West Ham host Manchester United at London Stadium in a Premier League Round 26 clash on 10 February 2026. The stakes are high at both ends of the table: West Ham sit 18th on 23 points and are fighting to escape the relegation zone, while Manchester United are 4th with 44 points and targeting Champions League qualification. Recent head-to-head history is fairly balanced: in the last five meetings in all competitions, United have two wins, West Ham two wins, and one draw, including a 1-1 draw at Old Trafford earlier this season.
Team analysis
Form and momentum clearly favor Manchester United. Their league form line of “WWWWD” underlines strong consistency, with only five losses in 25 games and a +10 goal difference (46 scored, 36 conceded). West Ham, by contrast, are struggling: 18th with a -17 goal difference, only six wins from 25, and a season-long form string littered with defeats. Their recent five-game league form of “WLWWL” is slightly improved, but still erratic.
At home, West Ham have been porous: 26 goals conceded in 12 league games, an average of 2.2 per home match, while scoring 1.3. They have failed to keep a single home clean sheet (0 home clean sheets from 12), and 16 of their 25 league games have seen the opposition score at least twice (goalsAgainst over 1.5 in 16/25). This leaky defense is a serious concern against a United attack averaging 1.8 goals per game overall and 1.8 away.
Manchester United’s away record (4 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats) is solid rather than dominant, but they score regularly: 21 goals in 12 away games. Defensively, they concede 1.8 per away match, suggesting an open game rather than a cagey one. Importantly, their key attacking pieces are available: top scorer B. Mbeumo (9 league goals) and top creator Bruno Fernandes (6 goals, 12 assists) are not listed among the absentees. United’s injury list is focused on P. Dorgu, M. Mount and M. de Ligt; none are their primary scorer or assist leader.
West Ham at least have their main threat fit: J. Bowen has 8 goals and 2 assists in 25 appearances and will be central to their hopes of exploiting United’s occasionally fragile away defending. However, the Hammers are weakened by the absence of experienced goalkeeper L. Fabianski and defender J. Todibo (suspended), which further undermines a back line already conceding nearly two goals per game.
Verdict & score prediction
The statistics suggest a high-scoring contest: West Ham’s home games average 3.5 goals (1.3 for, 2.2 against), while United’s away games average 3.6 (1.8 for, 1.8 against). Form points strongly to Manchester United, and history is roughly even, so psychology does not override the numbers.
Most likely outcome: Manchester United win, with both teams scoring.
Predicted score: West Ham 1–3 Manchester United.
Odds angle
Based purely on the provided data and relative strengths, a reasonable model-style pricing would lean towards:
- Home win probability: low (around 20–22%) given West Ham’s defensive record and league position.
- Draw probability: moderate (around 24–26%), reflecting United’s five away draws in 12.
- Away win probability: clearly highest (around 52–56%), supported by their “WWWWD” form and superior goal metrics.
Translating that into indicative fair odds (without margin):
- West Ham win: roughly 4.5–5.0
- Draw: roughly 3.7–4.0
- Manchester United win: roughly 1.8–1.9
Goal markets would tilt towards over 2.5 goals, given West Ham’s 1.3 scored and 2.2 conceded per home match and United’s 1.8 scored and 1.8 conceded away. A data-driven model would likely rate:
- Over 2.5 goals as more probable than under (fair odds in the 1.70–1.80 range).
- Both Teams To Score as a strong candidate (West Ham rarely keep clean sheets, United concede in most away games), with fair odds around 1.70–1.80.
The statistics suggest the value zone is Manchester United to win in a game with goals, with 1–3 to the visitors a logical scoreline based on the goal averages and current form.
