Playing at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán in La Liga’s Regular Season - 31, this is a classic six‑pointer with very different ceilings: Sevilla are fighting to stay clear of the drop, while Atletico Madrid are trying to lock in Champions League football. In the league phase, Sevilla sit 17th with 31 points from 30 matches, only just above the danger zone, and arrive on a worrying “LLLDD” run. Atletico are 4th on 57 points, with a “LLWWW” sequence that has re‑energised their top‑four push.
The first leg and recent head‑to‑head pressure
Atletico Madrid’s 3-0 victory in the first leg puts Sevilla in a fragile position. That November match in Madrid underlined the gulf: Atletico scored three times after the break, while Sevilla failed to respond and never led. The sides were level at 0-0 at HT, but Atletico’s ability to raise the tempo in the second half exposed Sevilla’s defensive frailty.
Looking at the most recent five competitive meetings (the atomic five):
- 2025 La Liga in Madrid: Atletico 3-0 Sevilla
- 2025 La Liga in Sevilla: Sevilla 1-2 Atletico
- 2024 La Liga in Madrid: Atletico 4-3 Sevilla
- 2024 La Liga in Sevilla: Sevilla 1-0 Atletico
- 2024 Copa del Rey quarter‑final in Madrid: Atletico 1-0 Sevilla
Atletico have won four of these five, with Sevilla’s only success that 1-0 home win in February 2024. Across this set, Atletico have scored 10 goals to Sevilla’s 5, averaging 2.0 goals per game against 1.0 for Sevilla. For Sevilla, the pattern is clear: when they keep Atletico to zero or one goal, they can compete; once Atletico reach two or more, Sevilla have been unable to match them.
This recent history shapes the psychological stakes. Atletico come in knowing they can score freely against this opponent, home or away. Sevilla, by contrast, are under pressure not only to take points for survival but to reverse a trend of being outgunned in this matchup.
The global picture: league phase vs all phases
In the league phase, Sevilla’s position is precarious. They have 8 wins, 7 draws and 15 losses from 30 games, with a goal difference of -13 (37 scored, 50 conceded). At home, they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats from 15 matches, with 19 goals for and 22 against. That is 1.3 goals scored and about 1.5 conceded per home game across all phases of the competition, underlining why they are hovering just above the relegation places.
Across all phases of the competition, Sevilla’s statistical profile is consistent with a lower‑table side: only 5 clean sheets in 30, and they have failed to score in 7 matches. Their best home win is 4-0, but their heaviest home defeat is 0-3, showing a wide volatility that is dangerous this late in the calendar year’s league schedule. A defeat here could leave them relying on other results and increase the probability that the final matchdays become a survival scramble.
For Atletico, the numbers tell the story of a genuine Champions League contender. In the league phase they have 17 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses, with 50 goals scored and 30 conceded. Their home form is elite (13 wins from 16), but their away record is more modest: 4 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats, with 15 scored and 16 conceded. That 1.1 goals scored and 1.1 conceded away across all phases of the competition suggests they are far less dominant on the road.
Still, across all phases of the competition, Atletico have produced 12 clean sheets in 30 matches and failed to score only 4 times. Their biggest away win is 0-3, while their worst away loss is 3-0 – exactly the kind of swing that can decide a tight top‑four race. With 57 points, they are in the Champions League places but cannot afford many slips, especially given the competitive pack around them in the 2025 edition.
Verdict: what each result means for the season
For Sevilla, a win would be season‑defining. Three points would likely push them several places clear of immediate relegation danger, transform “LLLDD” into a platform for a late‑year recovery, and deliver a psychological boost by avenging the 3-0 defeat in Madrid. It would also reinforce the Sánchez Pizjuán as a survival fortress, where they already take a higher share of their points.
A draw would be acceptable but risky. Moving to 32 points from 31 matches keeps them just ahead of the bottom group but does little to change momentum or goal difference. Given their negative trend and difficult fixtures remaining, failing to win at home could mean that safety is not in their own hands later in the league phase.
A defeat, especially by multiple goals, would be deeply damaging. Staying on 31 points while others around them play could drag them into the bottom three, and another loss to this specific opponent would reinforce doubts about their defensive structure and resilience. It would also push their goal difference further negative, which could be decisive if teams finish level on points.
For Atletico Madrid, a victory would strongly consolidate their Champions League target. Reaching 60 points after 31 matches would keep them on course for a top‑four finish in the 2025 edition, and an away win at a desperate opponent would show they can translate home dominance into reliable road results. It would also extend their strong run (“LLWWW” would become four wins in a row), increasing confidence for the run‑in.
A draw would not be catastrophic but would slow their trajectory. At 58 points, Atletico would remain in the top four but invite pressure from rivals. Given Sevilla’s struggles, dropping two points here would be seen as a missed opportunity and would keep the margin for error very thin in the final weeks.
A loss would be a major setback. Staying on 57 points opens the door for challengers to overtake them, potentially dropping them out of the Champions League places. It would also reinforce the narrative of an inconsistent away side and place added weight on every remaining home game. In a tight top‑four race, failing to take anything from a 17th‑placed team could be the result that is remembered if Atletico fall short of their primary seasonal goal.
