the Paraguayan gets the nod, Ferdi Kadioglu is likely to be shunted back into defence, with either Joel Veltman or Maxim De Cuyper making way unless Mats Wieffer proves his ankle can handle a start.
James Milner, once a default pick for any manager craving control, has barely had a sniff since injury. The Pascal Gross–Carlos Baleba partnership has locked down the middle and there’s no obvious reason to break it up on a day when Brighton need clarity, not sentiment.
Manchester United arrive in a different mood. Michael Carrick has promised to “respect this last game” but also hinted heavily at chances for his youngsters. Expect the team sheet to double as a glimpse of the club’s next chapter. Tyler Fletcher and Shea Lacey are in line for minutes, Ayden Heaven could be trusted at the back, and the vacancy created by Casemiro’s departure points towards Manuel Ugarte or Mason Mount stepping into midfield.
Benjamin Sesko’s ongoing absence clouds the forward line, and Amad’s starting place is under threat from Patrick Dorgu or Mount. It feels less like a settled XI, more like a live experiment in front of a full house.
Burnley v Wolves: avoiding rock bottom
This is the scrap no one wants: a battle to avoid finishing bottom. Burnley and Wolves both look like teams counting down the hours to summer.
Mike Jackson has already warned that he will “give people some minutes” and “manipulate the squad a little bit”, which is another way of saying: good luck predicting this. The side that lost to Arsenal played well enough to justify another go, but the final day often tempts managers into one last shuffle. Bashir Humphreys, Josh Laurent, Zeki Amdouni, Marcus Edwards, Quilindschy Hartman and Jacob Bruun Larsen are all hovering, waiting for a door to open.
Wolves, bizarrely, could finish as high as 19th with a win. Rob Edwards moved to a back four against Fulham and got enough from that group to stick rather than twist. The shape gives him the option of switching between a 4-2-3-1 and a 3-4-2-1 without changing personnel, so Rodrigo Gomes is probably the one looking over his shoulder. Jackson Tchatchoua or Pedro Lima offer alternatives on the right, while Hugo Bueno may reclaim left-back if Edwards wants extra security.
Crystal Palace v Arsenal: rotation versus rhythm
For Crystal Palace, the real show comes on Wednesday. A UEFA Conference League final bends everything around it. Oliver Glasner has admitted he changes his mind several times a day, veering from full rotation to none at all. One decision is straightforward: Chris Richards is out with ankle ligament damage and is a major doubt for midweek, so the defence is unlikely to be ripped up unless Jefferson Lerma drops in.
Higher up the pitch, nothing is nailed down. Glasner will be wary of losing key men to injury days before a European final, which points towards a cautious, slightly patched-together attack.
Arsenal, already crowned Premier League champions, are using this as a launchpad for the UEFA Champions League final. Expect a different kind of rotation: not rest for rest’s sake, but a chance to reward squad players and fine-tune fitness. William Saliba, Bukayo Saka and David Raya all trained individually on Thursday and look prime candidates to sit this one out.
That opens the door for academy talent. Marli Salmon and Max Dowman could both start, with a supporting cast of squad players eager to make a late impression before the biggest game of their careers.
Fulham v Newcastle: changes after a flat display
Fulham’s last outing at Wolves fizzled. It would be a surprise if Marco Silva didn’t react. Ryan Sessegnon has returned to training, though a start feels a step too far after so long out. The more likely tweaks come in attack, where Harry Wilson, benched last time, is pushing to return. Josh King, Samuel Chukwueze and Kevin are all in the frame to freshen up a forward line that drifted through their previous match.
Newcastle’s decisions are more specific. Kieran Trippier started last weekend, so Eddie Howe must decide whether to keep faith with the same back four or shift Lewis Hall to right-back and restore Dan Burn to his more familiar left side. Sandro Tonali is “potentially” available after a hamstring scare, with Howe downplaying the severity. If he doesn’t make it, Joe Willock or Jacob Ramsey step in.
The front four clicked against West Ham, so there’s no urgency to meddle. Jacob Murphy and Anthony Elanga give Howe options, while Anthony Gordon, absent for five games amid talk of a move, lingers as the great unknown.
Liverpool v Brentford: a farewell feel at Anfield?
Anfield could be bracing for a day of goodbyes. Arne Slot has stayed coy on whether Mohamed Salah will play a final game for the club, and that single decision shapes the entire attacking plan. If Salah starts, Rio Ngumoha may have to settle for an impact role rather than a third consecutive start.
At the back, there is more uncertainty. Alisson Becker and Alexander Isak have returned to training but their match fitness is unclear, and Jeremie Frimpong is also a doubt. Andrew Robertson is in line for what may be a last start before a summer exit, while right-back looks set to fall to either Curtis Jones or Joe Gomez in a reshuffled back line.
Brentford, by contrast, have no time for sentiment. European qualification remains within reach, so Keith Andrews will roll out his strongest side. Kristoffer Ajer has kept Sepp van den Berg out of the team in recent weeks, and that duel continues into the final day. Kevin Schade, rested after a barren spell, could return, but an unchanged XI feels the most natural call. Vitaly Janelt has his place back after injury, and Jordan Henderson waits as the senior option if Andrews wants one last twist.
Man City v Aston Villa: Guardiola’s last gamble
At the Etihad, unpredictability is the only certainty. Pep Guardiola’s final match in charge of Manchester City invites nostalgia, rotation and the odd wildcard. John Stones and Bernardo Silva are both tipped to start in what would be their own farewells, while Phil Foden, Savinho and Rayan Cherki will all be desperate to be part of the send-off.
The big question sits at centre-forward. Omar Marmoush has a strong chance of starting, but Guardiola may yet decide that Erling Haaland should lead the line one last time. Try to second-guess him at your peril.
Aston Villa arrive as freshly crowned UEFA Europa League winners, and Unai Emery has admitted it is “not easy” to refocus after that high. He insists he will “try to be serious” with his team selection, though the circumstances scream rotation. Emiliano Martinez is likely out after breaking a finger before the final, and several squad players are poised to be rewarded with starts. For Villa, this feels like a lap of honour with boots on.
Nottingham Forest v Bournemouth: safety versus streak
Nottingham Forest can finally breathe. Vitor Pereira has confirmed his side can “relax a bit” now that survival is secure, which means no risks with half-fit players. Murillo and Ola Aina remain sidelined, but Ibrahim Sangare, back from the bench last time, is pushing for a start. Jair Cunha offers another defensive option, and Taiwo Awoniyi could be restored up front at the expense of either Igor Jesus or Chris Wood.
Bournemouth, unbeaten in 17 and fresh off a superb draw with Man City, have no reason to meddle with a winning formula. Ryan Christie stays suspended, and while Justin Kluivert and Lewis Cook returned from the bench in midweek, starting them here would be a bold leap. Momentum is everything; the Cherries look set to ride the same wave one more time.
Sunderland v Chelsea: minor tweaks, major implications
Sunderland’s win over Everton has given Regis Le Bris little incentive to tinker. Stability is the default, though he will make a late call on Omar Aldarete after the defender limped off in that victory. If he misses out, Luke O’Nien is the natural deputy. Chemsdine Talbi is ruled out after his own knock, and Habib Diarra and Chris Rigg are expected to reprise their roles from the bench.
Chelsea’s picture is more complex. Calum McFarlane has confirmed that Levi Colwill, Joao Pedro and Reece James have all been back in training since the win over Spurs, putting them in strong contention to start. James’ role is pivotal: if he plays in defence, Malo Gusto’s minutes shrink; if he moves into midfield, Andrey Santos’ chances shift. Trevoh Chalobah could be drafted in for Wesley Fofana, and both centre-back positions are under review as Chelsea weigh fitness, form and future plans in one go.
Spurs v Everton: Solanke, Maddison and a manager’s dilemma
Spurs went unchanged last time out, but Roberto De Zerbi has more weapons available now. Dominic Solanke has been passed fit, and James Maddison’s increasing minutes point towards a start. The question is not just whether they play, but for how long. De Zerbi must balance the urge to unleash both with the reality of their recent workloads.
Djed Spence is also available despite a jaw injury against Chelsea, giving the manager another option if he wants to shake up the right flank. Randal Kolo Muani’s place is under scrutiny, with Spence, Lucas Bergvall or another option all in the frame if De Zerbi chooses to change the dynamic of his attack.
Everton, meanwhile, arrive on the back of a defeat to Sunderland that dented both pride and momentum. David Moyes kept an unchanged XI for that game and may be tempted to do so again, especially after Merlin Rohl scored their only goal. Idrissa Gueye, yet to train fully, has only a “50/50 chance” of involvement. Any tweaks are likely to involve Dwight McNeil, Tyrique George or Thierno Barry, but Moyes is not a manager who enjoys ripping things up for the sake of it.
West Ham v Leeds: must-win tension at both ends
At West Ham, Nuno Espirito Santo has already made his tactical call. He abandoned a back three inside half an hour against Newcastle and is expected to stick with a four-man defence for this must-win clash. The real debates are narrower: Kyle Walker-Peters or Aaron Wan-Bissaka at right-back, and Pablo or Callum Wilson as the support act for Valentin Castellanos.
Leeds limp towards the finish line with bodies strewn across the treatment room. Ilia Gruev, Noah Okafor and Gabriel Gudmundsson are still out, joined now by Anton Stach and Sean Longstaff. There is at least some relief: Pascal Struijk and Jayden Bogle are back in training, though their readiness remains unclear. Brenden Aaronson should shake off a dead leg and is locked in a straight fight with Wilfried Gnonto for what is effectively the final attacking berth.
In a season that has lurched from crisis to revival and back again, the last team sheets of the campaign may say as much about each club’s future as they do about their final result.
