Real Madrid welcome Girona to Estadio Santiago Bernabéu on 10 April 2026 in La Liga round 31, with the hosts chasing the title from 2nd place (69 points, goal difference +36) and the visitors sitting 12th on 37 points (goal difference -12). The market and the model are aligned: this is priced and predicted as a strong home win.
Looking at underlying form over the current league campaign (30 matches each), Real Madrid are operating at an elite level. They have 22 wins, 3 draws and only 5 defeats, scoring 64 goals (2.1 per match) and conceding 28 (0.9 per match). At the Bernabéu they are particularly dominant: 13 wins and 2 losses from 15, with 36 scored (2.4 per game) and just 12 conceded (0.8). They have failed to score at home only twice and kept 5 clean sheets.
Girona’s overall profile is mid-table but with defensive frailty. They have 9 wins, 10 draws and 11 defeats, with 32 goals scored (1.1 per game) and 44 conceded (1.5 per game). Away from home they have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats, scoring 15 (1.0 per game) and conceding 23 (1.5 per game), with only 1 away clean sheet and 4 away matches without scoring. The prediction model’s comparison reflects this: form index 56% vs 44% in favour of Real Madrid, attack index 63% vs 38%, while Girona’s only relative edge is a better recent defensive index (64% vs 36%), largely due to tighter recent scorelines.
Recent five-match snapshots reinforce the gap. Real Madrid’s last five show 10 goals scored (average 2.0) and 7 conceded (1.4), with an attacking index of 77%. Girona’s last five are more conservative: 6 scored (1.2) and 4 conceded (0.8), with a defensive index of 69% but only 46% in attack. Against a side that scores in 27 of 30 league matches and has gone over 0.5 goals in 27 of 30, Girona’s limited firepower is a concern.
Head-to-Head Record
The head-to-head record in La Liga is heavily tilted towards Real Madrid. Excluding Copa del Rey, the last eight league meetings show:
- On 30 November 2025 in La Liga, at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi, Girona drew 1-1 with Real Madrid.
- On 23 February 2025 in La Liga, at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Real Madrid beat Girona 2-0.
- On 7 December 2024 in La Liga, at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Real Madrid won 3-0.
- On 10 February 2024 in La Liga, at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Real Madrid won 4-0.
- On 30 September 2023 in La Liga, at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Real Madrid won 3-0.
- On 25 April 2023 in La Liga, at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Girona beat Real Madrid 4-2.
- On 30 October 2022 in La Liga, at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Real Madrid and Girona drew 1-1.
- On 17 February 2019 in La Liga, at Santiago Bernabéu, Girona won 2-1.
Over these eight league clashes, Real Madrid have 4 wins, Girona have 2, and there have been 2 draws. More importantly for this fixture, the last four league meetings have produced four Real Madrid wins with a combined score of 12-0, and the last two at the Bernabéu finished 4-0 and 2-0.
Squad news slightly complicates Real Madrid’s picture: Thibaut Courtois and Rodrygo are out, as is F. Mastantuono (suspension). Girona are missing several players including R. Artero, Juan Carlos, Portu, V. Vanat and D. van de Beek, with D. Blind doubtful. Depth favours Real Madrid; their attacking core remains intact, led by Kylian Mbappé (23 league goals, 4 assists) and Vinícius Júnior (11 goals, 5 assists), supported by creative output from Arda Güler and Federico Valverde.
The prediction model gives Real Madrid as winner, with probability percentages 45% home, 45% draw, 10% away, but the Poisson-based distribution and H2H indices are even more emphatic (77% vs 23% for goal expectation, 93% vs 7% in H2H, 93% vs 7% in goals). Bookmakers mirror this dominance: home odds cluster between 1.25 and 1.30, draw between 5.50 and 6.35, and away between 7.05 and 10.75. Implied probabilities after margin put Real Madrid roughly in the 72–76% win range, Girona in the 9–12% band, with the draw around 15–18%.
Betting Verdict
Betting verdict, anchored on the official advice “Winner : Real Madrid” and supported by both stats and prices:
- Main pick: Real Madrid to win (home) – strongly aligned model and market edge, but at short odds.
- Lean on correct score: Real Madrid to win by a multi-goal margin, with 2-0 or 3-0 most consistent with Real Madrid’s home scoring rate (2.4 per game) and Girona’s away concession rate (1.5 per game).
- For risk-tolerant bettors, combining Real Madrid to win with under 4.5 total goals would fit both teams’ under/over profiles (Real Madrid under 4.5 in 29 of 30; Girona under 4.5 in all 30).
Overall forecast: Real Madrid win, Girona’s upset chances are statistically and price-wise limited.
