Chelsea W vs Everton W: FA WSL Match Preview
Everton W welcome Chelsea W to Goodison Park on 26 April 2026 in FA WSL regular round 20, with the hosts sitting 8th on 20 points and the visitors 2nd on 40 points and chasing Champions League qualification. The market and the model are aligned: Chelsea are heavy favourites, but the official prediction leans specifically toward protecting against the upset with a double chance.
Over the full league campaign, Chelsea’s underlying numbers are clearly superior. They have 12 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 19 matches, scoring 36 and conceding 18, for an average of 1.9 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game. Everton, by contrast, have 6 wins, 2 draws and 11 defeats, with 23 goals scored and 32 conceded, averaging 1.2 for and 1.7 against. The goal difference gap (+18 vs -9) underlines the class difference.
Home and away splits reinforce the pattern. Everton’s home record is weak: 2 wins, 0 draws and 7 losses from 9 at Goodison Park, with 9 scored and 18 conceded (1.0 vs 2.0 per match). Chelsea’s away record is robust: 4 wins, 4 draws and just 1 defeat from 9, with 17 scored and 10 conceded (1.9 vs 1.1). Chelsea are used to controlling games on the road, while Everton tend to be exposed at home.
Recent form over the last five matches slightly narrows the gap but still favours the away side. Everton’s last five show 60% form with 7 goals scored and 6 conceded (1.4 vs 1.2 per match), indicating some improvement and better defensive resilience than their season-long numbers. Chelsea’s last five are stronger still: 87% form, 11 scored and 5 conceded (2.2 vs 1.0). The comparison metrics in the prediction model give Chelsea the edge in attack (61% vs 39%) and defence (55% vs 45%), as well as overall form (59% vs 41%).
Head-to-Head Data
Head-to-head data, excluding friendlies, confirms Chelsea’s historical dominance despite Everton’s recent upset. In FA WSL play, Chelsea beat Everton 5-0 at Goodison Park on 3 November 2024, 2-1 at Kingsmeadow on 16 February 2025, and also 3-0 at Kingsmeadow on 4 February 2024, 3-0 at Walton Hall Park on 12 November 2023, 7-0 at Kingsmeadow on 7 May 2023, 3-1 at Walton Hall Park on 16 October 2022, and 3-0 at Walton Hall Park on 16 March 2022. The notable exception came on 7 December 2025 in the FA WSL, when Everton won 1-0 away at Kingsmeadow, leading 1-0 at half-time and holding on. In cup competitions, Chelsea beat Everton 1-0 away at Walton Hall Park in the FA Women’s Cup quarter-finals on 10 March 2024, and 4-1 at Kingsmeadow in the FA Women’s Cup 5th Round on 9 February 2025. Across these competitive meetings, Chelsea have taken the vast majority of wins, with Everton’s December 2025 victory standing out as a rare success.
Prediction Model
The prediction model quantifies this edge: Chelsea are given a 45% win probability, Everton just 10%, with the draw also at 45%. The Poisson-based comparison allocates 79% to Chelsea versus 21% to Everton, and the overall comparison index is 69.0% Chelsea vs 31.0% Everton. The recommended betting angle from the official prediction is “Double chance: draw or Chelsea W,” consistent with a strong away favourite but with some acknowledgement of Everton’s recent improvement and their shock win in December 2025.
The odds market reflects a very similar story. Across major bookmakers, Chelsea are around 1.22–1.26 to win, implying roughly a 78–82% raw probability before margin. Everton are priced between 7.90 and 11.00, and the draw between 5.00 and 5.98, both indicating that the home win and stalemate are considered outside outcomes. Given those prices, the model’s advice to take a safety net around Chelsea rather than chase a big home upset is logical.
Betting verdict: the data-backed play is to follow the official advice and back Chelsea on the double chance (draw or Chelsea). For those seeking a more aggressive angle in line with probabilities and head-to-head trends, Chelsea to win at roughly 1.23–1.26 is justified, but the most aligned position with the prediction JSON is to stay on the conservative side and protect against a stalemate. A likely score profile is a low-to-medium margin Chelsea success, with Everton’s attack capable of making it competitive but their defence still vulnerable over 90 minutes.
