Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán stages a meeting of very different La Liga realities in April 2026 as 17th‑placed Sevilla host 4th‑placed Atletico Madrid on matchday 31. For the home side, this is about survival: they sit just above the relegation zone on 31 points with a goal difference of -13. Atletico, on 57 points and currently in the Champions League positions, are fighting to lock in a top‑four finish and, ideally, push higher.
With only eight league games left, the stakes are clear. Sevilla need to turn a poor run into points on home soil, while Atletico cannot afford slips if they are to stay in the Champions League race.
Form and tactical backdrop
Across all phases this season, Sevilla’s record underlines why they are in trouble: 8 wins, 7 draws and 15 defeats from 30 league matches, with 37 goals scored and 50 conceded. The form guide reads “LLLDD”, just 2 points from the last 5 league outings. At home in the league, they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses from 15 games, scoring 19 and conceding 22. That is a fragile base for a club used to competing for Europe.
The numbers sketch a side that scores at a reasonable clip (1.2 goals per game across all phases) but leaks heavily (1.7 against). Their biggest home win is 4-0, but they have also suffered a 0-3 defeat in front of their own fans, and they have failed to score in 4 of 15 home matches. Clean sheets at the Sánchez Pizjuán are rare (just 2).
Tactically, Sevilla have searched for solutions all season. The most common shape is 4‑2‑3‑1 (11 uses), but they have also tried 3‑4‑2‑1, 5‑3‑2, 3‑4‑3 and 3‑5‑2 among others. That level of tactical churn suggests a coach still looking for balance between protecting a vulnerable defence and getting enough bodies forward. Given their defensive record and the quality of Atletico’s transitions, a more conservative setup with an extra centre‑back or a double pivot shielding the back line is likely.
Atletico, by contrast, arrive with a strong body of work. In the league they have 17 wins, 6 draws and 7 defeats from 30 games, scoring 50 and conceding 30. Their form line “LLWWW” shows they have responded well after a wobble, taking 9 points from the last 3 matches and re‑establishing momentum.
The pattern of their season is clear: formidable at home, solid but less dominant away. On their travels they have 4 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats from 14 matches, with 15 scored and 16 conceded. That is only slightly negative on goal difference, but a far cry from their 13‑1‑2 home record. Diego Simeone’s side are still difficult to break down (1.0 goal conceded per game across all phases), but they do not impose themselves away from Madrid as relentlessly as at the Metropolitano.
Simeone’s tactical base is the familiar 4‑4‑2, used 20 times this season, with occasional switches to 5‑3‑2 or 4‑1‑4‑1. Expect the usual compact mid‑block, aggressive duels in midfield and fast use of the wide areas to feed their forwards. With 50 goals scored at an average of 1.7 per match, Atletico have enough firepower to punish any Sevilla mistakes.
Key players and attacking threats
The standout individual in the data is Alexander Sørloth, Atletico’s leading scorer in La Liga 2025 with 10 goals from 29 appearances. He has taken 44 shots, 28 of them on target, underlining his ability to get into high‑quality finishing positions. At 196 cm, he offers a major aerial threat and is central to Atletico’s direct play: long diagonals, early crosses and set pieces will all be aimed at him.
Sørloth’s physical presence will be particularly significant given Sevilla’s defensive absences and instability. Atletico’s penalty record this season (2 taken, 2 scored) is perfect at team level, but Sørloth himself has not scored from the spot, so his threat is overwhelmingly in open play and from crosses.
Sevilla’s scoring has been more evenly spread; there is no Sevilla player in the top‑scorers list provided. Their 37 league goals suggest they can hurt teams when their attacking structure clicks, especially at home, but the lack of a dominant finisher places more weight on collective movements and set‑piece routines rather than one talismanic striker.
Team news and selection issues
Both sides have significant absentees that could shape the tactical picture.
For Sevilla:
- J. A. Carmona is suspended (yellow cards).
- Marcao is out with a knee injury.
- T. Nianzou is suspended (red card).
- C. Azpilicueta is listed as questionable (injury).
That is a heavy hit to the defensive unit. With Marcao and Nianzou unavailable and Azpilicueta doubtful, Sevilla’s options at centre‑back and right‑back are stretched. It may force them towards a back four with makeshift cover, or a back three that leans on less experienced players. Either way, structural cohesion at the back is a concern, especially against an opponent strong in the air and on set plays.
For Atletico Madrid:
- N. Gonzalez is suspended (red card).
- Koke is suspended (yellow cards).
- P. Barrios, J. Cardoso, J. M. Gimenez, D. Hancko and Jan Oblak are all questionable with various injuries.
Koke’s absence removes Atletico’s primary organiser in midfield and a key set‑piece taker. That could reduce their control in central areas and force Simeone to adjust his midfield pairing and leadership structure. If Gimenez and Hancko are not fit, Atletico’s central defence loses experience and aerial dominance, which is especially relevant against Sevilla’s set‑piece threat. Any absence for Oblak would also be significant, although Atletico’s defensive system often protects their goalkeeper well.
Even so, Atletico’s squad depth is greater than Sevilla’s, and they are more used to rotating around injuries and suspensions while maintaining their identity.
Head‑to‑head narrative
The recent competitive head‑to‑head record is tilted firmly towards Atletico. The last five meetings, all in La Liga or Copa del Rey, read:
- Nov 2025: Atletico Madrid 3-0 Sevilla (La Liga, in Madrid)
- Apr 2025: Sevilla 1-2 Atletico Madrid (La Liga, in Seville)
- Dec 2024: Atletico Madrid 4-3 Sevilla (La Liga, in Madrid)
- Feb 2024: Sevilla 1-0 Atletico Madrid (La Liga, in Seville)
- Jan 2024: Atletico Madrid 1-0 Sevilla (Copa del Rey quarter‑final in Madrid)
Across those five competitive fixtures, Atletico have 4 wins, Sevilla 1, and there have been 0 draws. Sevilla’s only success in this run was a tight 1-0 home victory in February 2024. Since then, Atletico have won three straight, including back‑to‑back league wins and a Copa del Rey tie, scoring 9 goals in those three games.
Notably, the last three league meetings have all been high‑scoring affairs from Atletico’s perspective (4-3, 2-1, 3-0), highlighting their ability to open Sevilla up, especially as the game becomes stretched.
Tactical keys to the match
- Sevilla’s defensive structure vs Sørloth’s presence With multiple defensive absentees, Sevilla must find a way to protect the central corridor and deal with crosses. Dropping the defensive line a little deeper, doubling up on Sørloth and being extremely disciplined on set pieces will be essential.
- Midfield control without Koke Atletico’s ability to dictate tempo may be reduced. Sevilla’s double pivot, in whatever shape they choose, has an opportunity to disrupt Atletico’s build‑up and force longer balls. If Sevilla can win second balls and transition quickly, they can test an Atletico defence that is less dominant away from home.
- Sevilla’s need for balance The hosts must chase points but cannot afford to turn the game into a chaotic end‑to‑end contest, where Atletico’s efficiency in transition would be decisive. Expect Sevilla to start with caution, looking to stay in the game for as long as possible and then increase risk in the final half‑hour if needed.
- Set pieces at both ends With Sevilla’s defensive reshuffle and Atletico potentially missing key defenders and Koke, dead‑ball situations could be decisive. Atletico’s height and delivery normally give them an edge, but any disruption to their usual routines could level that area slightly.
The verdict
On league form, squad depth and recent head‑to‑head record, Atletico Madrid are clear favourites. They have 26 more points than Sevilla, a much better goal difference (+20 vs -13) and have beaten Sevilla in four of the last five competitive meetings, including the last three in a row.
However, Atletico’s away record is only modest and they travel without Koke and N. Gonzalez, with doubts over several key defensive figures. Sevilla, desperate for points and backed by the Sánchez Pizjuán crowd, are unlikely to surrender meekly.
Logic points to Atletico’s greater quality and organisation eventually telling, but the context suggests a tighter contest than the league table alone implies. A narrow Atletico win or a hard‑fought draw feels the most plausible outcome, with Sevilla’s survival fight and Atletico’s top‑four ambitions ensuring an intense, high‑stakes evening in Seville.
