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Italy vs Türkiye: Nations League Preview, Predictions, and Lineups

Italy concludes a long three-week international break by welcoming Türkiye on Monday in the UEFA Nations League. The Azzurri recently defeated Türkiye 4-1 and followed that with a draw against France, showing signs of stability under Roberto Mancini's renewed leadership after a difficult summer and missing out on the World Cup once again.

Türkiye participated in last summer's World Cup but exited early after a poor group stage performance. Their struggles have continued under Vincenzo Montella, who has seen his team lose three consecutive Nations League matches so far.

Historical Dominance of Italy over Türkiye

This encounter marks the 15th meeting between Italy and Türkiye, with Italy remaining unbeaten throughout their history together since their first match in 1962. Italy has recorded 10 wins and 4 draws against Türkiye.

Match Prediction: Italy Expected to Continue Dominance

Italy enters this game as clear favorites, especially playing at home in Bologna. Türkiye has conceded eight goals in the Nations League and is without key players Kenan Yıldız and Hakan Çalhanoğlu. Even promising talent Arda Güler hasn’t managed to turn their fortunes around.

The Azzurri are coming off two undefeated games and will look to build on their previous dominant 4-1 win over Türkiye, where they surged ahead with a three-goal first half. Their expectation is to add several goals at Stadio Renato Dall’Ara.

  • Head-to-head record: Italy remains unbeaten against Türkiye, winning three of the last four meetings and scoring three or more goals in those victories. Türkiye’s best recent result was a draw in Italy during 2024.
  • Defensive struggles: Türkiye’s defense has been porous, conceding in every World Cup group match and allowing eight goals in matches against Spain last year.
  • Italy’s form: Despite missing the World Cup, Italy has won 10 of its last 14 matches across all competitions.

Prediction: Italy 3–0 Türkiye

Projected Lineups

Italy

Roberto Mancini might tweak his squad following the draw with France but will likely keep much of the starting eleven intact. Gianluigi Donnarumma is expected to remain goalkeeper. Alessandro Bastoni, who scored in the last two games, will anchor the defense alongside Gianluca Mancini, potentially replacing Giorgio Scalvini. Fullback spots should be filled by Premier League players Michael Kayode and Riccardo Calafiori.

In midfield, Sandro Tonali and Davide Frattesi may be joined by Nicolò Barella returning from absence. Up front, the Esposito brothers, Pio and Sebastiano, will likely start alongside Moise Kean.

  • Formation (4-3-3): Donnarumma; Kayode, Mancini, Bastoni, Calafiori; Frattesi, Tonali, Barella; S. Esposito, P. Esposito, Kean

Türkiye

Türkiye must adjust their attack due to suspensions. Arda Güler and Barış Yılmaz are both unavailable, forcing coach Vincenzo Montella to field a weakened forward line. Deniz Gül is expected to lead the attack with Kerem Aktürkoğlu and Yunus Akgün on the wings. Salih Özcan could return to midfield to strengthen defensive cover.

  • Formation (4-3-3): Çakır; Çelik, Demiral, Bardakcı, Kadıoğlu; Elmaz, Özcan, Yüksek; Akgün, Gül, Aktürkoğlu

Match Details

  • Location: Bologna, Italy
  • Stadium: Stadio Renato Dall’Ara
  • Date: Monday, October 5
  • Kick-off Time: 2:45 p.m. ET / 11:45 a.m. PT / 7:45 p.m. BST
  • Referee: Szymon Marciniak (Poland)
  • VAR Official: Piotr Lasyk (Poland)

Viewing Information

  • United States: Fox Sports 2, fuboTV, ViX, Fox One
  • Canada: DAZN Canada, TLN, fuboTV Canada, VIVA
  • Mexico: Sky Sports Mexico, Sky+, izzi
  • United Kingdom: Amazon Prime Video

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