How One Rule Shift is Changing the Look of One-Day Cricket
England faced Sri Lanka in a second one-day international at Headingley, where coach Brendon McCullum spoke to his players about how the game had shifted. "The ball plays a huge role now," he said.
What he meant was reverse swing—the movement of an older ball through the air in the opposite direction to normal swing. Since July 2025, a new rule lets captains pick which of the two white balls used during an innings they want to continue with after 34 overs. This means the chosen ball can get older and rougher, bringing reverse swing back into focus.
What Has Changed?
Take Sam Curran's performance against India last July at Lord's. During his final spell, he got more than twice as much swing with the old ball compared to the start. Contrast that with Saqib Mahmood's death bowling in Cardiff the previous year, where swing dropped to less than half by the end.
These examples show the bigger trend globally. The single-ball rule for the last 16 overs was meant to aid bowlers, and it’s working. Since the change, pace bowlers have seen the number of deliveries swinging over one degree in the last 10 overs jump from 35% to 50%. Their economy rates in the final five overs have dipped from 8.40 runs per over to 7.95, and bowling averages have improved from 19.2 to 18.3. Simply put, hitting big at the death has become tougher.
England Leading the Charge
Pace bowlers are bowling fuller lengths, using inswing effectively with the reverse swing ball. In the recent Headingley ODI, Sri Lanka bowled 69% of their deliveries six metres from the stumps or fuller, helping them win by 16 runs.
Still, England have shown the biggest statistical gains since the rule change, although they've also upped their game overall this year. Their bowling average at the death has dropped from 36.76 to 20.91, economy from 9.78 to 7.53, while their batting run-rate increased from 8.07 to 9.16.
After losing at Leeds, McCullum urged his team to rethink tactics. Three days later at The Oval, England scored 110 runs in the 10 overs before the opposing captain chose the ball, moving from 104-2 to 214-2.
How Are Other Teams Affected?
- Australia, New Zealand, West Indies, South Africa, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Afghanistan: All have slower scoring rates in death overs since the rule came in.
- West Indies: Death over run-rate down by 2.39 runs per over.
- Alzarri Joseph (Windies): Swing increased by 84%, bowling average fell from 24.1 to 17.4.
- Lungi Ngidi (South Africa): Swing rose 63.3%, bowling average dropped to 13, economy rate down from 9.34 to 6.
- Nathan Smith (New Zealand), Naseem Shah (Pakistan), Mustafizur Rahman (Bangladesh): All saw swing increases with mixed results.
- Shaheen Afridi (Pakistan): Known for death over swing, averaging 1.3 degrees since the change.
- Jofra Archer (England): Leads England with 0.97 degrees average swing at death, a 37% increase.
Looking Ahead to the World Cup
The rule’s impact varies across venues. England’s matches have seen a 63% rise in late-inning swing, while Bangladesh shows a 33% increase in matches across South Asia. Australia and South Africa have seen smaller changes so far.
South Africa hosted only three ODIs post-rule change, making predictions tricky. They already experience higher late-innings swing but also high scoring rates (7.35 runs per over). If swing surges, teams may need to score earlier in their innings.
All stats are accurate up to the start of the ODI tri-series involving Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and England.
