Real Madrid host Benfica in Madrid on 25 February 2026 in a UEFA Champions League Round of 32 second-leg clash. The prediction model leans strongly towards the hosts avoiding defeat, with a “Double chance: Real Madrid or draw” recommendation and probabilities of 45% home, 45% draw and just 10% away. Bookmakers clearly back Real Madrid as heavy favourites, with home odds clustered around 1.50–1.58 and Benfica pushed out to 4.94–5.88.
Real Madrid’s European body of work fully supports the model’s stance. They sit higher in the Champions League standings (9th vs Benfica’s 24th), with 15 points, a +9 goal difference and no draws in eight games (5 wins, 3 losses). At home they have won 3 of 4, scoring 10 and conceding only 4, an average of 2.5 goals for and 1.0 against. Overall, they score 2.4 goals per game and concede 1.3, with over 1.5 goals landing in 5 of 9 matches.
Benfica, by contrast, have been far less convincing away from Lisbon: just 2 wins in 6 road games, scoring only 4 goals (0.7 per game) and conceding 6. Their overall goal difference is negative (-2), with 10 goals for and 12 against in the league table sample, and under 2.5 goals in 12 of 13 matches according to their under/over profile. That limited attacking output is a concern against a side boasting Kylian Mbappé, the competition’s top scorer with 13 goals in 8 appearances.
Head-to-head data is balanced over the two recent meetings (one win each), but the latest game on 17 February saw Real Madrid win 1–0 away, underlining their superior attacking edge in tight Champions League nights. Injuries hurt both sides, yet the absences of J. Bellingham and Rodrygo are mitigated by Real’s depth and the form of Mbappé and Vinícius Júnior. Benfica also miss N. Felix and G. Prestianni, while key creator F. Aursnes is only questionable, further limiting their offensive ceiling.
The model’s advice is “Double chance: Real Madrid or draw”, effectively opposing the Benfica win. Given Real’s strong home scoring rate (2.5) against Benfica’s modest away average (0.7), a controlled 2–0 home victory aligns best with the numbers and the recent 1–0 in Lisbon. From a betting perspective, the pure home win offers the clearest value within that double-chance framework: Marathonbet’s 1.56, Pinnacle’s 1.54 or 1xBet’s 1.58 on Real Madrid to win look justified by their superior attack and Benfica’s weak away record.
