Liam Lawson's Path to a 2027 Formula 1 Deal with Racing Bulls
Liam Lawson has driven himself to the brink of a 2027 Formula 1 race deal with Racing Bulls – and, after Interlagos, it will take a brave Red Bull shareholder to say no.
The final sign-off has not yet come from Red Bull’s main investors, but the internal mood music is clear: Lawson has done enough. The Brazilian Grand Prix weekend, circled in red by decision‑makers as part of a crucial triple‑header audition, has tilted the balance decisively his way.
For weeks, Lawson has lived with the tension of a career-defining call. Racing Bulls’ 2027 line-up has been a straight duel: keep the proven performer, or promote the rising star. On one side, Lawson. On the other, Red Bull junior Nikola Tsolov, tipped as the next name on the production line and potential partner to Arvid Lindblad.
An announcement is expected before the Las Vegas Grand Prix. Inside the paddock, few now expect a twist.
A knife-edge call
This has not been a simple loyalty play. Racing Bulls and Red Bull have pulled apart every option, every scenario, every long-term implication.
Lawson’s case is blunt and powerful. He sits ninth in the drivers’ standings. His points haul has been central to Racing Bulls’ charge to fifth in the constructors’ championship – a position that would mark the team’s best-ever finish and unlock millions of dollars in extra prize money. He’s been the spine of their season.
He also offers something less tangible but just as valuable: a reference point. With Lindblad heading into his second year in F1 in 2027, Lawson gives Racing Bulls a known quantity against which to measure the youngster’s real level and development. For a team trying to work out whether a prospect is Red Bull Racing material, that benchmark matters.
Yet the counter-argument is baked into Red Bull’s identity. The company pours money into its junior programme to feed talent to the main team. Tsolov, currently second in the Formula 2 standings heading into the final rounds in Qatar and Abu Dhabi, is exactly the type of driver that system exists to serve.
If Rafael Camara stays in F1 with Haas, Tsolov could even be left with a clear run at the F2 crown. From Red Bull’s point of view, why wait to test him in F1 if the talent pipeline is supposed to flow relentlessly upward?
There is also the philosophical question: if Racing Bulls is truly a breeding ground for future Red Bull Racing drivers, does Lawson still fit that description? He has already had his shot at the senior team. Some inside the system have asked whether that seat should instead be used on someone who hasn’t.
Triple-header that changed everything
Amid the swirl of speculation at Interlagos, Racing Bulls team principal Alan Permane chose his words carefully. He talked about “applying a little bit of science”, of studying and analysing, of not rushing. It was a reminder that this wasn’t just a gut-feel decision based on one weekend.
Inside the camp, the triple-header of Austin, Mexico City and Brazil had been marked as decisive.
Tsolov did his part. His FP1 outing in Mexico was sharp and assured, a timely reminder of his potential on a weekend when Lawson picked up a grid penalty and even managed to irritate Max Verstappen after their practice clash.
Lawson answered on Sunday. He dragged a strong drive to seventh in the race, stabilising his case just when he needed it.
Then came Interlagos.
Lawson started third, attacked early, and swept past Lando Norris to run as high as second. He eventually slipped back, finishing eighth on the road before being promoted to seventh when Charles Leclerc took a penalty. The raw result only told half the story. The composure, aggression and racecraft under pressure – with his future hanging over him – did the rest.
Inside Red Bull, that weekend is viewed as the performance that made dropping him almost impossible to justify.
Power, politics and praise
Crucially for Lawson, he has a powerful ally. Permane is understood to be firmly in his corner, impressed by the New Zealander’s speed and relentless consistency across the year. That backing has more weight than ever after Permane signed a contract extension as team principal, strengthening his authority within the Red Bull structure.
But this is Red Bull. No team boss decides alone.
Lawson himself has been clear on that point. He has spoken of his appreciation for Permane’s support, of how much he has enjoyed working closely with the team, but he knows the call stretches well beyond the garage. The energy drinks company’s shareholders and the Red Bull F1 organisation both have a voice in who sits in those Racing Bulls seats.
Red Bull team principal Laurent Mekies, meanwhile, has kept a deliberate distance from the final verdict. He has stressed that the Racing Bulls driver choice is “down to Racing Bulls”, with his role limited to offering an opinion when asked. The structure is simple: Racing Bulls develops, Red Bull Racing picks from the best.
Still, Mekies has not hidden his admiration for what Lawson has done this season. He praised another “very strong weekend” in Brazil and highlighted the remarkable contrast between Lawson’s current form and his much earlier, raw appearances in F1. His stand-in work for the injured Isack Hadjar after the summer break only reinforced that impression.
In Mekies’ eyes, the version of Lawson that returned to Racing Bulls was a step up again – and Interlagos was the perfect snapshot of that evolution.
The shareholders’ gamble
Now, the decision sits with the shareholders. Their choice is stark.
On one side: Lawson, proven, productive, already a cornerstone of Racing Bulls’ best campaign in its history. Replacing him with an untested rookie would be a sporting risk and a financial one. The margin between fifth and a lower constructors’ position is counted in millions, not thousands.
On the other: the Red Bull way. Trust the system. Promote the next man up. Back Tsolov’s F2 form and accelerate his development, accepting the turbulence that may come.
It would be unusual for the shareholders to overrule the clear preference emerging from within the team – especially so soon after doubling down on Permane with a fresh contract. Unusual, but not impossible.
Permane dropped a hint of his own last weekend, suggesting the final decision would leave “everyone” happy. The paddock read that as a sign Lawson would stay, with Tsolov integrated in a way that keeps his trajectory intact.
One logical compromise has been floated: Lawson and Lindblad race in 2027, while Tsolov takes on a reserve role, embedded in the team, running all four mandated rookie practice sessions and learning the ropes from inside the operation. A year of immersion without the full glare of a race seat.
That concept, though, is not believed to be under serious consideration in its long-term “2028 guaranteed” form. The focus remains firmly on 2027.
Lawson waits – but the paddock has spoken
For all the noise, Lawson is refusing to count anything as done until the ink dries. He has seen too much of the sport’s ruthlessness to relax now.
He is, however, fully aware of the groundswell around him. In the paddock, the prevailing view is blunt: dropping him after this season would be madness. Lawson has admitted he has seen the messages of support over the past few weeks and that they mean something, even if they don’t carry the same weight as a contract.
For now, he has boiled his approach down to something simple. Drive the car. Deliver. Let the lap times do the talking while the boardrooms debate the rest.
The science has been run. The triple-header audition is over. If Red Bull really believes in rewarding performance, the next signature on a Racing Bulls contract should be a formality – or the start of a very different conversation about what its junior philosophy truly stands for.
