The transfer portal doesn’t officially open until Tuesday. The ink on this season’s bracket is barely dry. None of that matters.
In the sport’s new calendar, April is already about 2026-27. Rosters are half-built, NIL budgets are loaded, and coaches are recruiting as hard in other locker rooms as they are in high schools. With that in mind, here’s a super-early look at a projected Top 25 built on returning cores, incoming talent and a whole lot of educated guesswork about the portal.
Some lineups have “Portal TBD” penciled in. That’s not a shrug. It’s an acknowledgment that certain programs, with their resources and track records, are going to land impact pieces — whether from another college or overseas — once the bidding starts.
1. Illinois
- Starters: Portal TBD, Jake Davis, Andrej Stojakovic, David Mirkovic, Tomislav Ivisic
- Notable returners: Zvonimir Ivisic, Ty Rodgers, Brandon Lee, Jason Jakstys
- Newcomers: Quentin Coleman (No. 34, 6-4 SG), Lucas Morillo (No. 58, 6-7 SG), Ethan Brown (No. 117, 6-4 CG), Landon Davis (No. 150, 6-8 PF)
Illinois’ task list is brutally simple: go get a point guard. That’s it. If everyone with eligibility returns — aside from projected lottery pick Keaton Wagler — Brad Underwood walks into the fall with a title-ready roster.
The frontcourt is massive and gifted, and Mirkovic is poised to become an All-America-level centerpiece. The offense will run through him; he’s already one of the most creative scorers in the country. Underwood’s recent history suggests at least one of the freshmen will pop beyond expectations. Ethan Brown has drawn early buzz, and Coleman arrives as a four-star shooter. Add back Ty Rodgers, a 6-6 wing with the size and versatility Underwood covets, and the Illini look loaded everywhere but at the controls.
Find the right lead guard, and Illinois has the profile of a preseason No. 1.
2. Michigan
- Starters: Elliot Cadeau, Brandon McCoy Jr., Trey McKenney, Portal TBD, Aday Mara
- Notable returners: Oscar Goodman, Malick Kordel, Winters Grady, LJ Cason (likely redshirt)
- Newcomers: Quinn Costello (No. 31, 6-10 PF), Lincoln Cosby (No. 38, 6-8 SF), Joseph Hartman (No. 79, 6-6 SG), Malachi Brown (No. 196, 6-5 SF), Marcus Moller (UR, 7-3 C)
Michigan’s repeat hopes hinge on two names: Aday Mara and Morez Johnson Jr. Both have NBA decisions to make. If even one returns — and the early lean is Mara — Dusty May will have another championship-caliber roster, especially if he lands a high-end big in the portal.
The backcourt of Elliot Cadeau and Trey McKenney gives the Wolverines a sturdy floor. Cadeau’s playmaking and McKenney’s scoring should travel. McCoy has dipped in the rankings, but the talent that once put him near the top of his class hasn’t vanished. If May unlocks that, Michigan’s ceiling jumps again. With the right frontcourt partner for Mara, the title defense becomes very real.
3. Arizona
- Starters: Portal TBD, Caleb Holt, Ivan Kharchenkov, Dwayne Aristode, Motiejus Krivas
- Notable returners: Sidi Gueye
- Newcomers: Cameron Holmes (No. 34, 6-6 SF)
Assuming both Kharchenkov and Krivas are back, Arizona should again field one of the nastiest defenses in the country. The Wildcats’ biggest offseason question is obvious: can Tommy Lloyd land a high-level point guard and shore up the bench?
He usually does. Lloyd remains one of the sport’s elite international recruiters, and the expectation is he’ll pull a starter from either the traditional portal or the global market. Caleb Holt arrives as one of the top prospects in the class and a ready-made Brayden Burries replacement. He also has the built-in familiarity of having played under Lloyd with USA Basketball. Sidi Gueye barely saw the floor as a freshman, but if Lloyd’s Gonzaga blueprint holds, he’s a prime candidate to blossom with patience and reps.
Solve the point guard spot, and Arizona’s defense and length give it a clear top-five profile.
4. Florida
- Starters: Boogie Fland, Urban Klavzar, Isaiah Brown, Alex Condon, Rueben Chinyelu
- Notable returners: CJ Ingram, Alex Lloyd, Alex Kovatchev, AJ Brown
- Other newcomers: Jones Lay (UR, 7-0 C)
Todd Golden doesn’t need miracles from the portal, just the right accents. Condon and Chinyelu project back because Florida can likely outbid the NBA for another year, though Condon’s decision sits closer to the fence. If both return, that’s arguably the best starting frontcourt in the country.
The Gators will look for guard depth and perhaps a starter-level perimeter piece, but even without major additions, this is a preseason top-10 roster. Fland’s shot creation, Brown’s scoring and a bruising interior duo give Golden balance and upside. Florida starts this cycle from a position of rare comfort.
5. Duke
- Starters: Deron Rippey Jr., Caleb Foster, Dame Sarr, Cameron Williams, Patrick Ngongba II
- Notable returners: Cayden Boozer
- Other newcomers: Bryson Howard (No. 12, 6-4 SG), Maxime Meyer (No. 107, 7-1 C)
This is a projection built with input from those closest to the Triangle. Ngongba could test the NBA waters, and if he bolts, Duke is still expected to land a premier replacement. Flory Bidunga’s name has hovered around Durham for a while.
What this group lacks is the automatic All-American of the last two seasons — no Cooper Flagg, no Cameron Boozer. What it does have is experience. Foster, Sarr, Boozer and Ngongba have all taken their lumps in big moments. Jon Scheyer’s challenge is to keep Foster and Boozer in the fold; even if he loses Boozer to the portal, his track record as a roster architect at Duke is already strong. He has the resources, and he’s shown he knows how to make the pieces fit. Pencil the Blue Devils into the top five until proven otherwise.
6. UConn
- Starters: Silas Demary, Solo Ball, Jayden Ross, Portal TBD, Eric Reibe
- Notable returners: Jaylin Stewart, Jacob Furphy
- Newcomers: Colben Landrew (No. 24, 6-6 SF), Junior County (No. 27, 6-4 SG)
The numbers don’t lie. UConn was nearly 12 points per 100 possessions better with Tarris Reed at center than with Reibe. That gap will shape Dan Hurley’s spring. Expect him to chase a high-level big even with Reibe returning, because his best teams have always had two strong options at the five.
Reibe has flashed potential, but this offseason is crucial for his development. In the backcourt, the path is clearer: if Solo Ball’s 3-point shooting returns to his sophomore level and Demary makes a Tristen Newton-style leap from Year 1 to Year 2, the Huskies can field one of the country’s best guard tandems. The question sits up front, where Hurley’s aggression in the portal will determine whether this is merely a good team or another national contender.
7. Michigan State
- Starters: Jeremy Fears Jr., Kur Teng, Jordan Scott, Coen Carr, Cam Ward
- Notable returners: Divine Ugochukwu, Jesse McCulloch
- Newcomers: Jasiah Jervis (No. 26, 6-4 SG), Ethan Taylor (No. 30, 7-0 C), Carlos Medlock Jr. (No. 52, 5-11 PG), Julius Avent (No. 81, 6-7 PF)
Last preseason, the concern in East Lansing was shooting. That bet against Tom Izzo didn’t age well. This time, the worry shifts to low-post scoring with Carson Cooper and Jaxon Kohler gone.
Fears changes the calculus. As long as he’s running the show, Michigan State’s floor stays high. The projected frontcourt leans more face-up than back-to-the-basket: Carr is a slashing athlete, Ward more of a four than a traditional five. McCulloch and freshman seven-footer Ethan Taylor provide different looks, but Izzo has a history of simply rolling with his best five and solving the rest on the fly. With Fears in charge and talent on the wings, that formula still plays.
8. Iowa State
- Starters: Killyan Toure, Jamarion Batemon, Milan Momcilovic, Blake Buchanan, Dominykas Pleta
- Newcomers: Dorian Rinaldo-Komlan (No. 86, 6-10 C), Jackson Kiss (No. 115, 6-8 C), Christian Wiggins (No. 131, 6-4 SG), Yusef Gray Jr. (No. 197, 6-3 PG)
T.J. Otzelberger turned down the North Carolina job, signed an extension and gained even more institutional backing. That’s a dangerous combination for the rest of the Big 12. He was already one of the sport’s sharpest evaluators and developers; now he has the resources to chase higher-end prospects.
On paper, Iowa State returns five players capable of starting. The Cyclones could still upgrade up front and slide Toure back to the two, then find a portal point guard to replace Tamin Lipsey. The fulcrum is Momcilovic. He averaged 16.9 points and shot 48.7 percent from three — the kind of profile that tempts the NBA. If he returns, he could play himself into 2027 lottery range. If he doesn’t, Otzelberger’s new clout will be tested quickly.
9. Arkansas
- Starters: Jordan Smith Jr., Meleek Thomas, Billy Richmond, Portal TBD, Portal TBD
- Notable returners: Isaiah Sealy
- Other newcomers: JJ Andrews (No. 16, 6-6 SF), Abdou Toure (No. 22, 6-5 SF)
John Calipari walks into Fayetteville with a backcourt that can hound anyone. Smith, in particular, looks like the tone-setter. On the grassroots circuit, he stood out as an elite defender and relentless competitor who lifts the energy of everyone around him. He’s not Darius Acuff Jr. as a scorer, but he can flip Arkansas’ defense from ordinary to nasty.
To make that jump, the Razorbacks must add size and rim protection. The perimeter is deep and gifted, but the frontcourt is a blank slate. Calipari’s mission is clear: go get bigs, then let the guards turn up the pressure.
10. Nebraska
- Starters: Portal TBD, Pryce Sandfort, Braden Frager, Berke Buyuktuncel, Portal TBD
- Notable returners: Connor Essegian, Cale Jacobsen
- Newcomers: Colin Rice (No. 80, 6-7 SF), Jacob Lanier (No. 90, 6-5 SF)
Fred Hoiberg has carved out an identity in Lincoln: shoot the lights out. With Sandfort, Frager and a healthy Essegian all back, Nebraska should again rank among the nation’s best perimeter shooting teams.
Jacobsen is steady enough to start, but Hoiberg will hunt a starting-caliber point guard and a big in the portal. Nail those two spots, and the Huskers’ spacing and firepower make them a nightmare matchup.
11. Iowa
- Starters: Portal TBD, Kael Combs, Tate Sage, Cooper Koch, Portal TBD
- Notable returners: Cam Manyawu, Isaia Howard, Trevin Jirak, Trey Thompson (redshirt)
- Newcomers: Ethan Harris (No. 112, 6-9 PF)
Ben McCollum just took Iowa to the Elite Eight and, in the process, announced himself as one of the sharpest tacticians in the country. Now he faces his first big retool in Iowa City: replacing Bennett Stirtz, his do-everything lead guard.
McCollum’s system demands a lot from that position, and he also needs a true anchor in the post to better handle the size of Big Ten powers like Michigan and Illinois. The good news: the wings are long and skilled. Sage (6-7) and Koch (6-8) give Iowa real positional size, and the roster continuity around them is strong. With McCollum pulling the strings, it might be time to stop doubting the Hawkeyes on an annual basis.
12. Gonzaga
- Starters: Mario Saint-Supery, Jack Kayil, Davis Fogle, Braden Huff, Portal TBD
- Notable returners: Ismaila Diagne, Emmanuel Innocenti, Parker Jefferson
- Newcomers: Luca Foster (No. 48, 6-5 SF), Sam Funches (No. 103, 6-10 C)
This ranking assumes one critical thing: Braden Huff’s knee is right and he’s back. If that happens, he becomes the focal point with Graham Ike gone. Around him, Mark Few has lined up another intriguing international addition in Jack Kayil, a 20-year-old guard averaging 11.6 points and 3.8 assists for Alba Berlin, one of Germany’s top pro clubs.
Pair Kayil with Saint-Supery, and Gonzaga’s backcourt suddenly looks dynamic and creative. The Bulldogs will still need frontcourt help from the portal, but the offensive upside with a healthy Huff and that guard pairing is obvious.
13. Purdue
- Starters: Omer Mayer, C.J. Cox, Jack Benter, Caden Pierce, Daniel Jacobsen
- Notable returners: Gicarri Harris, Antione West Jr., Raleigh Burgess (redshirt)
- Newcomers: Luke Ertel (No. 46, 6-1 PG), Jacob Webber (No. 63, 6-6 SF), Sinan Huan (No. 70, 7-0 C), Jamyn Sondrup (No. 190, 6-9 C), Rivers Knight (No. 238, 6-8 PF)
Purdue without a classic low-post bruiser feels strange, but that’s the current build. The bet here is simple: Matt Painter plus Omer Mayer.
Mayer’s freshman year never quite took off — 14.3 minutes per game — yet his per-40 numbers (15.3 points, 3.2 assists) hint at a breakout. With Braden Smith gone, the ball belongs to Mayer. Painter has already dipped into the portal for Princeton transfer Caden Pierce, the 2024 Ivy League Player of the Year, who brings toughness and versatility to the frontcourt. One of the freshmen bigs could eventually grow into that traditional back-to-the-basket role, but even without that, Painter’s track record keeps Purdue in the mix.
14. Houston
- Starters: Portal TBD, Mercy Miller, Chase McCarty, Chris Cenac, Joseph Tugler
- Notable returners: Cedric Lath, Bryce Jackson (redshirt)
- Newcomers: Arafan Diane (No. 17, 7-1 C), Ikenna Alozie (No. 41, 6-2 CG)
Houston’s identity starts at the rim. With Cenac and Tugler potentially both back and Diane arriving as a 7-1 rebounding force, Kelvin Sampson finally has the low-post scoring threat he lacked this season.
The backcourt is where the questions pile up. The Cougars lose all three starting guards and must rebuild that unit through the portal. Miller looks like the next in-house success story, a program guard who waited, developed and now steps into a bigger role. Even so, Sampson needs at least one, probably two, impact perimeter pieces to keep Houston at its current level.
15. Kansas
- Starters: Taylen Kinney, Kohl Rosario, Portal TBD, Portal TBD, Portal TBD
- Notable returners: Jamari McDowell, Samis Calderon
- Newcomers: Davion Adkins (No. 55, 6-9 C), Trent Perry (No. 92, 6-5 SF), Luke Barnett (No. 132, 6-4 SG)
Kansas’ frontcourt has been gutted in the portal. Flory Bidunga, Bryson Tiller and Paul Mbiya are all out — at least for now. Bidunga did this dance last year and returned, so that door isn’t shut. The Jayhawks are also widely viewed as a frontrunner for Tyran Stokes, the top player in the 2026 class.
For the moment, though, Bill Self stares at three open starting spots up front. History says he’ll fill them with quality. It’s a sign of the times that even Kansas can watch its entire starting frontcourt hit the portal. It’s also telling that Self came back with the assurance that the program would stay aggressive and well-funded in response.
16. Saint Louis
- Starters: Trey Green, Quentin Jones, Kellen Thames, Amari McCottry, Portal TBD
- Notable returners: Ishan Sharma, Jax Kerr
- Newcomers: Jermel Thomas (No. 176, 6-2 PG)
Saint Louis didn’t just show up in March; it swung. A blowout of Georgia in the first round and a spirited challenge of Michigan proved the Billikens can live with high majors.
Robbie Avila’s departure hurts, but it also opens a lane. Josh Schertz now has the budget and opportunity to find a bigger, more athletic center to handle the size they’ll see deep in March. Offense won’t be the issue. Green and Sharma are elite shooters, Jones and Thames are among the nation’s best slashers, and McCottry brings playmaking at the four. If Schertz lands the right anchor, this system scales.
17. TCU
- Starters: Brock Harding, Micah Robinson, Liutauras Lelevicius, David Punch, Xavier Edmonds
- Notable returners: Tanner Toolson
- Newcomers: Trent Lincoln (No. 1 JC, 6-3 PG), Ryan Hunt (UR JC, 7-0 C)
Continuity is TCU’s biggest weapon. Four starters return from a group that won 11 Big 12 games, and the Punch-Edmonds frontcourt quietly ranked among the most effective in the league.
Harding orchestrates, and with another year of chemistry, the Horned Frogs’ offense should tick up. The wild card is Lincoln, the top junior college recruit in the country, who gives Jamie Dixon another attacking guard. Add in seven-footer Ryan Hunt as depth, and TCU has the look of a rugged, veteran team nobody wants to see in February.
18. Texas
- Starters: Portal TBD, Portal TBD, Camden Heide, Dailyn Swain, Matas Vokietaitis
- Notable returners: Simeon Wilcher, Nic Codie, Declan Duru
- Newcomers: Austin Goosby (No. 28, 6-5 SF), Bo Ogden (No. 40, 6-5 SG), Joe Sterling (No. 96, 6-4 CG), Coleman Elkins (UR, 6-10 C)
Matas Vokietaitis turned March into his personal stage, pouring in 55 points across Texas’ three NCAA Tournament wins and ranking third nationally in free-throw rate. If he can become reliable at the line, he has all-league written all over him.
Sean Miller’s to-do list is clear: find a point guard and at least one more starting-caliber perimeter piece. Texas has the NIL muscle to compete for both. Goosby and Ogden, both top-40 wings, will push for minutes immediately, but the backcourt needs a veteran hand. With that in place, Vokietaitis and a deep group of forwards give the Longhorns real upside.
19. Kentucky
- Starters: Portal TBD, Collin Chandler, Kam Williams, Portal TBD, Malachi Moreno
- Notable returners: Trent Noah
- Newcomers: Mason Williams (No. 125, 6-2 PG)
Kentucky has lost a small army to the portal — Jaland Lowe, Mouhamed Dioubate, Andrija Jelavic, Jasper Johnson, Brandon Garrison — plus Otega Oweh to graduation and Jayden Quaintance likely to the NBA. The flip side? A lot of NIL money just came free with limited proven production walking out the door.
The market for point guards will be brutal, but Mark Pope and his staff have room to maneuver. If they can land the right initiator and one more impact piece, the bones of a strong roster are there. Moreno’s freshman season was a bright spot in a disappointing year; a true breakout from him changes Kentucky’s ceiling in a hurry.
20. Virginia
- Starters: Chance Mallory, Sam Lewis, Portal TBD, Thijs De Ridder, Johann Grunloh
- Notable returners: Silas Barksdale (redshirt), Elijah Gertrude, Martin Carrere
- Newcomers: N/A
The international frontcourt gamble paid off. De Ridder and Grunloh both hit, and De Ridder in particular has the look of an All-America candidate as a sophomore. With those two back, Virginia should again wall off the paint and post one of the nation’s stingiest two-point defenses.
Beyond that, the depth chart is thin. Outside the four projected starters, the returning players combined for just 50 points last season, and Ryan Odom has yet to sign a 2026 recruit. The portal will have to supply multiple rotation pieces — and at least one starter — if Virginia wants to stay in the national conversation.
21. Miami
- Starters: Portal TBD, Portal TBD, Shelton Henderson, Caleb Gaskins, Portal TBD
- Notable returners: Dante Allen, Marcus Allen, Salih Altuntas
- Newcomers: Caleb Gaskins (No. 13, 6-8 PF)
Miami’s blueprint is straightforward. Jai Lucas needs a point guard and a big. Those are the two hardest spots to fill, but he has proof of concept now after Malik Reneau and Tre Donaldson posted career-best seasons under his watch.
The rest of the rotation is solid. Henderson has lottery potential if he can add a jumper, Gaskins arrives as a top-15 talent, and Dante Allen offers stability in the backcourt. With the right spine at the one and five, this group can take a clear step forward.
22. St. John’s
- Starters: Dylan Darling, Ian Jackson, Joson Sanon, Portal TBD, Portal TBD
- Notable returners: Ruben Prey, Lefteris Liotopoulos
- Newcomers: N/A
This might be conservative for a Rick Pitino team, but the losses up front are significant, headlined by the departure of Zuby Ejiofor, the program’s anchor.
The bet here is on Pitino himself and the development of a gifted perimeter trio. Darling, Jackson and Sanon will benefit from a full offseason under his demanding eye, and that usually yields a leap. The frontcourt will need reinforcements from the portal, but with Pitino’s track record, dismissing St. John’s would be foolish.
23. Vanderbilt
- Starters: Tyler Tanner, Chandler Bing, Portal TBD, Portal TBD, Portal TBD
- Notable returners: Mike James, Jayden Leverett
- Newcomers: Ethan Mgbako (No. 68, 6-6 SF), Anthony Brown (No. 75, 6-1 PG), Jackson Sheffield (No. 97, 6-9 C)
If he returns, Tyler Tanner might be the single most valuable returning player in college basketball. He averaged 19.5 points and 5.1 assists with a staggering 125.9 offensive rating. That’s a superstar profile.
Mark Byington’s job is to build a functional rotation around him. Vanderbilt will need multiple starters from the portal, but having the best player on the floor in most games is a powerful starting point. Add in a solid recruiting class headlined by Mgbako and Brown, and the Commodores suddenly look dangerous.
24. North Carolina
- Starters: Portal TBD, Luka Bogavac, Dylan Mingo, Jarin Stevenson, Henri Veesaar
- Notable returners: Jaydon Young
- Newcomers: Maximo Adams (No. 21, 6-7 SF), Malloy Smith (UR, 6-5 CG)
Michael Malone’s first challenge in Chapel Hill is retention. If he can keep the core intact and hold onto the current recruiting class, this ranking will climb in a hurry.
The pieces are enticing. Mingo is a five-star headliner, Adams is a top-25 wing, and Veesaar has the tools to become one of the nation’s best centers. Six rotation players return from an NCAA Tournament team, giving Malone a workable base. The Heels still need portal help — especially at guard — but the foundation is strong enough that the ceiling depends more on who stays than who arrives.
25. Tennessee
- Starters: Portal TBD, Amari Evans, Tyler Lundblade, Portal TBD, DeWayne Brown
- Notable returners: Ethan Burg, Torey Henderson, Clarence Massamba
- Newcomers: Ralph Scott (No. 53, 6-8 SF), Manny Green (No. 137, 6-6 PF), Marquis Clark (No. 253, 6-1 PG)
Tennessee has already landed one of the portal’s elite shooters in Lundblade, who averaged 15.6 points and hit 40.6 percent from three for Missouri Valley champion Belmont. History says the best players in that league usually scale up just fine.
The Vols took a major hit with JP Estrella’s exit. He had the makings of an SEC star in the frontcourt. Brown can step into that role in spurts, but he’s undersized as a full-time five. Rick Barnes will almost certainly chase another big and a starting point guard in the portal. If he hits on both, Tennessee’s perimeter shooting and in-house options up front keep it in the national frame.
The portal opens next week. Rosters will churn, NIL numbers will fly, and some of these projections will look dated by May. But the outlines are already clear: size still matters, guards still win in March, and the programs that master this new market will dictate the shape of 2026-27.
