What South Africa, South Korea, and Czech Republic Must Do to Reach World Cup Knockouts from Group A

The group stage of the 2026 World Cup is approaching its final matches, with 32 out of 48 teams moving forward. The top two from each group earn automatic qualification, while the eight best third-place teams also advance. This keeps the stakes high for several teams in Group A.

Mexico have already secured their spot in the knockout rounds after victories over South Africa and South Korea. They top the group thanks to a better head-to-head record against South Korea, the only team that could match them on points.

South Korea sits second with three points following their opening win. Both South Africa and Czech Republic have just one point each, leaving all three with a shot at continuing in the tournament.

South Korea’s Path to the Knockouts

Avoiding defeat against South Africa in their final game (Thursday, June 25, 2am BST) guarantees South Korea progress. Winning would push them to six points and cement second place. Even a draw would give them four points, enough to surpass Czech Republic based on their head-to-head advantage.

If they lose, South Africa leapfrog them in the standings, and South Korea would rely on Czech Republic's result versus Mexico to see if finishing third with three points is enough to advance.

What South Africa Must Do

Currently at the bottom with one point from a draw against Czech Republic, South Africa need a victory over South Korea to climb the table. That win would bring them to four points, which may secure at least third place depending on other results.

A loss would likely end their tournament, while a draw leaves them at two points—usually insufficient to qualify as one of the top third-placed teams.

Czech Republic’s Challenging Route

The Czech Republic faces an uphill battle, requiring a win against Mexico to reach four points. Such a result could place them third or among the best third-place finishers.

If South Africa falls to South Korea, the Czechs could claim third with their victory. A draw against Mexico, however, leaves them on two points, probably not enough to advance.

How Ties Are Broken

Points ties are settled first by head-to-head records. If teams share points, the direct results between those teams determine ranking. When more than two teams tie, a mini-league based on their games against each other is created. Rankings here depend on points won, then goal difference, then goals scored within those matches. If still unresolved, overall goal difference and goals scored come next.

Further Tie-Break Criteria

Should teams remain tied after these steps, the Team Conduct Score (fair play points) decides who advances. Each yellow card deducts one point; red cards subtract more, depending on severity. Teams aim to keep this score as close to zero as possible. If equality persists, the higher FIFA ranking from June determines the qualifier.

Ranking the Best Third-Place Teams

The eight highest-ranked third-place teams move on based on total points. If multiple teams tie on points, goal difference will be the decider.

Generally, teams with four or more points are safe, while those on three points will need a strong goal difference to progress.