Supercomputer Picks Nashville SC Over Messi’s Inter Miami for 2026 MLS Cup
The regular season has wrapped, and 18 teams remain in the hunt for the 2026 MLS Cup. Both conferences have nine playoff contenders each, all set to battle for postseason glory. Defending champions Inter Miami were early favorites to repeat, largely due to Lionel Messi, but new challengers have risen.
Opta Supercomputer Doubts Inter Miami’s Repeat Chances
Despite Messi’s continued brilliance, the Opta supercomputer is skeptical about Inter Miami repeating their title run. The team’s odds sit at just 8.24%, even with Messi chasing a third consecutive MLS MVP award and having secured his second MLS Golden Boot.
Top 5 Teams Favored to Win the 2026 MLS Cup by Opta
- Nashville SC: 22.16%
- Vancouver Whitecaps: 21.00%
- FC Dallas: 10.42%
- Inter Miami: 8.24%
- St. Louis CITY: 6.12%
Nashville SC dominated the regular season, earning the Supporters’ Shield with a record 77 points and just three losses in 34 matches. Their 22.16% chance to win marks them as clear favorites. They will face the Eastern Conference wild card winner from either Orlando City or FC Cincinnati in the first round.
The Vancouver Whitecaps, led by Thomas Müller, finished first in the Western Conference and hold a 21% chance of winning. They start their playoff journey against Seattle Sounders or Real Salt Lake. Their path to the final looks easier compared to the tough Eastern Conference bracket.
FC Dallas stands as the other double-digit contender with a 10.42% shot at the trophy. Petar Musa’s 22 goals earned him second place in the Golden Boot race, boosting Dallas' chances over defending champs Miami.
Messi’s Impact Still Strong but Odds Remain Low
Even with Messi’s influence, Inter Miami trails behind FC Dallas in predictions. The fact that only three teams in MLS history have successfully defended their Cup adds to the challenge. The last back-to-back winner was the LA Galaxy in 2011 and 2012.
Messi, at 39, remains a force, capable of turning games around. His presence alone keeps Miami dangerous, starting their playoff run against Columbus Crew.
St. Louis CITY Eyes MLS Glory
St. Louis CITY rounds out the top five with a 6.12% chance. The team recently won the U.S. Open Cup in a penalty shootout over Columbus Crew, marking their first silverware since joining the league in 2023. Their postseason begins against LAFC, a formidable opponent.
