Newcastle host Everton at St. James' Park on 28 February 2026 in a Premier League clash between two mid‑table sides separated by just one point (Everton 9th on 37, Newcastle 11th on 36). Despite the table being tight, bookmakers clearly side with the hosts: home win is around 1.70–1.75, with the draw near 4.00 and Everton out at 4.40–5.00.
However, the official prediction model points the other way. It gives only a 10% chance to Newcastle, with draw and Everton each at 45%, and explicitly advises “Double chance: draw or Everton”. That stance is strongly underpinned by current form and underlying numbers.
Current Form
Newcastle come in on a terrible run, with just 20% form over their last five and a defensive collapse: 12 goals conceded in those games (2.4 per match). Over the season they allow 1.5 goals per home game and score 1.8, but their recent trend is negative and their league form string is heavily loss‑laden. Crucially, they are without Bruno Guimarães – their top scorer (9 goals, 4 assists) and a key creative hub – plus several other absentees (E. Krafth, V. Livramento, L. Miley, F. Schar), which weakens both spine and depth.
Everton, by contrast, show 33% recent form with a far more solid defensive profile: just 0.9 goals conceded on average away and 12 allowed in 13 away matches. They also have nine clean sheets overall, indicating a robust structure. Their away attack is modest (1.0 goals per game), but they rarely get blown away and are particularly strong late on, with 32.14% of their league goals coming between 76–90 minutes. Head‑to‑head is also tilted towards Everton in the model’s comparison (62% vs 38%), and they have taken points in each of the last four league meetings (W2 D2), including a 4–1 win earlier this season and a 1–0 victory at St. James’ Park last term.
Prediction
The official prediction is clear: Everton to avoid defeat, with a draw or away win the recommended angle. Given Newcastle’s poor form, defensive frailty, and the absence of Bruno Guimarães, a low‑scoring stalemate fits the statistical profile. A 1–1 scoreline aligns with Everton’s typical away output (1.0 scored, 0.9 conceded) and Newcastle’s 1.8 for / 1.5 against at home, tempered by their current slump.
Betting Perspective
From a betting perspective, the value lies in opposing the short‑priced home win. The market makes Newcastle around 1.70–1.75 (e.g. 1.70 at Bet365, 1.72 at Marathonbet, 1.75 at 1xBet), while Everton are pushed out to 4.70–5.00 (4.70 at Unibet, 4.70 at Pinnacle, 5.00 at Betfair) and the draw trades between 3.80 and 4.16. In line with the model’s “Double chance: draw or Everton” advice, the most rational strategy is to back Everton on the double‑chance market (X2), leveraging their superior form and defensive stability against an overrated, injury‑hit Newcastle side.
