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Barcelona vs Alaves Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Barcelona welcome Alaves to Camp Nou on 31 October 2026 in La Liga Regular Season - 11, with the league leaders aiming to extend a blistering start to the campaign. Top of the table with 27 points from 10 matches, Barcelona have been ruthless in front of goal and will look to put on another statement performance in front of their home crowd.

Alaves arrive in Barcelona sitting 7th with 12 points from 10 games – a respectable mid-table position but one that underlines the gap between these sides so far. Having taken just one win from their last five league outings, they face one of the toughest assignments in Spain against a Barcelona team that has already scored 40 goals this season.

With title ambitions on one side and European aspirations on the other, this clash at Camp Nou shapes up as a key reference point for both teams’ seasons. Stats suggest a high-scoring contest, and the betting markets are heavily tilted towards a home win.

Barcelona vs Alaves Key Stats

  • Barcelona sit 1st with 27 points from 10 matches, scoring 40 and conceding 11; Alaves are 7th with 12 points, 14 scored and 11 conceded.
  • In their last five La Liga meetings, Barcelona have won four times, with Alaves’ only victory coming 1-0 at home on 13 May 2026.
  • Barcelona average 4.0 goals scored per league game this season (40 in 10), while Alaves average 1.4 (14 in 10).

Barcelona vs Alaves — Tale of the Tape

  • Position: 1 vs 7
  • Points: 27 vs 12
  • Goals For: 40 vs 14
  • Goals Against: 11 vs 11
  • Clean Sheets: Barcelona 4, Alaves 3 (league statistics)

Barcelona’s dominance in the early part of the campaign is clear. Nine wins and just one defeat from 10 matches underline their consistency, while a goal difference of +29 (40 scored, 11 conceded) is elite even by their own standards. At home they have won four of five, scoring 18 and conceding 6, and they come into this fixture with a long winning streak recently broken only by a single loss.

Alaves, 7th with 12 points, are far more modest but competitive. They have three wins, three draws and four defeats from 10 games, with their defensive record (11 conceded) actually matching Barcelona’s, but the big gap lies in attack: just 14 goals scored. Away from home they have yet to win in four attempts, drawing two and losing two, with only 3 goals scored and 5 conceded. On the numbers, this is a top-tier attack against a mid-table side still searching for an away breakthrough.

Barcelona vs Alaves Key Matchups

Raphinha vs L. Boyé

Raphinha has been the standout attacking force in La Liga so far. In 9 appearances (8 starts, 661 minutes), he has scored 13 goals and provided 3 assists, with an excellent rating of 8.49. He has hit 25 shots with 17 on target, created 18 key passes, and maintains an 83% passing accuracy. Add 3 penalties scored from 3 attempts and it is clear he is Barcelona’s primary goal threat.

For Alaves, L. Boyé is the reference in attack. In 9 starts (728 minutes), he has 5 goals, 0 assists and a solid 7.00 rating. He has 18 shots with 10 on target, 7 key passes and works hard off the ball with 16 tackles and 146 duels contested. While Boyé is productive, the gulf in end product compared with Raphinha is significant – a key factor tilting this matchup heavily in Barcelona’s favour.

Lamine Yamal vs M. Díaz

Lamine Yamal combines creativity and scoring at an elite level. Across 10 appearances and 831 minutes, he has 8 goals and 6 assists, with 41 shots (16 on target), 33 key passes and 67 dribble attempts, 40 successful. His 8.18 rating reflects a complete attacking profile, and he is central to Barcelona’s chance creation and ball progression.

M. Díaz is Alaves’ main creative outlet. In 10 appearances (443 minutes), he has 3 goals and 4 assists, with 10 shots (9 on target) and 5 key passes. Despite starting only 4 matches, he has been very efficient in the final third and carries a 7.06 rating. If Alaves are to threaten on the break or from transitions, Díaz’s productivity will be crucial – but he will be up against a Barcelona side that dominates possession and territory, limiting his opportunities.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

Recent meetings have largely gone Barcelona’s way, though Alaves showed they can spring a surprise with their latest result in Vitoria-Gasteiz.

  • 13 May 2026: Alaves 1-0 Barcelona (La Liga)
  • 29 November 2025: Barcelona 3-1 Alaves (La Liga)
  • 2 February 2025: Barcelona 1-0 Alaves (La Liga)
  • 6 October 2024: Alaves 0-3 Barcelona (La Liga)
  • 3 February 2024: Alaves 1-3 Barcelona (La Liga)

Barcelona vs Alaves Prediction

Stats suggest a match controlled by Barcelona from start to finish. Their league form (9 wins from 10) and attacking numbers – 4.0 goals scored per game, failing to score in none of their fixtures – point towards another high-output performance, especially at Camp Nou. Alaves’ recent five-game snapshot is poor, with only 3 goals scored and 6 conceded, and their away record this season (0 wins in 4) adds to the concerns.

The prediction model gives Barcelona a 45% chance of victory, the draw also at 45%, and Alaves just 10%. Market odds are even more emphatic: home prices range from 1.07 to 1.14, implying roughly 87.7% to 93.5% chance of a Barcelona win, while Alaves are out at 12.52 to 32.04 (about 3.1% to 8.0%). The slight caution in the prediction percentages is likely down to Alaves’ competitive defensive numbers and their recent 1-0 win in May 2026, but across 10 league games Barcelona’s superiority is overwhelming.

With no valid exact score projection from the goals field, a conservative expectation is that Barcelona win by one or two goals while controlling the game. Alaves’ defence can keep games relatively tight, but their limited attacking output away from home makes an upset highly unlikely.

Predicted Score: Barcelona 2-0 Alaves

Barcelona Recent Form

Barcelona’s recent form is outstanding. They have won 9 of their 10 league matches, with only one defeat, and previously put together a nine-game winning streak. Over those 10 games they have scored 40 and conceded just 11, keeping 4 clean sheets and never failing to score. Their last five outings include 19 goals scored (3.8 per game) and 7 conceded, underlining both their attacking firepower and a defence that, while not perfect, is more than solid enough given their scoring output.

Alaves Recent Form

Alaves’ form is mixed. Across 10 league matches they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats, with 14 goals scored and 11 conceded. Their early run included some positive results, but their last five-game snapshot shows just 3 goals scored and 6 conceded, with only a 13 out of 100 form index in the prediction data. Defensively they are not collapsing – 1.1 goals conceded per game is respectable – but their attack is inconsistent, especially away from home where they average only 0.8 goals per match.

Barcelona Possible Starting Lineup

Key available players (grouped by position):
Goalkeepers: D. Livaković, W. Szczęsny, Joan García, Eder Aller, I. Rodriguez
Defenders: Joã o Cancelo, Alejandro Balde, A. Christensen, J. Koundé, Eric García, Pau Cubarsí Paredes, X. Espart, Gerard Martín, J. Pesquer
Midfielders: Pedri, Gavi, F. de Jong, Dani Olmo, Fermín, Rodri, Marc Bernal, M. Catovic, B. Farinas, O. Goren, E. Tunkara
Forwards: Raphinha, Lamine Yamal, Gabriel Jesus, A. Gordon, K. Adeyemi, R. Bardghji, H. Abdelkarim, J. Bisiwu

Barcelona have the depth to rotate but the league statistics suggest a preference for attacking setups, mainly 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. With Raphinha and Lamine Yamal in outstanding form and strong creative support from Pedri, Gavi, Fermín and Dani Olmo, they can field multiple combinations without losing quality. The clean-sheet record and zero games failed to score underline a balanced side that defends from the front and overwhelms opponents with sustained pressure.

Alaves Possible Starting Lineup

Key available players (grouped by position):
Goalkeepers: Sivera, A. Giménez, Rubén Montero, G. Swiderski
Defenders: Jonny, N. Tenaglia, N. Valentini, Yusi, V. Koski, Angel Pérez, A. Rebbach
Midfielders: Carles Aleñá, Antonio Blanco, Guevara, C. Benavídez, Pablo Ibáñez, Selu Diallo, Mikel Rodríguez, Denis Suárez
Forwards: L. Boyé, M. Díaz, Hugo Novoa, Aitor Mañas, Toni Martínez, Miguel Rodríguez

Alaves have alternated between 3-5-2 and 5-3-2, each used in five matches, reflecting a pragmatic, defence-first approach. The attacking burden will fall on L. Boyé and M. Díaz, supported by creative midfielders like Carles Aleñá and Denis Suárez. Angel Pérez offers both defensive work and some playmaking from deeper areas but also carries disciplinary risk with 1 red card already this season. Expect Alaves to sit deep, keep a compact block and try to counter through Boyé and Díaz.

Barcelona Team News

No significant absences reported.

Alaves Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Barcelona:

  • None reported.

Alaves:

  • None reported.

Betting Tips: Barcelona vs Alaves

Exactly 3 distinct betting angles based on current statistics and market prices:

  • Result Tip: Back Barcelona to win. They have 9 wins from 10 league games and average 4.0 goals scored per match, while Alaves are winless away (0 wins in 4). Home odds range from 1.07 to 1.14 across bookmakers, implying roughly 87.7%–93.5% chance of a Barcelona victory, in line with their dominance in standings and recent form.
  • Goals Tip: Over 2.5 total goals. Barcelona’s matches are high scoring, with 8 of their 10 league games seeing at least 3 goals, and they average 4.0 goals scored plus 1.1 conceded per game. Alaves’ defensive record is decent but they concede 1.1 per match and will likely be under heavy pressure at Camp Nou. Look for over 2.5 goals in combination with the strong attacking metrics.
  • Value Tip: Raphinha to score anytime. With 13 goals in 9 appearances, 17 shots on target from 25 attempts, and 3 penalties scored, Raphinha is central to Barcelona’s attacking output. His volume of chances and set-piece duty (including penalties) make him a strong candidate in the goalscorer markets, offering better value than the very short odds on the match result itself.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.

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