England's World Cup Path Opens with Favorable Draw
By the time Gareth Southgate stepped down, he had become England’s most successful modern-era manager, though many criticized him for seemingly benefiting from easy tournament draws. His tenure saw England face teams like Colombia and Sweden in the 2018 World Cup knockout stages before losing to Croatia in the semifinals. In Euro tournaments of 2021 and 2024, England advanced through knockout rounds against opponents viewed as less challenging, including Slovakia, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Germany, Ukraine, and Denmark. Despite this progress, reaching a final wasn’t enough to satisfy fans and critics alike, and expectations grew sharply over six years.
If Southgate was thought to have lucked out in draws, what about his successor, Thomas Tuchel? His squad has already defeated Mexico at the high-altitude Azteca Stadium, a significant hurdle. With Brazil eliminated, does that make Tuchel fortunate too?
Looking Ahead: England’s Advantageous Half of the Draw
Tuchel benefits from the fact that top-tier teams like France, Spain, and Morocco lie on the opposite side of the bracket. These three are all ranked among the world’s top six. England’s potential path to the final appears easier by comparison.
England’s next opponent is Norway, led by the formidable Erling Haaland, who has been one of the tournament’s standout scorers. Norway also boasts Arsenal captain Martin Odegaard and other solid Premier League players. If England advances past Norway in Miami on Saturday, they could meet either Argentina or Switzerland in the semifinal in Atlanta.
The Challenge of Norway, Argentina, and Switzerland
Argentina, reigning champions and still powered by Lionel Messi at 39, bring experience and craft honed from their Qatar triumph. Meanwhile, Switzerland remains capable of causing an upset despite not being traditionally recognized for producing football stars, more known for administrators like FIFA presidents Gianni Infantino and Sepp Blatter. It would be remarkable if England faced Switzerland in the semifinal this Sunday.
Assessing Luck via FIFA Rankings
FIFA’s world rankings provide some context for judging how lucky Tuchel’s team might be compared to Southgate’s. Though once ridiculed, the system now offers order in a game played mostly regionally except during major tournaments every four years. It also allows comparisons across different periods.
Before the 2018 World Cup, England’s quarter-final opponent Sweden was ranked 24th globally, Croatia 18th in the semifinals, and England held 13th place. None were heavy favorites then. This time, Norway entered ranked 31st but has exceeded expectations by eliminating Brazil. England, ranked consistently fourth worldwide in the past year, theoretically faces an easier quarter-final tie now than they did in 2018.
Argentina came into this tournament ranked third, while Switzerland was 19th. Having beaten Mexico in the Azteca, England again benefits from a favorable draw. Argentina has struggled to clear knockout hurdles against Cape Verde and Egypt, facing the seventh-highest-ranked quarter-finalist side per FIFA ratings.
Among remaining teams, Norway may hold the lowest ranking despite Haaland’s hot streak and the team’s momentum. The other dangerous contenders cluster on the other half of the bracket. As Southgate often said, teams can only beat the ones placed in front of them. Judgments about difficulty usually emerge after the matches play out.
